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2013年6月8号经济学人文章赏析版

信息来源:网络  发布时间:2016-06-22

  下面的文章是13年6月8号的8篇文章,这一天的文章数量较前面明显增加了很多,在6月中下旬,小编还会为大家奉上更多的内容。

  一、目录

  [2013.06.01] Urbanisation: Some are more equal than others

  [2013.06.01] Drawing the battle lines 保守派vs.改革派:划分战线

  [2013.06.01] The strange rebirth of liberal England自由主义怪异重生

  [2013.06.01] Martian space flight: Red dreams 火星之旅

  [2013.06.01] Killer drones: Out of the shadows 无人机杀手

  [2013.06.06] Why so little Chinese in English? 英语的汉语借词太少

  [2013.06.08] Lexington: The China syndrome 中国综合症

  [2013.06.08] Too much of a good thing 领导人优势过多

  [2013.06.08] America’s non-banks: The anointed美国金融机构封神榜

  [2013.06.08] Palaeontology: A heroic find 古生物学史诗般的发现

  [2013.06.08]Democrat or sultan? 土耳其的抉择:民主还是王权?

  [2013.06.08] Luxury in the Arab world 阿拉伯奢侈品市场

  [2013.06.08]Turkey's troubles:Democrat or sultan?土耳其受难记

  [2013.06.08] Turkey erupts: The new young Turks 土耳其新一代的年轻人

  [2013.06.15]Secrets, lies and America's spies 监控网络错在哪

  [2013.06.15] Surveillance: Look who’s listening 揭开监控黑幕

  [2013.06.15] AIDS in India: The cost of living 生命的价值

  [2013.06.15] Europe’s reluctant hegemon 心不甘情不愿的欧洲盟主

  [2013.06.15] Energy: Tilting atwindmills 德国能源:无的放矢

  [2013.06.15] Online privacy: How to disappear 如何抹去线上痕迹

  [2013.06.22] Persian power: Can Iran be stopped? 难道伊朗已经无人能挡

  [2013.06.22] China's Bank: the Shibor Shock 中国央行坐视钱荒加剧

  [2013.06.22] The start of history 中日战争,历史的开篇

  [2013.06.22] Cement industry: Ready-mixed fortunes 水泥业复苏在望

  [2013.06.20] The Big Mac Index goes to North Korea 巨无霸指数走进朝鲜

  [2013.06.22] Henry Cecil 悼~传奇驯马师亨利·塞西尔

  [2013.06.22] Money and happiness: Buy buy love 买来的“爱”

  [2013.06.29] Mediobanca: A little less tangled 意大利中期银行

  [2013.06.29] Defining financial bigotry: Disparate times 金融偏执的认定

  二、文章内容

  [2013.06.08] Lexington: The China syndrome 中国综合症

  Lexington

  The China syndrome

  中国综合症

  American grumblings about their geopolitical rival are not about power, but other things

  对地缘政治上的对手,美国人抱怨的一些事与它实力无关

  Jun 8th 2013 |From the print edition

  TO THE ham-lovers of Smithfield, Virginia, it is American weakness that explains why Chinese tycoons may soon own the giant pork producer that dominates their home town. Local hams, made from peanut-fed pigs and then hickory-smoked, first earned fame in colonial times. In Smithfield images of hogs vie with American flags as a badge of pride, adorning shopfronts, school sports kit and the town water tower. Yet if a multi-billion-dollar takeover goes ahead, Smithfield Foods—the world’s largest pork processor, based in the town—will become a subsidiary of a Chinese butcher, Shuanghui International.

  对于弗吉尼亚州的史密斯菲尔德镇的爱吃火腿的人来说,正是美国在这方面的削弱才可以解释中国大亨可以这么快收购他们镇的肉业巨头。用花生饲养大的猪经山胡桃木的烟熏而制成的当地火腿,在殖民时代就初享盛名。史密斯菲尔德的火腿画像甚至与美国国旗在店面装饰上、学校体育设施上、还有镇里的水塔上抢地盘,这可以算一种荣耀了。如果数十亿美元的收购通过了,史密斯菲尔德食品公司——这个全世界最大的肉业加工制造商(就在这个镇上),将会成为中国的双汇国际的子公司。

  News of the bid broke shortly before a summit between the American and Chinese presidents in California, set for June 7th and 8th. If approved, it will mark China’s largest investment in America, and more will surely follow. That raises questions about relative economic power, and about who holds the upper hand as the two rivals embark on a new stage of interdependence. That interdependence is all the more remarkable because it co-exists with knotty economic disputes about market opening and cybertheft of trade secrets—not to mention philosophical differences about democracy and the rule of law.

  收购的消息传出后,中美领导人就于六月的7、8号在加州举行峰会。如果收购案通过,这将标志着中国在美国最大的投资,之后肯定还有更多。同样还会有一个问题,那就是在中美间开始相互依赖时,相对经济实力和谁先占据主动权的问题。这种相互依赖更加显著,是因为与之共存的,还有关于复杂的经济争端,市场开放的问题,黑客窃取商业机密,更别说关于民主和法治的不同理解。

  In Smithfield, specific questions about China’s rise and intentions could hardly be more urgent: Smithfield Foods is by far the largest employer. But on a muggy recent morning on Main Street, China’s intentions were not mentioned much.

  在史密斯菲尔德公司,关于中国的崛起和意图的一些具体问题最为迫切:史密斯菲尔德食品公司是迄今最大的劳动力雇主。但是最近在缅因街里闷热的早晨,大家谈论的话题没有提到太多关于中国的意图如何的问题。

  Instead, stunned locals talked about their American bosses. The company has vowed that jobs are safe. How can managers promise anything, townsfolk scoffed, after selling out to foreigners? The nature of those foreigners was not much discussed. The talk was instead of sadness at seeing an American firm falling to outsiders. A woman suggested it was a moment for soul-searching. In the Bible, she advised, Isaiah says that foreigners will take over the lands of those who fail to serve God. Given the Chinese takeover, Americans were “evidently” falling short.

  不知所措的当地人是在谈论着他们的老板,而不是那些外国人。这家公司曾经信誓旦旦说可以保证这里的工作。“把它卖给外国人后,这些经理们还能保证什么?”,镇里的市民嘲笑道。他们表达的是对一个美国公司谢幕的悲伤。一个女士建议,应该是时候反省一下了。圣经旧约,以赛亚书,“外人将接管那些未能侍奉神的土地。”考虑到中国就是这次的接管者,看来是美国人“明显地”落后了。

  Nobody predicted strikes or called on the government to declare ham (like French yogurt) a strategic industry. There was a mood of resignation. Some endeavoured to sound cheery. The deal seems a sound one, ventured the mayor, Carter Williams: China needs cleaner food and America needs global markets. With luck Smithfield will have to build a new factory as exports to China boom. In any case, the mayor added, there is not a thing in the world that we can do about it.

