百利天下2016-06-23更新GMAT作文机经
11. 软件临时工(temporary labor)(3次)
【本月寂静】
作文是软件公司也想裁员20%，效仿汽车行业领头羊。因为汽车公司这么做了之后利润上升。然后有专家认为，软件公司这么做之后，利润不一定上升。让分析。
坐稳：一个手机制造商的人说，因为有一些很贵的原材料价格不稳定，而且会持续攀升，所以他建议公司趁着现在价格锁定的时候大量购入原材料。这样的话，公司就能保证持续的高利润。(比较简单)
AWA考的题是软件公司想要学汽车公司裁员招零时工的那题~槽点还是比较好找哒，我主要就写了 ：1) 两个行业不可比;2) 可能会增加正式员工的负担，公司可能要额外给正式员工补贴，临时员工的效率不高;3) 利润是个很复杂的东西，有可能原因不在于cost of labor 而是在于本身的竞争力不高。
【考古】
一个software design company的 budget committee说auto industry因为用了temporary labor，所以cost低了。所以我们可以借鉴来降低成本。而且临时工工资是全职的一半还不用给员工福利，把现在一半的员工变成临时工这个labor shift可以让我们短期实现利润增加，长期实现more stability。
参考思路：
1) 两个行业不能比，一个可能是 labor intensive 所以临时工也能做，软件开发临时 工搞不定所以没法用
2) 错误假设。假设突然成了黑户的码农们还会好好给你写代码，有可能码农们不爽然，后效率就降低了产出就低了，sales 低了所以 profit 也没法高
3) 错误因果关系。都变临时工了还实现长期 stability 这个 budget committee 真是可 以领盒饭了，看到这个 conclusion 我考场上都快笑出来了
软件公司连续三年没盈利。因此决定公司MUST削减开支。鉴于汽车行业里，汽车公司解雇许多全职员工而招聘临时工增长了许多利润，软件公司也打算这样做。1.工资减半。 2.不用提供福利。
一个软件公司利润下降，所以要减少预算。可以模仿汽车行业的例子(follow the strategy in the auto industry)，汽车行业某时期也存在类似情况，于是汽车行业开始用临时工换full-time employee，因为临时工的工资是full-time employee的一半，所以可以大量减少预算。因此这个软件公司如果换掉25%的full-time employee就可以减少预算，增加利润，可以有一个稳定的经济状况。
参考思路
1. inefficient reasoning
2. cost-benefit analysis
3. 错误类比等等都可以写
12. 再生能源(renewable energy)(2次)
【本月寂静】
作文：某矿产公司由于近些年矿业不景气，全球需求下降，股票一直跌，计划出台战略转移，从mining转到新能源开发，并安排内部研发团队将研究重点转移至新能源开发。原因是新能源行业的几家大公司(此处例举生物能源，风能etc.)近些年盈利很好。结论：只要战略转移到新能源行业，则能保证公司盈利稳定性和股票市值。
考前就练了两篇，还给我遇到其中一篇了，是B company 希望从mining technology 转换到 renewable technology 作文JJ里有的。
【考古】
V1：An article in B corporate's newsletter to its shareholders: the decline of the traditional mining industry affected the profit of B corporate. therefore, the manager decided to transform the company's strategy from traditional mining to renewable energy, and it demanded R&D department focus on the renewable energy technology. there are two reasons. the first reason is that the renewable energy is booming. the second reason is that some companies, which have been working on the renewable energy market have gained profit. therefore, changing its strategy and entering into the renewable energy market promise B corporate's profit and safety in the future.
V2：Due to the decline demand of the mining technology, all the related corporations are suffering from decline of profit and sales this year, including Blastcom Corporation. Blastcom Corporation is considering adopting one growth strategy: to shift some of the researchers from mining technology tothe renewable energy technology, the demand for the renewable energy such as solar energy. Some of the prominent companies which market the renewable energy are successful in recent years. Therefore, it is guaranteed that company Blastcom will also be successful in the future by providing renewable energy.
V3：公司B的newsletter “Last year, the decrease in mining technology 给公司B造成了巨大负面影响，所以author就suggest the scientist staff change the research focus from Mining tech to Renewable Energy tech. 原因：Renewable Energy前景好，and there are several prominent companies in the areas of solar energy和类似的其他Renewable Energy. 结论：such divert of research focus will increase the profit and rise stock prices."
