百利天下2016-06-18更新GMAT作文机经
1. 豪华车
【本月寂静】
作文 luxury cars
【考古】
V1：The business manager of a local auto dealership recommended the following in a memo to the dealership’s owners: "During the month of June, when we advertised our luxury automobile models in the local newspapers and placed them in prominent positions on our lot and in our showroom, combined sales for both luxury models and our more inexpensive models reached the highest point for the year. In February, when we focused our advertisements on our inexpensive models and featured them on our lot and in our showroom, overall sales were lower. Clearly, if we want to maximize our profits, we need to put our luxury line front and center in a more prominent position, year-round. The luxury line clearly attracts potential consumers who, once they set foot on our auto lot, purchase a wide variety of automobiles that generate revenue for this dealership."
V2：一个汽车公司，在June的时候对luxury models做广告，结果luxury & inexpensive models销量都特别好。但是在Feb开始侧重于对inexpensive models广告，结果就很惨。所以结论是，要focus on luxury line，因为更能吸引potential customer从而ensure gathered revenue.
V3：一个memo：某auto dealership发现当6月份它们把luxury auto models放在showplace的中间，luxury auto sales reach the highest point of the year;又发现，在接下来的11月(不确定，反正就是同一年6月之后的某月)，把inexpensive auto models放在中间，inexpensive auto sales没有变化甚至还降低了。因此，这个memo说处于经济上的考量，要把以后把luxury auto model都放在展场中央。除此之外，为了最大化利润，还要把销售重心放在luxury auto sales上，这样能吸引高端客户来买更多东西。
提供的攻击点：
1) 6月份Luxury auto sales猛增可能是个exception, memo的sample size太小不能justify the universal effectiveness of the strategy。
2) inexpensive auto sales虽然卖出每辆的利润少，但人量大啊。要change to focus on luxury auto sales的话，虽然每辆车revenue可能多，但卖出量少，最终导致施行新方法后还损失利润了。
3) 高端客户的市场还是有限的，可能高端客户带来的利润还不如放弃inexpensive sales的利润大，所以要research清楚到底有多少高端客户，能带来多少潜在的利润，再决定营销策略。
参考思路：
1) 虽然广告刊登之后，profit也上升了，但是这个profit不能simply attributed to the advertisement，也许是它因。很有可能只属与销售的正常波动或者消费者在第一个月的需求本身就比较大。(相关因果)
2) 即便利润的上升是由广告引发的，但也许是两相比较下，inexpensive models的便宜的价格吸引了顾客 (它因)
3) 仅仅两个月的数据说明不了什么问题，有可能从整年来看，把inexpensive models放在前面或中心，销售额更高。
4) 二月和六月可能情况不同，不能对比。
5) 花费可能大于revenue
6) 在没有对当地居民收入及偏好的详细的调研前，不能草率决定要用luxury models作为主打商品
2. 店面购买(Retail Space)
【本月寂静】
The following appeared in a letter from a part-owner of a small retail clothing chain to her business partner: "Commercial real estate prices have been rising steadily in the Sandida Heights neighborhood for several years, while the prices in the adjacent neighborhood of Palm Grove have remained the same. It seems obvious, then, that a retail space in Sandida Heights must now be much more expensive than a similar space in Palm Grove, which was not the case several years ago. So, it appears that retail spaces in Sandida Heights are now overpriced relative to those in Palm Grove. Therefore, it would be in our financial interest to purchase a retail space in Palm Grove rather than in Sandida Heights."
参考思路：
1. 错误类比：SH和PG难以类比，地区之间必然存在差异，因为要考虑经济、人口、交通等问题，不能单凭地价上涨与否判断哪个地方的地价高，哪个地方更值得投资。
2. 因果关系-忽略他因：To increase financial interest不一定是因为低价买到了一块地，还要考虑产品销量、交通便利、地区客流量等因素。
3. 因果关系-错误因果：The claim that retail spaces in Sandide Heights are now overpriced does not necessarily proves that purchasing a retail space in Palm Grove can bring about financial interest. SH的门店价格高不能说明在PG投资就能赚钱。SH的地价高，就一定没有financial benifits吗?因为SH的地价在上涨，这个反倒说明在SH买地能带来利益。为了更好地评价financial interest，我们还应该了解SH地门店价格的趋势，并比较两地的商业利益。
4. 无根据假设：The real estate price in Sadida Heights have risen while then prices in Palm Grove have remained unchanged is not sufficient to reach the conclusion that a retail space in Sandida Heights is not much more expensive than a similar in Plam Grove. 事实可能是SH的原地价就比较低，而PG的地价比较高，所以虽然SH的地价一直涨，但是还是比PG的便宜。
3. 混合动力(hybrid engine)(新题)
【本月寂静】
A manager at an automobile and truck manufacturer says: In last month, gasoline prices have increased a lot. Usually customers are wary of purchasing larger automobiles due to the increasing gas prices. However, this time the prices are so high that many customers are even reluctant to buy fairly smaller cars. Recently, the research team in our company develop a new hybrid electric engine which can be more fuel-efficient. Thus, if we put most of our production into the new hybrid electric cars, we can make big money.