  没有人打算罢工或者到政府去宣称火腿属战略产业(就像法国的酸奶一样)。人们开始学着顺应。一些人竭尽全力去让大家往好处想。镇长卡特威廉姆斯顶风说:中国需要更安全的食品,而美国需要全球化的市场。如果一切顺利,史密斯菲尔德将再建成一个出口中国的新工厂。州长还说,总之,对此交易我们毫无办法干涉。

  If Mr Williams’s realism is admirable, some other Americans tend towards excessive gloom. A 2012 survey on global attitudes by the Pew Research Centre found Americans almost evenly divided on the question of whether China or America was now the world’s economic leader. Chinese respondents were much likelier to say (correctly) that America is still top dog. Among Barack Obama’s foreign-policy and economic aides, sources report “mystification” that so many Americans think that China is now richer. The government has, at times, attempted to push back against such pessimism. The vice-president, Joe Biden, gave a chin-jutting speech to students in Chengdu in 2011 in which he hailed America as still “the wealthiest nation in the history of the world”, with an education system and society set up to promote creativity and innovation (ie, unlike some he could mention).

  如果威廉姆斯的务实精神是值得称赞的话,那么另外一些美国人也过于悲观了。由皮尤研究中心在2012年做的关于全球态度的调查中显示,在中国还是美国是当今世界的经济主导的问题上,几乎在美国人中各占一半。而中国的受访者更喜欢说(正确的)美国仍旧占优。巴拉克·欧巴马的外交和经济政策的工作人员,对中国报告的神秘化让很多美国人都认为现在是中国更富。美国政府有时尝试去抵制这种悲观情绪。2011年,副总统乔拜登在中国成都给那里的学生们做了一场激情的演讲,在演讲中,他称美国仍然是“世界历史上最富有的国家”,有着能激发创造力和变革的教育体系和社会制度。(比如,不像他本会提到的某些国家)

  The CEO of Smithfield Foods, Larry Pope, puts forward a similarly confident argument about his own enterprise. America is world-beating when it comes to producing good pork efficiently, he argues. His new Chinese partners want to feed their people, not take over the world. Nonetheless, he worries that Americans are scared of China.

  史密斯菲尔德CEO拉里·波普,对它的公司有同样的信心,他说美国在高效生产优质肉制品上仍是世界一流的。新的中国伙伴是想给自己的人民提供优质食品,而不是接管这个世界。尽管如此,他还是担心美国人会因此害怕中国。

  He may be putting it too strongly. Americans, though far more mindful of China than Europeans are, have not had a “Japan moment”, suddenly waking up to a newly brash bully next door. They have not even had a “Sputnik moment”, when some piece of Chinese technological wizardry has shown up the United States as second-best and China as top nation. Policymakers in Washington worry more with each passing year about China’s military power. But polling shows the American public rather unfussed by it. In short, much American grumbling about China seems really to be about something different.

  他也可能把这个说得太重了。尽管美国人远比欧洲人更关注中国,但还没到“日本时刻”,突然醒来发现隔壁有一个无礼恶霸。他们甚至还没有到“卫星时刻”,有些中国的新兴技术揭示美国第二中国第一。华盛顿的决策层担心中国军力日渐增长,但是民调显示美国公众并不太在乎。总之,许多美国人对中国的抱怨看来真的和这些不相关。

  The perils of parochialism

  狭隘主义的危险

  Often “China” is an avatar for globalisation. For many on the left, it stands for the supposed greed of American bosses who consciously choose to ship jobs elsewhere, rather than stand by their workers. Mr Obama has told aides that for most Americans, “China” stands for lost jobs, especially in manufacturing. In his first term, the president repeatedly sought a China policy that might help reclaim millions of jobs by prodding companies to keep or create positions in America. No such magical China policy exists, as Mr Obama has tacitly acknowledged by pragmatically pursuing economic engagement.

  “中国”一词经常是全球化的化身。对于很多左派人士,它等同于美国商人的贪婪本性。这些人宁愿外输工作岗位,而不替原有工人的出路考虑。欧巴马已经告诉他的人,对于多数美国人,“中国”这个词就代表着失掉工作,尤其在制造业。在他的第一任期,不断地寻找一个可以帮助美国重新找回几百万工作的对华政策,以刺激美国的公司保持或者创造新的就业岗位。欧巴马实际上已经在寻求与中国的经济合作,此举表明他默认了那样神奇的对华政策是不存在的。

  Republicans on the other hand, when polled, most powerfully associate the “China” threat with America’s public debts. They accuse Mr Obama of buying the votes of the feckless poor with welfare and other gifts, running up debts that leave America at the mercy of foreign creditors.

  另一方面,共和党人,他们接受民调时,总是把“中国”威胁和美国债务紧密联系起来。他们指责欧巴马靠社会福利和其他回馈去换取穷人的选票,而这些要靠大量债务得以运行,以致美国在这方面仰人鼻息。

  In these cases, political debates about China resemble the discussions on Smithfield’s Main Street: they are mostly arguments about America and its perceived internal weaknesses. Chinese politicians play a similar game in reverse, sometimes using a hard-to-recognise caricature of “America” as an all-purpose test of China’s development and resolve. But if the two geopolitical rivals are to co-exist, as they must, they need to get beyond caricatures and self-absorption and strive to understand each other. They have grown too big, and too close, to try anything else.

  在这种情况下,人们关于对中国的一些政治讨论就像史密斯菲尔德镇里那样,他们讨论的最多的是关于美国和他们已经感知到的国家的弱点。而中国政客则玩的类似的把戏,只不过他们反过来以美国作镜子。他们时而用一幅也许面目全非的“美国”丑化图作为万用尺子,来比较中国的发展和决心。但是如果这两个地缘政治对手要共存,因为必须共存,他们要走出嘲讽和孤芳自赏,并努力去理解对方。中美间的关系已经发展的太庞大,他们的关系太紧密,所以再也难以找到其他的方法去实现共存了。

  [2013.06.08] Too much of a good thing 领导人优势过多

  Schumpeter

  Too much of a good thing

  优势过多

  Leaders need to learn to beware of their strengths

  领导者应学会当心他们的优点变成缺点

  Jun 8th 2013 |From the print edition

  IT IS only natural for leaders to try to make the most of their strengths. The theory of comparative advantage directs people, as well as countries and firms, to focus on what they are good at. Management experts have tended to concur: one of the bestselling business books of recent years is called “Now Discover Your Strengths”, by Marcus Buckingham and Donald Clifton. When business schools (and indeed business columnists) profile bosses, they often assume that more is better. But is this right? Three more recent books express some doubts. In “Fear Your Strengths”, Robert Kaplan and Robert Kaiser argue that “what you are best at could be your biggest problem.” Forcefulness can become bullying; decisiveness can turn into pigheadedness; niceness can develop into indecision.

