前程百利2015-07-04最新更新GMAT作文机经
30.减少新航班
【本月原始】
【1】
一个航空公司聘请的研究员给公司的建议： 去年该公司的利润下滑。在去年年初的时候，油价大幅上涨;与此同时，我们公司新开通了5个城市的新航线。初步结论：因此利润下滑一定与以上两个原因中的一个有关。 又因为虽然所有的航空公司都不得不面临航油成本上升的问题，但其中的一些公司却改善了他们的利润。 最终结论：油价不会单独导致利润下滑，新增加航线才引起利润下跌，因此我们应该取消新开通的5条航线。
相关因果：虽然油价上涨、开通新航线后利润下跌，但这两者并不能必然成为利润下跌的理由
方案副作用：取消航线可能导致利润下跌，有可能这几条航线是赚钱的航线
没效果不代表没影响，有可能有影响，只不过被公司对冲掉了。
样本： some不能代表全体，样本可能太小或太特殊，不能证明没影响。 相似性：或对一些公司没有影响不代表对其他公司没影响
【考古】
说一个p航空公司去年profit减少了20%，fuel expenditure贵了，发现其他airlines面临同样的fuel费用上涨，然而他们很多都profit增加了，所以推断说fuel并不是the reason that profit fell,由此说那肯定就是某原因导致的(突然忘了是什么了)。狗主补充：有增加航线这个条件。
V1 某airline company(P打头)，某报告说过去一年原油价格上涨，而P公司呢他们还expand its operation(新开了一些航线)，P公司经理了profit的decline，通过我们的分析，发现原油价格上涨对行业影响是普遍的，而某些公司却报告了盈利增加，对比P公司和盈利增加的公司，唯一的区别就是P新开了航线，因此，新开航线影响了P公司的盈利，如果要提升利润，我们recommend remove掉去年新开的航线
V2 说一个航空公司的去年profit下降了，然后说因为两个原因：1.去年油价上升了。2.去年增加了一些飞机。但是呢，别个航空公司都面临油价上升，但profit增加了，所以导致该航空公司profit下降的原因一定就是飞机的数量增加了。所以为了今年要增加profit，就减少飞机数量。
V3 一个航空公司分析师给 ceo 的 email。说 Provincia last year profits decline，oil price 正好增长，所以该公司的 expenditure for fuel 增加了，同时该公司去年 add more flights 因为其他 airlines 也经历了油价上涨，但是甚至 increase profit 所以 P 公司亏损的原因一定是 more flights。为了利润，应该 eliminate flighs
V4 作文是email.一个航空公司的利润fell over 20%说的是航油价上涨和新买5架飞机导致的，since航油大家(airline)都在涨，所以两个原因中一定有一个是利润下降的原因，那就是买飞机导致利润下降
【参考思路】
1. 充分必要条件：flight expansion 是 profit 减少的唯一条件?也有可能是乘客减少。
2. 错误类比：其他公司 increase their profitability 不一定就是减少number of flight，也许是他们的服务更好，顾客更喜欢选择他们公司。
3. 无根据假设：Decrease flight expansion一定会使 profit上升?虽然减少航班数量，可以减少overall cost，但是 revenue from these flights 也是同样减少。
31.citrus价格上升
【本月原始】
【1】
作文是growers跟citrus涨价。建议看5月的JJ。都一样
【考古】
The following is taken from an editorial in a local newspaper.
“Over the past decade, the price per pound of citrus fruit has increased substantially. Eleven years ago, Megamart charged 5 cents apiece for lemons, but today it commonly charges over 30 cents apiece. In only one of these last eleven years was the weather unfavorable for growing citrus crops. Evidently, then, citrus growers have been responsible for the excessive increase in the price of citrus fruit, and strict pricing regulations are needed to prevent them from continuing to inflate prices.”
【参考思路】
1. 因果关系：种植者抬价并不是唯一影响因素，可能还有环境保护、加工价格上升、人力成本上升，或者通货膨胀等因素。Monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions the growers’ desire for increased profits.
2. 无根据假设：天气好，所以果树的产量一定高。The editorial rests on a unconvincing assumption that the bad weather in only one of these last eleven years leads to the yield’s reduction in citrus fruit.
3. 错误类比：柠檬和橘类水果类比是否正确;或者说，柠檬有其特殊性，譬如柠檬都是进口的，比较贵，因此不具有可比性。
【参考范文】
In this editorial the author argues for the imposition of strict pricing regulations in order to prevent citrus growers from continued inflation of prices of citrus fruit. The need for such regulation is supported by the author’s contention that citrus growers have been unnecessarily raising prices of citrus fruit in the past. The evidence for this allegation is the fact that the price of lemons at Megamart has increased from 15 cents per pound to over a dollar a pound during the preceding 11-year period. The author maintains that this increase is unjustifiable because weather conditions have been favorable to citrus production in all but one of those years. This argument is flawed for several reasons.
First and foremost, the author assumes that the only factor that influences the price of citrus fruit is the weather. Other factors such as monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions are completely ignored as possible sources for the increase. The charge that citrus growers have unnecessarily raised prices can be sustained only if these and other possible factors can be completely ruled out as contributing to the price increases. Since the author fails to address these factors, the recommendation calling for strict pricing regulations can be dismissed out of hand as frivolous.
Second, the author assumes that the only way to combat increased prices is through government intervention. In a free enterprise system many other means of affecting the pricing of goods are available. For example, boycotting a product and thereby influencing supply and demand conditions of the commodity is an effective means of influencing the price of the product. In a free market economy the call for price regulation by the government should occur only when all other means to rectify the problem have been exhausted.
In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument it would be necessary to show that the only factor influencing the price increases is the growers’ desire for increased profits.
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