提供的参考思路：
1) 错误假设时间推移价格还是很高。
2) 题中对顾客的概括(不买车是因为油价高)不一定是对的，忽略了其他因素。
3) 没有考虑生产新车的成本
【考古】
疑似新题，没有考到古，有线索的同学麻烦知会，谢谢!
4. 仓库改步行街(新题)(2次)
【本月寂静】
一个midsized industrial town的city planner说想renovate economic，使得能提供更多的第三产业性质的creative jobs，他们决定把一个old warehouse改造成一个商业步行街，有art performances和餐厅还有咖啡馆。
A city planner proposed to a city mayor that due to the creative industry (fashion, software development, art, local cafe) represents the new industry and can energise the economy, for converting the traditional manufacturing industry to the new economy and create new job sector, he proposed to demolish a ten block old warehouse to build the pedestrian only street for cafe, fashions shops etc... Please evaluate the argument and the plan.
【考古】
疑似新题，没有考到古，有线索的同学麻烦知会，谢谢!
5. 学徒项目(apprentice training program)
【本月寂静】
作文：一个制造公司HR给CEO写了个memo：
训练新员工费钱，于是就说Fun Toys公司用了一个apprentice training program，让新来的员工参观senior怎么做事的，并且给senior工资奖励。这个制造公司就觉得也可以采用这个cost-saving model，也能做得很好。
【考古】
V1：A TIRE (hellerate什么的)MANUFACTURER 说因为一个TOY MAKER (the fun toys) launched a new training strategy called “apprentice training program”, senior employees will volunteer to take new employees as apprentice, so new employers can observe their working habits and activities, and follow the patterns set by senior employees, so the firm to eliminate the expensive and time consuming training program. Tire Company wants to adapt this program as well and it can imitate the success of this program.
参考思路：
1) False analogy: a strategy that worked for atoy maker does not necessarily work for a tire maker
2) Gratuitous assumption: working habits/activities of the old employees might not be effective all the time, patterns used by them in the past might not apply to current business environment.
V2：一个E公司的CEO (E是一个tire manufacturing factory)：1.training employee 的花费很多;2.Fun Toys公司有一个 appentice program， 就是要公司内的一些senior employee做志愿者，让appentice去observe这些senior employee的日常工作之类的，然后并从中学习;3.所以，E公司也应该学习Fun Toys的 cost-saving model， 从而减少cost。
我当时是这样写的：
1) 错误类比： E是tire manufacturing factory，(Fun Toys卤煮个人认为是做玩具的)，两个工厂性质不同不能类比，Fun Toys有效的model在E并不一定适用
2) 方案不可行：因为是观察senior employee， 但senior的工作和appentice并不相同，观察和学习并不能很好地起到training的作用
3) 副作用：对于tire工厂来说，在employee training上减少cost不可行，tire manufacturing factory重要的是生产环节，必要的training不可免，如果用apprentice program可能会导致生产上的问题，比如降低生产效率等等，进而使profits降低。
V3：A human resource manager replied to the boss: As the training fees are unavoidable, the Fun Toys Company has instituted a program to reduce its training fees by letting the managers take apprentice to tell them what to do at work. By showing the apprentices strategies, all the apprentices will follow the managers' method. The company has gain a huge success at reducing the cost. Therefore, our company should definitely imitate the way that Fun Toys Company executed.
V4：摘自a human resouce director in a tire manufacturing company: The cost of training the new employee plays an important role in the overall expense of a company. 象the Fun Toys Company 发起一个Apprentice Training Program. 他们给senior employee发 salary bonus
如果他们自愿参加这个项目。在这个项目中new employee can learn business patterns from the senior employee这样来降低新员工的培训成本。 so no more expensive and cost programs are needed. 所以我们公司也应该象FUN Toys Company 一样用这中项目降低新员工培训的成本。
我的思路：
1. False Analogy. 错误类比了我们公司(tire manufacturing company 和 Fun Toys Company)
2. One-sidedness. 没有考虑cost-effect analysis. 在这个项目实施过程中，给老员工发的salary bonus 可能大于省下的training cost. 并且在学习过程中，新员工可能会学到老员工的一些坏习惯，比如错误操作等
3. “no more expensive ...... are needed.” 过于绝对。在Apprentice Training Program中新员工只能学到专业技能，操作，但是对团队协作力，团队建设等没有很好的培训到。
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