  领导人设法放大他们的优势,这是很正常的。比较优势理论指引人们、企业乃至国家,集中精力去发挥自身的优势。管理学专家也倾向于这种观点。近几年的商业畅销书中,有一本名为《现在发现你的优势》(“Now Discover Your Strengths”),印证了目前这种普遍的现象,该书由马库斯白金汉(1)(Marcus Buckingham)和唐纳德克利夫顿(2)(Donald Clifton)合著。当商学院(准确地说,是商界专栏作者)解读管理者时,他们也认为管理者的优势越多越好。但是,事实真的是这样吗?近期有三本以上的书籍对此提出了质疑。在《当心你的优势》(“Fear Your Strengths”)一书中,作者罗伯特卡普兰(3)(Robert Kaplan)和罗伯特凯泽(Robert Kaiser)提出反对声音,“你所擅长的可能是你最大的问题。”有说服力会变成过于强势;过分果断会变成固执;注重细节会变成优柔寡断。

  Managers who rely too much on their strengths may become hammers that see every problem as a nail. Over-forceful bosses can turn their subordinates into patsies; consensus-obsessed bosses can institutionalise dithering. It is not difficult to find examples of strengths-turned-weaknesses in politics. Barack Obama’s talent for lofty rhetoric has distracted him from the nuts and bolts of policymaking. François Hollande’s passion for being Mr Normal has rendered him too small for his grand office.

  管理者过于依赖自己的优势,将有可能像锤子一样只会往钉子上锤。过于强势的管理者会让其下属变得懦弱;喜欢意见统一的管理者会拿不定主意。在政界,要找出优点变为缺点的例子并不困难。贝拉克奥巴马(Barack Obama)的天赋在于抛出一些大而空的话,使他在制定政策中忽略了细节。弗朗索瓦奥朗德(François Hollande)致力于维护“平凡先生“的形象使他在政坛上气场不够。

  As they rise in an organisation, people often become comfortable practising the skills that have got them thus far, and fail to ask how useful these are when working at a higher level. Thomas DeLong of Harvard Business School and his daughter Sara DeLong, a psychiatrist, dub this “the paradox of excellence” in a 2011 article. One result is that leaders end up micromanaging their subordinates (particularly those doing the job that they used to do) and neglecting the big picture. It often makes bosses choose to do the wrong thing well rather than the right thing poorly. One reason for the 2007-08 financial crisis was that the heads of big investment banks and brokers had often made their reputations as traders, rewarded for taking big risks rather than managing for the long term. Examples include Dick Fuld of Lehman Brothers and Jimmy Cayne of Bear Stearns.

  在组织中,人们通常通过扩大自身的优势来不断往上爬,但人们从不提出疑问——在更高的职位上,这些优势到底有多管用?哈佛商业学院教授托马斯德隆(Thomas DeLong)和他的女儿萨拉德隆(Sara DeLong),一位精神病专家,把这一现象称之为“卓越悖论”,并于2011年发表了有关论文。“卓越悖论”的结果之一是领导者止步于“微观管理”其下属(特别是当下属所从事的工作正是领导者曾经从事过的工作时),因此而忽略了大局。这便让管理者宁愿去把错误的事情做得很好,而不是把对的事情做得很糟糕。“卓越悖论”解释了2007-2008年金融危机的一个成因——大型投行的主管人员和经纪人通常以交易员著称,他们不是以长期的眼光去经营事业,而是靠冒着巨大风险来获取高利润。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)总裁查理德福尔德(Dick Fuld)和贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)的首席执行官吉米凯恩(Jimmy Cayne)就是很好的现实例子。

  Among the solutions offered by Messrs Kaplan and Kaiser is for bosses to create feedback mechanisms that tell them when they are going over the top (one “over-talker” got a friend to hold up a sheriff’s badge if he was talking too much in business meetings). They have also designed a Leadership Versatility Index that assesses whether leaders are overplaying their strengths.

  普兰先生(Robert Kaplan)和凯泽先生(Robert Kaiser)所提供的解决方案,为管理者创建了反馈机制,用于让管理者知道何时出现过分利用优势(好比“话多者”身边会有一位副手提醒他们在会议上别无休止地发表意见)。除此之外,他们还设计了领导力多面性指数(Leadership Versatility Index),用于评估领导者在运用自身优势时是否出格了。

  In “From Smart to Wise”, Prasad Kaipa and Navi Radjou argue that the strengths that today’s leaders are most likely to overuse are what Americans called “smarts”. These are the sort of skills managers pick up studying at business school or working in consultancies, such as the ability to spot patterns in a mass of data, or to use sophisticated financial instruments.

  在《从聪明到智慧》(“From Smart to Wise”)一书中,普拉萨德凯帕(Prasad Kaipa)和纳维拉德杰(Navi Radjou)指出,当今领导者大多数过度使用的优势就是美国人所说的“聪明”。聪明是一种技能,是管理者在商学院读书时或者在顾问公司工作时所学会的技能,就好比在一大堆数据中发现规律的技能一样,或者跟学会使用复杂的财务工具的技能一样。

  Messrs Kaipa and Radjou point out that some of the worst business scandals of recent years have involved some of the smartest people. Jeffrey Skilling put so much emphasis on smarts when he was boss of Enron that he ignored good character and common sense. Rajit Gupta’s obsession with showing how clever and well-connected he was led him into trading inside information. In his younger, pre-philanthropic incarnation, Bill Gates was bent on displaying his IQ, and did his company no favours by coming across as arrogant and condescending during Microsoft’s antitrust trial in 1998-2001.

  普兰先生(Robert Kaplan)和凯泽先生(Robert Kaiser)指出,在近年出现的重大商业丑闻案里,参与人员就是一些聪明绝顶的人。安然(Enron)的杰夫斯基林(Jeffrey Skilling)在他领导安然期间,非常擅于利用他的聪明,但却无视了重要的道德标准和缺乏基本常识。(前高盛集团董事)顾磊杰(4)(Rajit Gupta)沉迷于展示他精明和人脉广的一面,让他走上内幕交易的不归路。投身慈善事业之前的比尔盖茨(Bill Gates),少年时期正值血气方刚,专注于显示他非凡的智商,把微软(Microsoft)树立成傲慢自大、不可一世的形象,让他在1998年至2001年间深陷反垄断审判案中。

  In “Tipping Sacred Cows”, Jake Breeden goes further, arguing that many so-called management virtues are just as likely to be vices in disguise. Consultants encourage leaders to create a culture of organisational excellence. But today innovation often depends on rapid prototyping and “good enough” innovations, so those taking the consultants’ advice risk letting the best be the enemy of the good.

  在《打倒圣牛》(“Tipping Sacred Cows”)一书中,杰克布雷登(Jake Breeden)更深入地指出,那些众多美其名曰“管理者品质”,恰恰是缺点或伪装成优点的不足之处。顾问们鼓励领导者去追求“组织卓越”的企业文化,但当天的创新通常是依靠快速行动来实现,而且是“恰到好处”的创新,所以,那些听取顾问们建议的企业,将冒险行事,若稍有不慎,合适将被极致踢走。

  Debunking the debunkers

  揭露揭穿者的缺点

  These three books are all valuable exercises in iconoclasm. But the trouble with iconoclasm when you apply it to the analysis of leadership is that you can go on for ever. Many successful leaders are successful precisely because they push their strengths to the limit. Richard Branson has turned Virgin into a global brand by relentlessly exploiting his two biggest strengths: his ability to take on “big bad wolves”—firms that are overcharging and underserving the public—and his talent for infusing Virgin with a counter-cultural personality. The very over-the-topness of his stunts, whether it is crossing the Atlantic in a power boat or parading around in drag, is vital to his success.

