前程百利2015-10-29更新GMAT作文机经
1.服装店和音乐店
>>> 考古原题
The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo's Clothing to the staff:
"Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot's owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo's Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot."
>>> 参考思路
1. 错误类比：DD music store与C的服饰店无可比性，不能说广告就适用C的服饰店。买cd的人也许经常通过radio了解歌曲，但是买衣服的人很少通过radio来了解衣服。
2. 无根据假设：不能根据人流量大就假设销售量增加，万一只是看一看不买呢?
3. 因果关系：没有说电台广告与业务量增长有必然因果关系。Other factors other than the radio advertisement that may contribute to the business growth of Disc depot should be considered and ruled out. 比如促销，请了明星做活动等等。
4. 错误比较-时间纵向：一年前好用不代表现在好用。
2.HR要为业绩下滑负责
>>> 考古
The following appeared in a memorandum from the CEO of a consumer electronics manufacturing firm to the head of the company's human resources department, who is responsible for hiring new employees:
“Eight years ago, our firm’s profits were increasing with each new employee we added. We discovered that each employee had the skills and motivation to generate more revenue for the firm than his or her salary cost us. However, for the past two years, our profit margin has been falling, even though we have continued to add employees. Thus, our new employees are not generating enough revenue to justify their salaries. We must not be hiring new employees with the same level of skills and motivation as those we used to attract. Clearly, then,failures in the human resources department account for our falling profits.” ---吐吐 yeah
>>> 参考思路
1. Gratuitous Assumption: A 不导致 B ---unjustified salaries 不一定导致 employee 创造的 revenue 下降,下降也可能是由于职工所在部门的部门经理的管理能力不足。Humanresources department 有失职不一定导致 unjustified salaries,工资数额不是 HR 一个部 门可以决定的。财务部门和 CEO 都有参与。
2. 充分必要条件: 其他因素也能导致 falling profits 下降,比如产品已经过时,市场发 生变化等。
3. 时地全等 all things are equal:过去经验现在不一定适用,八年前的历史数据不能用 来评价目前的状况。
3.开连锁药店
>>> 考古
V1 Holner's是一家连锁药店。它的vice president给CEO道：
我们在寻找机会建3家新店。在Alligard市，有我们的两大rival。其中Kulby Drug在该市拥有很多忠实客户。KD现在A市的市中心建立一家店;最近几年又在该市其它地方新建三家门店。我们应该在这几家门店的旁边建立我们的新店，以national brand drugs的价格优势(我们的价格优势得益于向供应商进大量的药品)来吸引KD的longtime customer。综上，我们可以成为A市的leading drugstore operation。
V2 Holner's是一家连锁药店。在Allegard这个地方，有一家叫做kirby drug的当地连锁药店很厉害，虽然已经有两家竞争药店开起来了，但是kirby drug还是有很多的长期顾客。 Holner‘s为了跟kirby drug抗衡，计划在kirby开店的3个地方附近新开3家店，并且提供lower price on national brands，以此抢走kirby的长期顾客。 然后这个Holner’s就傻傻的相信他们一定可以称霸Allegard了!
V1
Kirby药店在A市的downtown有个总店，在3个不同的地方开了3个分店，盈利不错
然后有个Nolner 的药店说我们也要开3个分店，抢掉K药店loyal的顾客;并且由于N的national brand可以从供应商大量批货，K竞争不过我们
V2
我的攻击点：
1.价格不仅仅是由供应商价格决定的，还能有别的因素决定，因此认为供应商价格低就能
价格低这个观点是错误的，可能由于店租比较高，因而使价格不具备优势。
2.Kirby 的 longtime customer 可能看中的不仅仅是价格，还可能是 Kirby 的服务，所以认为
价格低就能吸引 Kirby 的长期顾客是存在问题的。
>>> 参考思路
1. 错误类比：两家虽然都是药店，但是两家药店的影响因素并不一样。K药店是local store，而h药店是连锁的，如果将k药店的strategy用到h药店上未必会获得居民的欢迎。
2. 另有他因：lower price on national brands不是决定药店销量的唯一因素。
3. 无端假设：h药店计划在k药店的三个store附近新开三家，并且提供lower price on national brands， 但这个措施并不一定能吸引k药店的longtime customer。
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