预测机经主要是综合近几个月的考试题目，然后根据频率进行的写作题目分析，2016年6月17号GRE写作预测机经，快来练习吧!
issue写作预测：
ETS官方题库No. 27
In any field of inquiry, the beginner is more likely than the expert to make important contributions.
在所有的研究领域中，新手要比专家更有可能获得重要的发现。
【范文点睛】
In the contemporary society, we human have gained maybe themost thorough and complicate knowledge system than any other eras before, butunfortunately also the most enormous acquirement of more important discoverieswhich be desired by the development of almost every realms. So this is thequestion affronted us: in any field of inquiry, whether the beginner or expertwould the most efficient discoverer? To this question, people may offer theirrespective points based on their personal stands. As a beginner, my point isthat the beginner will play more important role in the endless progresssearching for knowledge.
In the first place, I have to concede that we can notefficiently make any discoveries without the help of expert. Expert is a kindof people who own such characteristics--experience accumulated from thepractice and time; knowledge gained through long terms hard-working; also thehigh psychological level based on undergoing diverse situations. And with theexperience they own we could make a short avenue to new knowledge by avoidingmaking mistakes; the knowledge they own may help us to handle the base on whichwe could infer to somewhat discoveries;and only with their mature psychologicallevel could we make rational decisions when we encounter some difficulties. Allthese are just could be brought by the expert and could lead us a better way tonew discoveries.
However, the most significant factor of discoveries issomething that is the expert hard to brought to us--innovation. But to thebeginner with such a typical factor--lack of experience especially that ofpractice, it is maybe more easier, even instinctive, to obtain innovation whichcould lead progress to make discoveries. The scarcity of experience does notrestrain the beginner's to make somewhat contributions to make discoveries, tothe contrary, it keep the beginner's mind on a condition which could producesome illusions that may be eliminated by experience such as the expert own.Such illusions, maybe useless or relateless on the surface, could maintain alot possibilities that every one may could lead a astonishing discoveries inevery realms--just consider the Brain Storm mean that have been applied toproduce a lot of new ways to solve difficult problems and some eventually leada innovation or a new discovery. So the beginner's influence to makingdiscoveries may be the decisive one.
In addition, the benefits of the expert that I just mentionedin the second paragraph maybe also a double-edged sword. This point may beparadox but it is on the correct philosophical side--consider things from bothpositive and negative aspects. Their experience could also restrain theirimaginations and creativetations; the "accomplished" knowledge theyown may be a fetter to hamper them learn and accept some new theories; latestbut not least, some of the expert have not sufficient courage to questionsomething that may lead important discoveries because they can not afford therisk of losing their position and famous, just consider what will happen if theEinstein, when his still a beginner of enormous physical academicals world,have not dare to question the Newton's classic physical system? But thebeginner could just question what they do not agree with or doubt to withoutany apprehensions about losing something-------they have nothing to lose. Socontrast to the beginner, the expert is less likely to make any discoverieseven important ones.
Although beginners also have some negative aspects such asunstable working condition but never overweight their brilliantcharacteristics. Every expert was a beginner but why they got changed duringthe progress pursue the knowledge? If every experts could keep the passion whenthey were still beginners and molt the fetters which restrain them, we couldgot more and better discoveries.
ETS官方题库No. 57
The main benefit of the study of the history is to dispel the illusion that people living now is significantly different from those people who live in earlier times.
【范文点睛】
Are we today greatly different from our forefathers onehundred years ago, fifty hundred years ago, or a thousand years ago? You willsurely not be punished if you answer to such an ambiguous question goes fromone end to the other of the full spectrum. The answer depends heavily on whatelements we are comparing or contrasting. Physically we are not much differentfrom them in that both the forefathers and people today eat, drink, talk, work,and die. But is it convincing enough to say that we are not much different fromthem? The way we talk is no longer what it was five score years ago; the foodwe eat and how we eat have undergone remarkable change; even the diseases thatkilled the forefathers today kill people in a novel and perhaps more effectiveway. In the past people survived by means of hunting, fishing, and collecting.But today people make a life by buying and selling. Are we fundamentallydifferent from people who lived before us? If I provide with an affirmativeanswer, I will be said to have illusions. Alas.
Is it an illusion to think that we are astonishinglydifferent from our ancestors? Admittedly, we are still very similar to themonkeys, physically, just as were people who lived five hundred years ago.Nevertheless, we are what we are, but not what our forefathers were. We do notrely mainly on military power to conquer or defense as did people who livedbefore us, although military power is still emphasized by many nations. In theancient Rome Julius Caesar and Alexander the Great considered the triumph to bea war in which the enemies were entirely defeated. But today, our politicalleaders would consider a campaign to be a triumph only when both partiesinvolved in the campaign are benefited. Are we today different from the peoplelived before us? Am I in illusion to think that we are different from ourforefathers?