  以上提到的三本书,为打破管理传统提供了全方位有价值的参考性。但问题是,当你应用它们来分析领导力时,你可能永无止境地分析下去。许多成功的领导者的成功原因,源自于他们把自身的优势发挥到极致。理查德布兰森(5)(Richard Branson)把维珍(Virgin)打造成世界品牌,全归功于他不懈地开发自身优势的努力:他有扮演“大灰狼”角色的能力——使公司在公众眼里成为反叛夸张和廉价消费的代名词。而且,他还擅于把自己多元前卫的个性灌输于维珍品牌。他所有非凡的绝艺,无论是乘坐热气球横跨大西洋,还是男扮女装在大街上游行,都是促使他走向成功不可或缺的因素。

  Leadership skills are context-dependent. Margaret Thatcher was undoubtedly a nightmare to work for. In 1981 her closest advisers were so exasperated with her that they produced a memo that criticised her for breaking “every rule of good man-management”, including bullying her weaker brethren, criticising her colleagues in front of officials and refusing to give praise or credit. It warned her that she was “likely to become another failed Tory prime minister sitting with [Edward] Heath”. But her abrasive style was exactly what Britain needed in the 1980s.

  领导力的形成是受环境的影响。毫无疑问,与玛格丽特撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)共事是噩梦般的经历。在1981年,她最亲密的顾问也无法忍受她的工作方式,在一份备忘录中指责她完全不具备一位领导者应有的优点,并指她气势凌人地对待自己可怜的同胞,在正式场合不留情面地责备同僚,而且,从不给予下属任何肯定和赞美。因此,他警告说,撒切尔将有可能成为继保守党前首相爱德华希思(Edward Heath)后又一位失败的保守党人。然而,撒切尔的强势作风正是八十年代的英国时期所需要的领导风格。

  The word that is too often missing from leadership studies is “judgment”. Everybody involved in the business is desperate to appear scientific: academics because they want to get research grants and consultants because they want to prove that they are selling something more than just instinct. But judgment is what matters most, and it is hard to measure. It takes judgment to resist getting carried away with one quality (such as decisiveness) or one measure of success (such as the share price). It takes judgment to know when to modulate your virtues and when to pull out all the stops. Unfortunately judgment is in rather shorter supply than leadership versatility indices.

  一直以来,我们对领导力做了许多研究,却惟独忽略了研究“判断力”。每一位在商海里奋斗的人士都拼命地表现出领导风格的科学系统性:学术型的领导者受科研补助金的驱使;顾问型的去向人们证明他们的理念并非仅来源于直觉。但是,判断力才是起到举足轻重的作用,而且也是不容易去衡量的。判断力让人阻止了某种能力的丢失(例如果断能力);判断力也可让人抓住成功的步伐(例如在定位股价上);判断力让你知道何时去调整优势、何时去全力以赴。但不幸的是,判断力比领导力多面性指数还要稀缺。

  From the print edition: Business

  译注:

  (1)马库斯白金汉(Marcus Buckingham),1987年毕业于剑桥大学,获社会和政治学硕士学位。他主导了对全球顶尖领导者、经理人和工作单位的研究,后来成为作家、研究员以及演说家,每年对全球超过250万名听众演说。基于这项研究,他出版了两本畅销书《首先,打破一切常规》和《现在发现你的优势》。他一直为《纽约时报》、《财富》、《商业周刊》、《快速公司》等杂志撰写深度报道,被尊为全球顶尖的员工效率以及领导和管理实践的专家,同时,他也是美国国务卿的领导力与管理顾问委员会成员。

  (2)唐纳德克利夫顿(Donald Clifton),美国心理学家,被称为“优势心理学之父和积极心理学祖父”。他是内布拉斯加-林肯大学教育心理学教授,是盖洛普公司前董事长,现任盖洛普国际研究和教育中心主任。

  (3)罗伯特卡普兰(Robert Kaplan),平衡计分卡(Balance Scorecard)的创始人之一,美国平衡计分卡协会主席。也是作业成本法(activity-based costing)的创始人之一。自1984年以来一直在哈佛商学院任教,现为哈佛商学院贝克基金会(Baker Foundation)教席教授。卡普兰具有较深的理工科背景,他是麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)的电子工程学士和硕士,以及康奈尔大学(Cornell University)运营研究博士。他的研究、教学及咨询领域为战略实施和运营管理,其关注的重点是如何通过成本管理和绩效管理系统,让公司成功实施战略和实现卓越运营。他撰写或合作撰写了14本书,在《哈佛商业评论》上发表了18篇文章,获得多个教学和论著方面的奖项。

  (4)顾磊杰(Rajit Gupta),高盛集团前董事,生于印度加尔各答,曾就读德里的印度理工学院。1994年-2003年,担任麦肯锡首席执行官。2003年,时任印度总理的瓦杰帕伊(Atal Bihari Vajpayee)授予了顾磊杰终身成就奖。2005年,联合国秘书长安南评价顾磊杰为“管理改革的特别顾问”。2011年10月22日,顾磊杰向美国联邦调查局(FBI)自首,他被控曾从事内幕交易活动。

  (5)理查德布兰森(Richard Branson),1950年出生于英国,维珍(Virgin)品牌创始人,1999年,英国伊丽莎白女王册封布兰森为爵士。他20世纪70年代从一间电话亭大小的办公室白手起家,80年代通过维珍航空一举成功,现在他的企业王国触角遍及婚纱、化妆品、航空、铁路、唱片等等。

  [2013.6.8] America’s non-banks: The anointed美国金融机构封神榜

  America’s non-banks

  美国的非银行金融机构

  The anointed

  SIFI封神榜

  The number of too-big-to-fail institutions gets bigger

  “大到不能倒”的机构越来越多了

  Jun 8th 2013 | New York |From the print edition

  ALTHOUGH the names on the list are supposed to be secret AIG and Prudential, two insurers, this week confirmed they are on it. So too did GE Capital, the conglomerate’s financial arm. These firms, and perhaps others, have joined America’s largest banks and clearinghouses in being designated “systemically important financial institutions” (SIFIs) by the new Financial Stability Oversight Council, a regulatory watchdog. What that means in practice is that because they are thought to be significant enough to blow up America’s economy, they should get special attention.

