百利天下2016-06-03更新GMAT作文机经
34. 汽车旅馆(2次)
【本月寂静】
作文：一个motel一个inn，motel的service面向全部顾客收费，不管用不用;inn要豪华的多，service价格也高，但是只针对要用的人收费。结论，manager说motel也要用这个方法来吸引顾客and increase profit margin.
V2
作文题目是汽车旅馆ambassador和restaway那个。
【考古】
【V1】Restaway Motel的manager发表了一个东东：Restaway Motel一直都是提供complimentary local phone calls，breakfast etc的service。但是many guests don't take advantage这些service。这样很浪费钱。more luxious Ambassador's hotel across the town does better business， 他们的这些service都是bill seperately的，这样一来不用这些 service 的guests就可以不用share the expense了。很显然，Ambassador生意更好是因为他们provide better deal to guests by billing seperately for那些service。所以Restaway也要follow他们的policy，这样一来可以attract more customers并且更profitable。
【V2】Restaway Motel一直都是提供complimentary local phone calls，breakfast etc的service。但是many guests don't take advantage这些service。这样很浪费钱。More luxurious Ambassador's hotel across the town does better business，他们的这些service都是bill separately的，这样一来不用这些 service 的guests就可以不用share the expense了。很显然，Ambassador生意更好是因为他们provide better deal to guests by billing separately for那些service。所以Restaway也要follow他们的policy，这样一来可以attract more customers并且更profitable。
参考思路
1. 无效类比：A，M客户群体不同，相同的策略不适合使用。
2. 影响因素：Inn赢利不一定是因为不提供那些免费项目，有可能是其他因素，比如高房费。
3. 这种方法不能就保证带来更好的效益，比如要住motel的顾客是刚性需求，价格降低无法吸引更多的入住人数，这样低房价的计划反而是motel效益受损。
4. 选择入住Ambassader Inn的人可能本身就倾向于去使用那些设施，所以即使分开服务费，也能收到钱，但是住motel的人为了省房费可能就真的不去了，这样的损失可能都超过入住人数提高带来的利润。
35. 高档化妆品
【本月寂静】
作文：一个卖欧洲luxury cosmetics的公司的CEO说：“为什么我们产品在欧洲卖这么好，到了美国就销量这么低?我们应该和美国知名的distribution公司合作，因为这个公司有丰富的经验，和美国很多个discount的化妆品牌子有合作，并且在很多城市都开设了discount store.结论就是，和这个distributor合作，是best way to improve sales in U.S.!!"
思路：
1) logical leap : 一个high-end的化妆品牌子在折扣店里卖会影响brand value, 并且让欧洲顾客觉得很困惑，说好的luxury呢，你给美国人卖这么便宜，我们也要降价!
2) weak assumption: distribution不是唯一 一个会影响sales的呀因素呀，advertisement, promotion schemes, price 。。 (欧洲人和美国人也肤质不一样?哈哈我瞎扯的)
3) overall marketing strategy 应该和公司的发展方向吻合，也可以做survey调查清楚美国的市场情况，饱和了没有，等等等等。。。
【考古】
Kalloni公司CEO写了一封信，内容是Kalloni是一家欧洲的luxury & environmental friendly 化妆品公司，在欧洲很成功，但是在美国却打不开局面。因此公司决定与名叫 Mega-Beauty Inc.的美国 discount brand 化妆品 distributor 合作，因为 M-B 公司在美国拥有强大的销售网络，公司认为此次合作可以帮助 Kalloni 在美国取得成功。
A letter from CEO of Kalloni's: Out luxury, environmental friendly cosmetic products are well known and successful in Europe, but we hardly sell in the US market. I recommend partnering with Mega Beauty, a major distributor of 20 national discount brands in over 1500 discount stores in US. With its network,I believe that it can provide best prospects for Kalloni’s long-term prospects and profitability.