提供的攻击点：
1) False analogy between mining tech/industry and Renewable Energy tech/industry;
2) Research cannot necessarily be successful;
3) Profitability: the revenue might not be able to cover the cost invested in the research;
4) Time: the conditions cause decrease in demand in prior year might not be consistent in current year or future
13. 建豪华酒店(Luxury Hotel)
【本月寂静】
作文：说是一个市要达到目标 increase tax revenue,和吸引游客，所以要投资建一个construction of luxury hotel near convention center,这样可以吸引外来客out of town visitor来消费，并且化钱买东西。目前convention只用了50% capacity，需要吸引人来用。
【考古】
V1：题目是director在memo里说要建立一个新的豪华酒店，next to the convention center，有以下几个原因。1. 建立酒店可以提高revenue和提高center的attendence，这样tax收入也多了。2. guests会在酒店shopping和services，提高收入。3. 因为酒店很豪华，大家肯定喜欢住，目前center的入住率只有50%左右，建立酒店会提高入住率。
V2：In order to increase the number of the visitors to our conference center and tax revenue, it would be of local people's interest to build a luxury hotel beside the center. as the out-of-town visitors spend lots of money and pay lots of taxes and blabla, more contributions out-of-town visitors would make to the tax revenue and less the local people would have to pay. the hotel can accommodate many more people and it indicates that the conference center currently has only less than 50%入住率. so the hotel can attract more people who are rich and buy a lot. in the end out of town visitors 的贡献达到最大。
V3：说本地政府为了实现税收目标，tax revenue increase，打算新建一个豪华酒店。理由是：本地有个会展中心(convention center)经常有外地客人来，这帮土豪每次来都大量购买goods和service，The more shopping, the less local income什么的，原句忘了，句型结构是一个 themore ... the less。他们带来的out-of-town tax，增加了tax收入，所以本地人就可以不用交太多税了，税收指标由这些外地土豪买单了。另外这个convention center只有50%的使用率，还有很大潜力可以挖，所以需要在周边建个豪华酒店。另外一个论点是，住豪华酒店的人比住inexpensive酒店的人消费能力更强，能带活本地经济，增加收入。
V4：说B city 的finance director 提了个建议(written in Demo),说all taxpayers should help fund 在该市的convention centre边上建一个luxury hotel，这样就能吸引外部的游客经常来，就可以增加税收了。这样的好处是，首先外部人得税收增加了，本地人就不用交那么多税了，因为税收目标不变。其次，游客在这边消费会刺激当地经济。最后，convention centre 现在本来就有50%的空间没被利用起来。
参考思路
1) 无因果关系：建立 luxury hotel 不一定能达到税收上升这一目的，如果成本增加之后，消 费人数下降收入降低就无法增加税收。
2) 无根据假设：认为外地土豪会入住豪华宾馆 带动本地经济，但是文中并没有说明来此地 的外地人是什么消费层次的，是否会选择这样的 hotel 居住，也没有考虑在建立 luxury hotel 之前当地的宾馆是否供大于求。
3) 单一因果：影响税收的其他因素，除收入之外的。
14. 服装店换广告
【本月寂静】
作文很简单。有个Carlos Clothing Owner写给员工的一份memo：隔壁街区的一家music store “Disc XXX” 去年launch了一个Advertising Campaign on Radio，结果店里large increase in foot traffic。另外，那个music store的老板已经成为大富翁，然而Carlos Clothing Owner自己却还拮据度日。所以，to boost the sales and profits of Carlos, the business should switch from Newspaper advertising to Radio advertisement.
构筑的点：
1) inappropriate analogy: music store is not comparable to clothing store AT ALL, especially from advertisement perspective. music store sells acoustic products, while clothing store sells visual products. Radio does not make sense to be the advertising channel for a clothing store
2) gratuitous assumption: increase in footage is NOT equivalent to increase in profits. first, more customers do not necessarily mean more revenue. second, cost of advertising campaign is omitted
3) insufficient example: only one case is provided to support the argument, and even the case itself is not solid.
【考古原题】
The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo's Clothing to the staff: "Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign lastyear, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot's owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo's Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.”
参考思路
1. 错误类比：DD music store与C的服饰店无可比性，不能说广播广告同样适用C的服饰店。 买cd的人也许经常通过radio了解歌曲，但是买衣服的人很少通过radio来了解衣服。
2. 无根据假设：不能根据人流量大就假设销售量增加，万一只是看一看不买呢?
3. 因果关系：没有说电台广告与业务量增长有必然因果关系。Other factors other than the radio advertisement that may contribute to the business growth of Disc depot should be considered and ruled out. 比如促销，请了明星做活动等等。
4. 错误比较-时间纵向：一年前好用不代表现在好用。
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