  “系统重要性金融机构(SIFI)”名单本应保密,但本周美国国际集团和英国保诚集团两大保险公司都承认榜上有名,通用电气旗下的金融公司——GE资本也坦然承认。上述机构(可能还有其他公司)和多家大银行、清算所一起被新的监管部门——金融稳定监督委员会认定为“系统重要性金融机构”。实际上说明这些机构的影响力已经大到了一定的程度,如果出问题可能会毁灭美国经济,所以需要特别关注。

  An appeals process against being labelled a SIFI will last for 30 days, but discussions have been going on for years so it is hard to believe minds will be swayed now. The immediate consequence is that the firms will be regulated by the Fed and subjected to tougher capital and operational requirements. Jack Lew, the treasury secretary, said the designations would “protect taxpayers, reduce risk in the financial system, and promote financial stability.”

  如果这些机构反对被认定为“系统重要性金融机构”,可以启动一个为期30天的申诉过程,但相关讨论已持续多年,要想推翻认定结果估计很困难。认定的直接影响就是,这些机构将接受美联储监管,有更严格的资本和运营条件要求。美国财政部长杰克•卢认为,这将“保护纳税人,降低金融体系风险,促进金融稳定。”

  Others are less enthusiastic. “This is a catastrophe,” says Peter Wallison, a fellow of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, and a former White House counsel. Putting these institutions under the thumb of the Fed will inevitably undermine their ability to innovate, he argues. And joining the group of entities perceived to be too big to fail means they will enjoy an implicit government guarantee. That will put them at a funding advantage against smaller companies, he says, and imply that their products are government-backed, a huge help for insurers in particular.

  其他人有不同的看法。美国企业研究所研究员、前白宫法律顾问彼得•沃利森认为“这是一场大灾难。” ——让这些机构受制于美联储将不可避免地破坏他们的创新能力;加入“大到不能倒”的集团意味着这些机构将获得政府的隐性担保;这些机构与规模较小的公司相比将拥有融资方面的优势,同时让他们的产品看起来像是有政府支持的,对于这些机构(特别是保险公司)来说是一个巨大的帮助。

  Firms themselves appear to have mixed feelings about the SIFI label. AIG seems to approve; MetLife, an insurer that has not been designated, thinks that the higher capital requirements it brings could undermine the viability of some products. Much depends on whether SIFIs are now perceived to have an implicit guarantee, and on whether that can be monetised. It also matters how many other firms are designated SIFIs. Lots of financial firms in America are large: there are rumblings about money-market funds, asset managers and private-equity firms. Risk can move around the financial system. The question today is which firms should be on the list. Eventually it might be which to leave off.

  不同的公司对 “系统重要性金融机构”标签有不同的感想。美国国际集团对此颇为赞赏。而落选的美国大都会人寿保险公司则认为,对此类机构的高资本金要求将会断送其某些产品的可行性。关键在于市场会不会将“系统重要性金融机构”这个标签视为隐性担保,以及这种担保能否转化为收益。有多少公司会被贴上这个标签也是个问题。在美国有许多大型金融公司,据传大型货币市场基金、资产管理公司和私营股权公司也可能会被加入到这个名单中。风险会在金融体系中转移。目前的问题是要把哪些公司加入到名单中,而最终的问题将会是应该把哪些公司从名单上去掉。

  [2013.06.08] Palaeontology: A heroic find 古生物学史诗般的发现

  Palaeontology

  古生物学

  A heroic find

  史诗般的发现

  Shedding light on the evolution of primates

  揭秘灵长类动物的进化

  Jun 8th 2013 |From the print edition

  An Eocene Achilles

  始新世时期的“阿喀琉斯”

  THE fossil record for early phases of primate evolution is notoriously patchy. As a result, little is known about it. This makes Archicebus achilles a boon to palaeontologists. Its nearly complete skeleton was unearthed in China’s Hubei province by Ni Xijun, of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, and colleagues. As they report in Nature, the critter, which lived around 55m years ago, in the Eocene epoch, seems to be the most primitive relative of tarsiers, mouse-sized primates which now inhabit the islands of South-East Asia.

  灵长类动物的早期进化的化石都极不完整。因此,很少有人明白其到底是怎样的。 “有脚跟的的古猴”的发现,对古生物学家来说是一个福音。北京中国科学院的倪喜军及他的同事在湖北省发掘了一副几近完整骨架。它生活在5500万年的始新世时期,应该是跟眼镜猴血缘关系最近的猴类,他们将其发表在《自然期刊》上。眼镜猴是一种栖息在东南亚的迷你猴。

  Like its modern-day kin, it appears to have moved mostly by leaping between twigs, which it grasped with all four limbs. Large eye sockets, indicating fine vision, and small, pointy teeth both suggest that it hunted insects. In this, too, it resembles agile (and even more wide-eyed) tarsiers, which are the only existing primates to enjoy an exclusively carnivorous diet of bugs, as well as small birds, snakes, lizards and bats.

  跟眼镜猴一样,它的移动几乎全是通过四肢抓紧细枝来完成的。大大的眼窝证明了它具有很好的视力。小而尖的牙齿证明它以昆虫为食。这一点也跟轻灵翔动的眼镜猴相似,但后者更令人大跌眼镜,因为它是单纯肉食类的唯一灵长目动物,但吃的不仅仅是虫子,还包括小鸟、蛇、蜥蜴和蝙蝠.

  However, an analysis of the fossil also revealed some features which resemble those of anthropoids like monkeys and apes, including man. One is its strikingly anthropoid heel bone, which Dr Ni alludes to in the specimen’s name. The findings imply that the split between anthropoids and tarsiiformes, previously reckoned to have happened 55m years ago, must have occurred earlier.

  然而,在对它化石分析之后发现:它的一些特征跟类人猿(猴子、猿类包括人类)很相近。最让人吃惊的便是它具有类人猿的脚后跟骨,这从倪博士给标本起的名字中可以看出。这意味着跗猴型下目跟类人猿亚目分歧的时间要比之前认为的5500万年要早。

  The animal is estimated to have weighed 20-30 grams and measured 71mm (or about 200mm including the tail). That makes the 3D reconstruction pictured above just about life-size.

  据估计,这类猴身长71毫米(算上尾巴的话,得有200毫米),重约20-30克。也就是说,上图中通过3D重建技术复原的图形差不多就是它的实际尺寸。

  [2013.06.08]Democrat or sultan? 土耳其的抉择:民主还是王权?

  Turkey's troubles

  土耳其的麻烦

  Democrat or sultan?

  民主派还是复辟党?

  Recep Tayyip Erdogan should heed Turkey's street protesters, not dismiss them

  埃尔多安应当向土耳其的街头抗议者虚心请教,而不是驱散他们

  Jun 8th 2013 |From the print edition

  BROKEN heads, tear gas, water-cannon: it must be Cairo, Tripoli or some other capital of a brutal dictatorship. Yet this is not Tahrir but Taksim Square, in Istanbul, Europe's biggest city and the business capital of democratic Turkey. The protests are a sign of rising dissatisfaction with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's most important leader since Ataturk. The rioting spread like wildfire across the country. Over 4,000 people have been hurt and over 900 were arrested; three have died.

