百利天下2016-05-27更新GMAT作文机经
10. 生物技术(4次)
【本月寂静】
V1 作文呐，就是生物科技那个～m城市发展了生物科技后来关闭了，z城市可以借鉴的辣个题目。
V2讲的是有一个人给Z城的市政厅写了一个建议。发展biochemistry 的话需要好的researchers和实验室。M城的优秀大学毕业生在M创办了公司，他们一直用的government的实验室。后来government关闭了实验室。建议Z城出钱修新的实验室然后吧这些人吸引过来开公司。
提纲是：
1) 错误假设：建了实验室后他们一定就会过来
2) 因果问题：漏掉了researcher这个因素。可能Z城的人才资源没有M的充足
3) All things are equal：默认建好之后环境因素不会变化。但实际上可能到了修好的时候M城的实验室又开放了，于是血本无归
V3 awa 考的是jj里生物科技公司那一篇。
V4
作文就是那道M市生物实验室关了，所以Z市可以开，jj里写的很详细了。
【考古】
biotech industry is a rapidly growing industry and new biotech companies are good for the economies of the towns they based. However, the biotech industry needs high skilled workforce and state-of-the-art lab space with most advanced technologies. In neighbor university town Martinton, some university graduates set a successful biotech lab. But the government of Martinton closed the lab. Martinton's short sightseeing close of the lab will benefit the town of Zaneville. Thus, "somebody" said that Zaneville should give financial support to biotech labs since those labs will contribute to the economy of Zaneville.
这个是生化创业者给v地区政府的一个presentation：一直以来bio-tech 的研究都有助于innovation 并可以促进经济发展。martinton 的大学城就建立了这样的lab，不过一般来说lab需要耗费许多资金，并且需要高端人才。martinton 大学城在v的附近。最近martintin的lab关了。这些创业家认为这个是v的好机会并且指出martinton关这个实验室是鼠目寸光。他们指出如果v政府投资扶持生化实验室，可以推动当地经济。并且吸引martinton大学城的学生来工作。
参考思路
1. 错误类比：别的城市成功不代表本市会成功。
2. 样本问题(以偏概全)：一个biotech company成功不代表其他的company也会成功。
3. 证据不足：没有给出evidence为什么M市取消了这个资助到Z地来。M市取消这个资助一定也不会是无缘无故的，不搞清楚原因就盲目引进可能反而会带来不利影响。
11. 公司招人
【本月寂静】
V1 AWA： 一个公司的CEO发通告说：8年前我们每新招一个新员工，他产生的价值会弥补他的cost, 公司的profit都在上升，但是从2年前开始，虽然公司一直还在招人，但是profit持续下降。 一个manufacturing的director说是因为我们现在招的人的skill和motivation不如以前了。 所以CEO说profit下降都是HR部门的错啊，因为你们没有招到好的人。。。。
看起来很简单啊。。。卤煮就写了俩点就傻Ⅹ了。。。。
【考古】
Nec公司(貌似是营养品公司的感觉)的CEO说8年前，每招进一次新员工，新员工都会吸引到顾客给公司带来大量的利润，然后他们为公司带来的利润能超过他们的成本(工资)。但是最近两年就不是了，每招进一次新员工，他们都没有给公司带来相应的利润，他们的成本超过了他们的为公司带来的利润。所以CEO总结说：新招的员工无论是skill还是motivation都不及以前的招的员工。然后就让HR部门砍人，不再招收新人，然后显而易见，HR部门就躺枪了。问怎么解释/处理这个矛盾。
某N公司的CEO在给公司其他管理人员的memorandum里提到，过去八年，我们的招的employee都有很高的skill level，所以我们人越招多效益越好，可是近两年来，虽然我们还是继续招人，但公司的profit margin下降了。这是近两年招的人的skill level下降所导致的。
说有一个电力公司， CEO写个HR的文件，里面说 过去八年公司每一次招人都为公司带来利润， 因为每一个员工的贡献(为公司创造的效益)都大于他们的工资，但是近两年公司的利润率下降了，即使他们始终在招人，感觉这些员工给公司带来的效益没有他们拿的工资多。公司准备不再招收同样技术水平的人，而且感觉这是HR部门办事不利的原因。
参考思路：
1) 利润率下降不一定是员工造成的，可能外部环境不好。
2) 即使是新员工造成的，也不能就一定感觉是HR部门的问题。
12. 投资房产
【本月寂静】
V1 考到了投资房地产。
作者观点是在某个地区，人们应该投资房地产，因为：1)过去5年房价double(所以之后5年房价会继续上涨);2)而与此同时，average stock price in national (此处可反驳) stock market declined;3)人们买房子后生活质量(quality of life)提高。
构筑提供的反驳点：
1) 过去5年房价上涨并不意味着之后房价继续上涨;
2) 全国平均股价下跌并不意味着所有投资者都亏钱，有些人可能有股票操作的专业知识，可以挣钱;
3) 人们不一定只有房地产和股票两种投资方式，也可以选择其他更合适自己的投资方式;
4) 买房子需要贷款，反而会降低生活质量
【考古】
一个地产经纪的brochure：说房价过去五年一直在涨，股市在跌，因此投资房市是最好的选择，而且买房后自己住还同时享受了投资，投资股市却没有同样的享受。
一个地产经纪的brochure，a real estate agent mentioned the below:
"Over the last five years, the housing prices in our city have doubled. During the same time, the stock market has fallen. So now it is a good time for the city residents to buy houses as an investment. In additional, home owners can also live in the houses they bought and that can improve one's quality of life, whereas there is no such similar benefit if one buys stocks.