主要攻击的点
1. Mega Beauty代理的是discount品牌，而且都是在低廉的打折商铺。Kalloni是主打luxury的化妆品品牌，所以用Mega Beauty作代理商不但不一定会Boost sales因为去打折商铺的customers不会willing to pay premiums for luxury cosmetics，而且会从此降低Kalloni''s的形象(从高档化妆品perceived as cheap one) — 没有完全用七宗罪里面的套，但是从商科的角度看，第一反应就是这点错得最明显。
2. No comprehensive analysis of the fundamental reasons why Kalloni's did not sell well previously. 如果是其他因素导致了poor sales performance, 例如美国的law对some ingredients in their products有restriction，或者美国的顾客现在主要preference不在luxury, environmental friendly的产品，那么partnership也不会有expected result
3. No causal link between partnership and future profitability: 未来的external市场情况还有公司internal operation可能有问题，even if partnership是正确的strategy, 这些因素还是会jeopardize 公司长远盈利能力。所以premature to conclude that…
参考思路：
1. 无理由假设：奢侈化妆品和低端化妆品的受众不同，销售渠道及方法也不同，不能简单认为两者的合作可以促进高端化妆品的销售。有可能的结果是高端化妆品与低端产品合作之后，影响高端产品在消费者心目中的形象，从而负面影响销售量。
2. 时地全等：从现在的发展情况无法推出未来的发展趋势，所以说两者的合作会对公司长期发展有帮助的说法是错误的。
3. 因果关系——忽略它因：影响利润的因素很多，还包括生产成本，与 mega beauty合作的成本等，不能简单认为两者合作就一定对未来的利润有帮助。
36. 柠檬涨价
【本月寂静】
Price of citrus fruit has increased from 3 cents 11 years ago to 50 cents. And over the last eleven years, there has only been one year that the weather was bad. So we should implement regulations to prevent further price inflation from the growers. State the underlying assumption, do you agree with the editorial, on what points do you disagree?
参考思路：
1) 我说的是，price increase不能光看weather condition，还要看inevitable costs：fertilizers，herbicides的价格的增长啊，growers没有理由去完全absorb这个cost的increase;
2) 第二，这个price其实也不一定是inflated price，因为大家都知道price是由supply跟demand来决定的, 所以这可能是一个fair representation of the fair market price.
3) 第三，11年内，growers肯定要maximize他们的profit，所以他们肯定有用technological improvement去maximize他们的productivity跟efficiency，那么价格肯定会上升，同时，quality可能也在提升，那么price的增长对消费者就是合理的了。
4) 然后最后一个paragraph，我就用clearly打头总结了上面说的三点。(我没有看过template，所以大家就随便看看吧)
【考古】
The following is taken from an editorial in a local newspaper:
"Over the past decade, the price per pound of citrus fruit has increased substantially. Eleven years ago, Megamart charged 15 cents a pound for lemons, but today it commonly charges over a dollar a pound. In only one of these last 11 years was the weather unfavorable for growing citrus crops. Evidently, then, citrus growers have been responsible for the excessive increase in the price of citrus fruit, and strict pricing regulations are needed to prevent them from continuing to inflate prices."
Citrus fruit: 柑橘类水果，包括Calamondin，Citron，Clementine，Grapefruit，Lemon，Lime，Orange等
参考思路
1. Causal oversimplification：天气并不是唯一影响因素，比如环境保护，加工价格上升，人力成本上升，或者通货膨胀，Monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions the growers’desire for increased profits.
2. 充分条件：Only way to combat increased price is through government intervention.
3. 无关假设：天气好，果树的产量一定高。因为种植柑橘的农民已经动用了可用的资源了， 产量无法再多
4. 错误类别 or Hasty generalization：柠檬不能与其他橘类水果类比，或者说，柠檬有其特殊性，譬如柠檬都是进口的，比较贵。
参考例文
In this editorial the author argues for the imposition of strict pricing regulations in order to deal with continued inflation of prices of citrus fruit. The need for such regulation is supported by the author’s contention that citrus growers have been unnecessarily raising prices of citrus fruit in the past. The evidence for this allegation is the fact that the price of lemons at Megamart has increased from 15 cents per pound to over a dollar a pound during the preceding 11-year period. The author maintains that this increase is unjustifiable because weather conditions have been favorable to citrus production in all but one of those years. This argument is flawed for several reasons.