  头破血流的抗议人群,呛人的催泪瓦斯,四射的高压水枪。看到这一幕,你可能会认为这是发生在开罗、的黎波里或者某个残暴独裁政府首都的抗议活动。不,这里不是开罗的解放广场,这里是欧洲最大城市伊斯坦布尔的塔克西姆广场。这场发生民主土耳其商业首都的抗议活动表明,人们对雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安——这位在凯末尔去世之后最具影响力的土耳其领导人——的不满正在日益增加。抗议活动像野火一样烧遍了整个国家。目前已造成4000多人受伤,900余人被捕,3人死亡。

  The spark of protest was a plan to redevelop Gezi Park, one of the last green spots in central Istanbul. Resentment has been smouldering over the government's big construction projects, ranging from a third bridge over the Bosporus to a crazy canal from the Black Sea. But only after this first protest was met by horribly heavy-handed policing did the blaze spread, via Twitter and other social media. A local dispute turned national because its elements—brutal police behaviour and mega-projects rammed through with a dismissive lack of consultation—serve as an extreme example of the authoritarian way Mr Erdogan now runs his country (see article).

  抗议活动的导火索是一项改建Gezi公园的计划,该公园位于伊斯坦布尔市中心,是市内仅剩的几处绿色景观之一。一段时间以来,土耳其政府频频启动重大建筑项目,包括打算在博斯普鲁斯海峡修筑第三座桥、以及异想天开地从黑海修筑一条运河,这早已激起民众强烈不满。直到本次抗议活动同时也是此类抗议活动第一次遭到警察的粗暴镇压后,这种不满情绪才借助于推特和其他社交媒体的传播像熊熊大火一样向四处蔓延开来。警察的残酷镇压、未充分征询民众而上马的重大工程是构成这起骚乱的要素。这起地方性示威之所以会蔓延至全国,是因为这些要素极端地表现出埃尔多安目前专制的治国方式。

  For some observers, Turkey's upheaval provides new evidence that Islam and democracy cannot coexist. But Mr Erdogan's religiosity is beside the point. The real lesson of these events is about authoritarianism: Turkey will not put up with a middle-class democrat behaving like an Ottoman sultan.

  对于某些观察家来说,土耳其的动荡为“伊斯兰和民主制度无法共存”这一论调提供了一个新的证据。但是,埃尔多安的宗教信仰并不是问题的重点,这些事件的真正教训事关独裁主义:土耳其不会容忍其中产阶层的民主派像以前的奥斯曼苏丹那样行事。

  Alighting from the democratic train

  中途下车,背弃民主

  In some ways, Mr Erdogan has done well. GDP growth has averaged over 5% a year since his Justice and Development (AK) party took office in late 2002. The government also pushed through enough reforms to earn the start of membership talks with the European Union in 2005, a prize that had eluded Turkey for 40 years. Mr Erdogan has done more than any of his predecessors to settle matters with his country's 15m repressed and restless Kurds. Turkey has come to be seen as a model for nations emerging from the Arab spring.

  从一定程度上讲,埃尔多安的表现一直可圈可点。自正义与发展党(AK)在2002年晚些时候上台执政以来,土耳其GDP的年均增长速度超过了5%,在政府推动下,改革大刀阔斧。最后,土耳其终于在2005年赢得了40年来始终都没有获得的奖赏——同欧盟开始入盟谈判。在安抚境内1500万受压迫且不安分的库尔德人问题上,埃尔多安的成就是任何一位前任都无法比拟的。在取得了这一连串的成绩后,土耳其被国际社会认定为一个崛起于阿拉伯之春的国家典范。

  This record explains why AK has won three commanding electoral victories, the most recent in June 2011. Mr Erdogan remains popular, especially among small-business owners and the conservative Anatolian peasantry who make up most of the millions of recent migrants to the cities. Against a useless opposition, AK may well win again.

  这份成绩单解释了正义与发展党之所以能在三次大选中(最近的一次是在2011年6月)傲视群雄的原因。目前,埃尔多安仍在选民中,尤其是在小业主和由保守的安纳托利亚农民组成的数百万城市新移民中,保持着自己的声誉。面对无所作为的反对派,正义与发展党很可能在下次大选中再次获胜。

  Yet there have long been worries about Mr Erdogan. He once called democracy a train from which you get off once you reach the station. He is disdainful of the cosmopolitan bourgeoisie of Istanbul and Izmir. His party's religious roots led many to fear the Islamisation of Ataturk's proudly secular state: a new law restricting alcohol sales lent credence to those worries. Some fret that, far from being a model of Islamist democracy, AK might expose the concept as an oxymoron.

  然而,埃尔多安一直都没能让选民打消对他的疑虑。他曾经把民主比喻成一列火车:一旦你到站了,就可以下车。他看不起那些生活在伊斯坦布尔和伊兹密尔的阅历丰富的中产阶层。正义与发展党的宗教根源让许多人感到忧心忡忡,担心这个被凯末尔自豪地称之为世俗国家的土耳其被伊斯兰化:一项限制酒类买卖的新法律给人们的担心提供了证据。人们担心,在离着伊斯兰民主制度典范尚有一段距离的情况下,正义与发展党会暴露出他们把民主制度当做幌子来利用的真实想法。

  Yet there are many in Mr Erdogan's party who, like its co-founder, Turkey's president, Abdullah Gul, disapprove of the prime minister's authoritarianism and find his interpretation of democracy too narrow; and there are many non-Muslim leaders, such as Russia's Vladimir Putin and Hungary's Viktor Orban (see article), who behave high-handedly. The problem is not Islam but Mr Erdogan. He has a majoritarian notion of politics: if he wins an election, he believes he is entitled to do what he likes until the next one. Sometimes, as in defanging the coup-prone army, he has used power well. But over time the checks on him have fallen away. AK nominees fill the judiciary and AK people run the provinces; their friends win the big contracts. Mr Erdogan has intimidated the media into self-censorship: as the protesters choked on tear gas, the television networks carried programmes about cooking and penguins.

  不过,对于埃尔多安总理的独裁主义,在正义与发展党中还是有许多人持反对态度的,如该党的联合创始人之一,土耳其现任总统阿卜杜拉·居尔就是其中一员。在他们看来,埃尔多安对于民主的理解过于狭隘;事实上,世界上有许多不信仰伊斯兰教的领导人,如俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京和匈牙利总理维克多·奥尔班,他们也是在采用高压手段对付国内矛盾。因此,人们所反对的并不是伊斯兰教,埃尔多安本人才是此次事件的焦点。在他的字典中,所谓政治就是多数人统治少数人:如果他在大选中获胜,那这就意味着,他获得了民众的授权,在下一次选举之前这段时间内,他可以为所欲为。他对于权力的这种理解时常能令他做出一些令人叫好的举动,如他在驯服有政变倾向的军队时所作所为。但是,随着时间的推移,对于他的监督开始渐渐失效。司法系统中充斥着由正义与发展党提名的人选,地方政府被该党人员所把持,他们的朋友赢得大合同。这期间,埃尔多安始终都在胁迫媒体,要求他们进行自我审查:当抗议者在催泪瓦斯中艰难地喘息时,电视台却在播放着有关厨艺和企鹅的节目。

  More journalists are in jail in Turkey than in China. Mr Erdogan has locked up whole staff-colleges of generals. Within his own party, people are afraid to stand up to him. His self-belief long ago swelled into rank intolerance. His social conservatism has warped into social engineering.