Should any human illusion be dispelled? Frogs, dragonflies,or paying mantis perhaps never have any illusion, nor have they had everconducted any study of history, their history or the history of other animals,says, foxes, wolves, or ablators. We are human beings. We have illusions, not necessarily negative.Astrology, alchemy, mythology, witchcraft, and perhaps all forms of what wecall pseudo sciences are the source of various human illusions. Shall we dispelthe illusions by eliminating or eradicating these pseudo sciences? They playtheir roles. Just as night and darkness are against day and the light,illusions are against the truths. But without the night and darkness, neverwill there be the light and day.
Thus I claim that the benefit of the study of history is notto dispel human illusion. Nor is it to convince that we are similar to thepeople before us. The benefits of the study of history are determined by suchparameters as the person who conducts the study, what she studies, the purposewhy she studies, and how she conducts the study. To the scholars who studyhistory under the supervision of a totalitarian, the main benefits of the studycome to the governor rather than to those governed. For instance, during the1950s, Chinese scholars who studied the history of the Second World Warfocusing on why Japanese troops withdrew from the mainland of China distortedhistory to exaggerate the leader roles played by the communist party. What isthe main benefit of this study of this history? It is clearly not to dispelillusion but to create illusion. And ithad! A myriad of Chinese young people born in 1960s and 197s were subject tothe distorted “history” and they were convinced that it was the leadership ofthe communist party that dispelled the Japanese. They have little informationabout the contribution of the American nave force, air force, and the militaryforce of the former Russia.
I therefore say that the main benefit of the study of historyis not homogenous. Its spectrum is rather broad and colorful. While it is notentirely wrong to connect it with the illusion that people today are similar topeople in the past, it is a hasty conclusion based on weak ground.
argument写作预测：
ETS官方题库No. 51
The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy PancakeHouse restaurants.
"Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake Houserestaurants throughout the southwestern United States. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happywith the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
【思路点拨】
本题主要论证点集中在对“98%的顾客对于替换行为满意”以及“顾客不投诉或者是没有鉴别能力，或者是用词含混”这两条假设的其他解释上面。顾客不投诉有很多其他可能性，应推测一下顾客不去投诉的其他合理解释。
Fallacies论证中的不足：
1. False dilemma (极端选择).Some customers might be unhappy but didn’t complain.
2. Vague data (数据模糊). The author fails to point out the actual number of server who reported, and what percentage of the whole server group do they make up. Also, the author does not tell us the percentage of customers who do not complain, thus the conclusion that the change had little impact is unfounded.
3. False dilemma (极端选择).The fact that few customers complain when they are given margarine might be explained by other factors, e.g., they may prefer the lower price of margarine, or they have no time or disdain to argue with the restaurant.
ETS官方题库No. 74
The president of Grove College has recommended that the college abandon its century-old tradition of all-female education and begin admitting men. Pointing to other all-female colleges that experienced an increase in applications after adopting coeducation, the president argues that coeducation would lead to a significant increase in applications and enrollment. However, the director of the alumnae association opposes the plan. Arguing that all-female education is essential to the very identity of the college, the director cites annual surveys of incoming students in which these students say that the school's all-female status was the primary reason they selected Grove. The director also points to a survey of Grove alumnae in which a majority of respondents strongly favored keeping the college all female.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
【思路点拨】
院长的观点是应该废除女校传统，开始录取男生。因为其他女校采取男女同校政策后申请数量上升。然而校友会主任反对该计划。主任认为女校教育是学院的基本特点;并且，对于刚入学的学生所做的调查表明，学校的女校形式是他们选择Grove的主要原因;另，一次对Grove校友的调查表明大多数回应者强烈支持学院保持女校形式。
Fallacies论证中的不足：
1. 因果关系问题。其他女校申请数量上升是因为采取男女同校政策吗?
2. 错误类比。即使其他女校申请数量上升是因为采取男女同校政策，但这一定适用于Grove College吗?
3. 信息不完整。对于Grove College来说，是申请数量重要还是女校的特征重要?
4. 选择性样本问题。接受调查的新生具有代表性吗?二年级学生的看法呢?
5. 回应者是否具有代表性。接受调查的学生和校友是否都是些更倾向于支持女校的学生和校友?
6. 考虑问题不全面。男女同校政策能否吸引到其他学生?
7. 未全面衡量优缺点。男女同校的优点是什么?
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