First and foremost, the author assumes that the only factor that influences the price of citrus fruit is the weather. Other factors such as monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions are completely ignored as possible sources for the increase. The charge that citrus growers have unnecessarily raised prices can be sustained only if these and other possible factors can be completely ruled out as contributing to the price increases. Since the author fails to address these factors, the recommendation calling for strict pricing regulations can be dismissed out of hand as frivolous.
Second, the author assumes that the only way to combat increased prices is through government intervention. In a free enterprise system many other means of affecting the pricing of goods are available. For example, boycotting a product and thereby influencing supply and demand conditions of the commodity is an effective means of influencing the price of the product. In a free market economy, the call for price regulation by the government should occur only when all other means to rectify the problem have been exhausted.
In conclusion, the author's argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument, it would be necessary to show that the only factor influencing the price increases is the growers' desire for increased profits. (333 words)
37. Take Heart健身中心
【本月寂静】
作文是：一家健身房还是养生馆的那种娱乐中心的经理，觉得去年夏天开了泳池会员人数涨了12%，为了涨会员和增收，觉得他们馆应该在接下来的几年不断增加其他设施，例如啥啥啥，还说他们那片只有他们一家，没有竞争者。
提供的思路：
1) 去年夏天可能是天气奇热，才人多，个例，不是人们被新项目吸引。
2) 其他设施增加要花很多钱，不一定能赚回来。
3) 新设施不一定会被不是会员的其他人喜欢他们就来办会员。
4) 现在没有竞争者不代表以后没有竞争者。
【考古】
The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center: "After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by its members. Therefore, in order to increase membership in Take Heart, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market."
参考思路
1. 因果关系：不能因为先建了游泳池然后使用率增加了就认为是游泳池导致了使用率增加，也许是有节假日或者天气适合锻炼，或者马上要夏天了大家要减肥，所以锻炼的人增加。
2. 无根据假设：认为增加游乐项目就能增加会员和利润没有根据。顾客除了要求更多新颖的休闲设施，对服务的要求和会员fee也很重要，其他游乐场所降低会员费，提供coupon，bonus，price advantage之类的同样也有竞争力。
3. Cost-Revenue分析：建立这么多新的设施必然会有很多新的投入，这样不一定可以增加收益和竞争优势。
参考范文
Because Take Heart Fitness Center experienced a 12 percent increase in member usage as a result of opening a new swimming pool last summer, the author recommends the addition of new recreational facilities in subsequent years as a means of increasing membership in Take Heart. The author's recommendation is problematic for several reasons.
First and foremost, the author assumes that an increase in member usage portends an increase in membership. This assumption may hold true in some cases. However, it is unlikely to hold true in the case at hand, because it is reasonable to expect that members would visit the fitness center to inspect and try out the new swimming pool. This would account for the increase in usage. However, since the author provides no evidence that this new rate of usage was sustained, the abrupt increase in usage provides little evidence that the addition of facilities such as the pool will attract new members.
Second, the author assumes that the addition of the swimming pool was responsible for the increase in member usage. However, the only evidence for this claim is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. While temporal precedence is one of the conditions required to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a sufficient condition. Consequently, it is possible that the addition of the pool was unrelated to the increase in usage in the manner required by the author's argument.
Finally, the author has provided no evidence to support the contention that Take Heart will be the only center in the area to offer a wide range of activities to its members and thus have a competitive advantage in the fitness market.
In conclusion, the author's belief that adding additional recreational facilities will increase Take Heart's membership is ill-founded. To strengthen the argument, the author would have to provide evidence that member usage is reliable indicator of new membership. Additionally, it would be necessary to show that the cause of the increase in usage was the opening of the new pool.
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