  同中国相比,土耳其的监狱中关押着更多的记者。直到现在,还有一大批高级军官被埃尔多安关在监狱中。在正义和发展党内,人们不敢起来反对他。他的那种自信早已膨胀为“唯我独尊”,他在社会政策方面的保守主义也已经转变为对于选民的利用。

  The risk is that he will now hold onto power even more tightly. Under AK party rules that limit deputies to three terms in the parliament, he must stand down as prime minister at the next election in 2015. He may be tempted to change the constitution so that he can become a powerful executive president, or run his party from the presidential palace, or simply change the rules so that he can stay on.

  目前的风险在于,现在的埃尔多安会把权力攥得更紧。根据正义与发展党有关“议员任期不得超过三届”的规定,埃尔多安必须在2015年举行下届议会选举时辞去总理职务。他有可能去冒险修改宪法,这样他就能成为一位手握实权的政党领导人,或是在总统官邸遥控指挥正义与发展党,或是简单地修改一下法律让自已能够继续掌权。

  Ottomans are to be sat on, nowadays

  土耳其人终将成功

  For two reasons Mr Erdogan must abandon these ideas and prepare to pass leadership of AK, and executive power, to the more statesmanlike Mr Gul at the next election. One is that many Turks are tiring of him—just as poll-tax riots in 1990 signalled that Britons had tired of Margaret Thatcher, or the French rejected Charles de Gaulle after 1968. If Mr Erdogan stays, he may find his country increasingly ungovernable.

  埃尔多安必须放弃这些念头,同时还必须在下次选举时做好准备,准备将正义与发展党以及政府实权交给像居尔这样更具国务活动家素质的人。他之所以要这样做是基于以下两个原因:一,在土耳其国内,已经有许多人对埃尔多安感到厌倦——这就像1990年的人头税暴乱显示英国人已经厌倦了玛格丽特·撒切尔那样,这就像法国人反对1968年后的夏尔·戴高乐那样。如果埃尔多安继续执政的话,那么他会发现,土耳其会变成一个愈发难以管理的国家。

  He also needs to preserve his achievements, which are already fragile and are at risk of unravelling. The economy has slowed sharply, partly because of recession in the euro zone, Turkey's biggest market. Talks with the EU have ground to a halt and Mr Erdogan seems to have lost interest. Negotiations with the Kurds, particularly with Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, are on a knife-edge.

  二,他有必要保持住已经取得的成就。从目前来看,这些成就已经变得十分脆弱,不堪一击。由于土耳其的最大市场——欧元区一直处于衰退之中,该国的经济增长已经大幅放缓。加入欧盟的谈判陷于停顿,埃尔多安似乎已经失去了兴趣。同库尔德人的谈判,特别是同在押的库尔德工人党领袖阿卜杜拉·奥贾兰的谈判随时都有可能破裂。

  Mr Erdogan could use the promise of an orderly succession to set Turkey on the right course. The country needs a new constitution to replace the 1982 one drafted by the army; but it should be done by consensus among all parties and it should devolve rather than centralise power. Were Mr Erdogan to devote his remaining time to constitutional reform, to finding a settlement with the Kurds and to using revived EU talks to keep democracy and the economy on track, his place in Turkish history would be secure.

  埃尔多安应该做出“有序更替”的承诺,并且利用它让国家走上正确的轨道。土耳其需要一个新宪法来替代由军方制定的1982年宪法;但是,修改宪法应当在所有政党取得一致的条件下进行,而且修宪的目的应当是让权力得到分散,而不是让权力得到集中。如果埃尔多安将任期内的剩余时间用于宪法改革,用于同库尔德人达成协定,用于重启加入欧盟的谈判,从而确保民主制度和经济发展走在正确的轨道上,那么他在土耳其历史上的地位就会得到保证。

  This week's protests have not been all tear gas and streaming eyes. Ordinary people in ordinary districts have been banging pots and pans and hanging out flags to make their voices heard. Many Turks have found a new sense of unity that in time could foster genuine, pluralistic democracy—if only the sultan would listen. Much is riding on how he treats the protesters in Taksim Square.

  在本周的抗议活动中,除了催泪瓦斯和红肿的眼睛之外,普通社区的普通民众一刻也没有停下,为了让自己的声音能够传到当权者的耳朵中去,他们一边敲打锅碗瓢盆,一边挥舞旗帜。在抗议活动中,他们找到了一种久违的团结感。在这种感受中,一种真正的多元化的民主得到及时的孕育——只要苏丹愿意去倾听,他就一定能听到人们对于他是如何对待塔克西姆广场上的抗议人群的众多声音。

  [2013.06.08] Luxury in the Arab world 阿拉伯奢侈品市场

  Luxury in the Arab world

  阿拉伯世界奢侈品市场

  Would Sir like his goat wrapped?

  请问先生的侏儒山羊需要包装起来吗?

  How the rich are different in the Middle East

  中东地区富人的不同之处

  Jun 8th 2013 | BEIRUT |From the print edition

  DUBAI’S rich will soon have yet another way to flaunt their wealth, when the Burj al-Arab hotel starts selling its guests custom-made 24-carat gold iPads. The Middle East’s big spenders still do much of their shopping on foreign jaunts, as they have done since the oil money started flowing in the 1970s, but now they also have plenty of places back home to splash their cash. And the Gulf’s malls are drawing foreign shoppers from Russia, India and Africa, too. Bain & Company reckons that luxury spending in the region grew by 10% last year, to just over $8 billion, a bit less than half the amount spent in mainland China.

  阿拉伯塔酒店将向其顾客出售定制的24k黄金iPad,到时候迪拜的富人们很快就会有另外一种炫富的方式。自20世纪70年代起,石油使大量金钱流入中东地区。从那时开始,中东挥金如土的富人们绝大部分的购物都是在国外观光游览时进行的。但是现在,他们自己的国家里也有足够多的地方供他们挥霍。这个海湾国家也在吸引着来自俄国、印度和非洲国家的购物者。美国贝恩咨询公司认为,此地区的奢侈品开支去年增长了10%,超过80亿美元,略低于中国大陆奢侈品开支额的二分之一。

  As elsewhere, wealthy Arabs like to wear famous brands. But they are especially keen on one-upmanship and novelty. According to Patrick Chalhoub, boss of Chalhoub Group, a luxury retailer, customers increasingly know just what they want, and want something different. Selina Dixon of the Abu Dhabi office of Quintessentially, a “lifestyle management” company, says: “It’s like: ‘You have a Maserati? OK, I ordered a Bentley four-by-four’.” For younger consumers, the more exotic the better, explains Ms Dixon: “People say: Can you get me a Bengali tiger for decoration [at a party]. Or, I need a pygmy goat as a present—and it has to be this height and colour.”

  富有的阿拉伯人在其他地方喜欢穿戴名牌。他们尤为热衷于高人一等以及标新立异。迪拜奢侈品零售商Chalhoub Group的老板Patrick Chalhoub说,顾客越来越知道他们想要什么,他们想要与众不同的东西。在“生活方式管理”公司Quintessentially阿布扎比分部工作的Selina Dixon说,“这就像是:‘你有玛莎拉蒂车(Maserati)吗?我定了一辆宾利(Bentley)四驱车。’”对于年轻一些的消费者,东西越奇异越好,Dixon女士解释道,“人们(在派对上)说:你能给我搞到一只孟加拉虎来装饰一下吗?或者说,我需要一个侏儒山羊作为礼物,而且它必须是这个高度,这种颜色的。”

  Muslim women usually wear a long coat or abaya (cloak) over their clothes, so external accessories like handbags and sunglasses (and perfumes) are popular. In the five years to 2012 sales of accessories grew by 74%, and watches and jewellery by 65%, in the United Arab Emirates, says Euromonitor, a research firm.

  穆斯林女性经常在其衣服外披上一件长外套或阿拉伯式长袍(披风),因此像手提包和太阳镜(以及香水)之类的外部配饰非常流行。据调查公司Euromonitor,从2007年到2012年5年的时间里,阿联酋国家配饰的销售额增长了74%,手表和珠宝的销售额增长了65%。

  The conservativeness of Arab society also drives demand for custom-made entertainment. Bain found that worldwide the rich increasingly want to spend their money on experiences rather than objects. But nowhere is that more so than in Gulf countries, where places to fraternise in the evening are limited. So wealthy Saudis will pay dearly to have a famous footballer make a guest appearance at their parties, or a chef from a renowned restaurant give a cookery demonstration. In the Arab luxury market, then, brands like Beckham can be as valuable as Cartier, Gucci or Rolls-Royce.

  阿拉伯社会的保守性也推动了对量身定做的娱乐活动的需求。贝恩咨询公司发现,全球范围内的富人越来越希望把他们的金钱花在体验上,而不是物品上。而海湾国家尤甚,因为可以在夜晚交友的地方非常有限。因此富有的沙特阿拉伯人会花大价钱把一位著名球星请到他们的派对上,或者请著名餐厅的厨师来做烹调示范。在阿拉伯奢侈品市场,像贝克汉姆之类的品牌和卡地亚、古驰或劳斯莱斯一样珍贵。

  [2013.06.08]Turkey's troubles:Democrat or sultan?土耳其受难记

  Turkey's troubles

  土耳其受难记

  Democrat or sultan?

  民主还是苏丹?

  Recep Tayyip Erdogan should heed Turkey’s street protesters, not dismiss them

  雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安应当倾听土耳其街头抗议者的心声,而不是驱散他们

  BROKEN heads, tear gas, water-cannon: it must be Cairo, Tripoli or some other capital of a brutal dictatorship. Yet this is not Tahrir but Taksim Square, in Istanbul, Europe’s biggest city and the business capital of democratic Turkey. The protests are a sign of rising dissatisfaction with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s most important leader since Ataturk. The rioting spread like wildfire across the country. Over 4,000 people have been hurt and over 900 were arrested; three have died.

  头破血流、催泪瓦斯、高压水枪,提到这些,你最先想到的一定是开罗,的黎波里亦或是其它残暴的独裁国家的首都。然而这不是在埃及,而是伊斯坦布尔的塔克西姆广场。这里是欧洲最大的城市,以及民主土耳其的商业中心。雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安是自阿塔蒂尔克之后土耳其最重要的领袖,但是众多的抗议却反映了人民对他日益增长的不满情绪。暴乱犹如野草般在这个国家蔓延。抗议中有超过4000人受伤,900人遭到逮捕,3人丧生。

  The spark of protest was a plan to redevelop Gezi Park, one of the last green spots in central Istanbul. Resentment has been smouldering over the government’s big construction projects, ranging from a third bridge over the Bosporus to a crazy canal from the Black Sea. But only after this first protest was met by horribly heavy-handed policing did the blaze spread, via Twitter and other social media. A local dispute turned national because its elements—brutal police behaviour and mega-projects rammed through with a dismissive lack of consultation—serve as an extreme example of the authoritarian way Mr Erdogan now runs his country (see article).

  这些抗议的发起是为了重建格济公园——它也是伊斯坦布尔中心最后的绿地之一。从横跨博斯普鲁斯式海峡的第三座大桥到引流自黑海的疯狂管道,对于政府这些大规模的建筑计划,人们心中怨恨的情绪一直在郁结。然而正是在首次抗议遭到警察恐怖的镇压之后,这股怒火才通过推特和其他社会媒体传播开来。一个地方性的纠纷演变到全国,是因为以下几个原因——警方行为粗暴、在通过巨大工程时,忽视了必要的协商。这也是当下埃尔多安统治中独裁主义行径的一个极端的例子。

  For some observers, Turkey’s upheaval provides new evidence that Islam and democracy cannot coexist. But Mr Erdogan’s religiosity is beside the point. The real lesson of these events is about authoritarianism: Turkey will not put up with a middle-class democrat behaving like an Ottoman sultan.

  在一些观察家看来,土耳其的动乱也再次证实了伊斯兰教与民主不能共存的事实。但是埃尔多安的宗教狂热与此毫不相干。这些事件真正地是对于独裁主义的教训:土耳其无法忍受一个中产阶级的民主主义者,却表现得像个土耳其帝国的苏丹。

  Alighting from the democratic train

  走下民主列车

  In some ways, Mr Erdogan has done well. GDP growth has averaged over 5% a year since his Justice and Development (AK) party took office in late 2002. The government also pushed through enough reforms to earn the start of membership talks with the European Union in 2005, a prize that had eluded Turkey for 40 years. Mr Erdogan has done more than any of his predecessors to settle matters with his country’s 15m repressed and restless Kurds. Turkey has come to be seen as a model for nations emerging from the Arab spring.

  在某些方面,埃尔多安做得不错。自2002年底他所在的正义与发展党(AK)执政以来,土耳其的GDP年均增长超过5%。2005年,政府同时推行了相当多的改革,成功开启了与欧盟的资格谈判,这也解决了困扰土耳其四十年的问题。在处理土耳其15万饱受压迫和骚乱的库德人的问题上,埃尔多安所做出的贡献超过所有前任总理。土耳其也被视为从“阿拉伯之春”中涌现出的模范国家。

  This record explains why AK has won three commanding electoral victories, the most recent in June 2011. Mr Erdogan remains popular, especially among small-business owners and the conservative Anatolian peasantry who make up most of the millions of recent migrants

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