13. 咖啡厅反馈(3次)
【本月寂静】
V1 一个咖啡馆的一份报告说是它们的网页上新增了反馈的部分，但是六个月以来只有多少多少的complaints and suggestions，相比较庞大的客户群，所以这可以说明顾客对他们的产品和服务很满意，没有必要改进。
构筑提供参考思路：
1) survey不可信;
2) assumption无端;
3) 有complaints和suggestions，依旧要改进。
V2
作文：一个咖啡店搞了一个网上的反馈调查，他们把网址打印在每个小票的下面，所以每个顾客买完咖啡都应该能看到小票下面反馈调查的网址，结果他们在网上的系统看到在这个反馈调查中只有多少个suggestions和多少个complaints(数据忘了)，但是他们在这些天一共卖了A杯咖啡(数据忘了，反正比之前给的数据多了好几倍)，所以他们认为他们的服务和产品质量很好，没必要再进行产品升级。。(balabala大概就是说没必要再变的更好之类的话)。
V3
今天刚考。作文考了咖啡店的feedback那篇。
【考古】
【V1】A report written by an employee of the Hot Cup Cafe: "In the past six months, our cafes have begun using an online feedback page for our customers. We print the website address on the receipts of all the customers, so it is easy for them to find the address. Since the feedback page went online, we have only got 68 (数字不确定，是个两位数) complaints and 131 (数字不确定，是100+) suggestions, while our cafes have served more than 600,000 coffee drinks in the period. Therefore, we can assume that most customers are satisfiedwith our products and customer services, and thus we do not need to improve our procedures."(by eszzy)
-列出我写的两个points给大家参考：
1) respondents bias: 绝大多数人可能只有一点不满意，他们不bother上网去反应而是选择简单地不再光顾这个cafe或者让他们的朋友别去。还有就是大多数顾客都不会看receipts啊他们甚至随即就丢掉了，所以很多不满意的顾客可能压根就不知道有地方可以投诉。所以这些情况都不rule out怎么能推出大多数顾客都满意这样的结论呢?
2) 时间外推类错误：即使大多数的顾客真的都很满意，之前六个月大家都满意也不能保证今后大家也会一直满意啊。如果你不improve，要等新cafe开在你旁边，来抢走你客人再亡羊补牢为时已晚吗?
【V2】讲得是一间the Hot Cup Cafe在做一个关于complaint and suggestions 的feedback，将the website address print clearly on the receipt. 最后他们只收到了100+ complaint和50+ suggestions。在这期间他们卖了13000+(反正很多)杯咖啡，这个数字之悬殊，作者认为这代表了大大部分顾客都是很满意的，所以这家店不需要更多的survey，也不需要进行improvement。(sunnieyip)
【V3】六个月了，the hot cup cafe has a website, containing a customer feedback page,然后customers可以submit comments. The website address is clearly printed on the each receipt, so it is not difficult for customer to access the feedback page. 然后呢，那六个月the hot cup cafe卖了300,000cups of coffees，但是customer feedback page最有179个complaints和87个suggestions。然后就说almost all the customers are satisfied with our current products and customer service department, so we don't have make any improvement。(by sherryzhao)
参考思路
1. 错误假设：没有留言不代表没意见，有可能是没有看见，可能很少的人会仔细看receipt，也可能付钱的是一个人，有意见的是另一个，但是并没有看到发票上的信息，甚至有些人即使有意见也不愿意耽误时间上网反馈意见，最多就是不再去消费了。
2. 要想获得反馈单凭收据印制网站是不够的，应该采取多种方法，全方位获取顾客评价，不能只凭这一种方法就得出结论。
3. 在考虑到各种可能的影响因素之后，应该在收到回馈意见之后就采取措施弥补改正，而不是视而不见。
参考范文
In this argument, the author concludes that. They don't need to make any improvement. To support this conclusion, the author reasons that. Only 179 complaints and suggestions are responded by their customers out of 30000cups of coffee. Which means that almost all the customers are satisfied with their current products and customer service department, as the following discussion shows, this argument is critically flawed in several respects.
To begin with, the conclusion is based on the assumption that all the customers who are not satisfied with the cafe submit comments on the websites, this assumption, however, is problematic, the author fails to consider that there may be a large number of customers who were not happy with the service but didn't try to complain on the website. It is entirely possible that some customers are too busy to respond their complaints, or that they are just chose not go to the cafe anymore instead of expressing their unpleasant. In addition, the author assuming that customers are not difficult to access the feedback page on the ground that the website address is clearly printed on each receipt, this assumption is also questionable, since it is possible that many customers are not used to keep receipt or the website address is too small to draw their attentions. Unless the author can rule out these possibilities, can this assumption be accepted.
Secondly, even if customers who didn't submit their complaints and suggestion are all satisfied with the cafe’s service and products, the author's prediction that almost all the customers are satisfied with their current products and service department is still open to doubt, since 300000 cups of coffee don't mean there are 300000 customers, it is highly possible that some customers buy the coffee every day, or some customers buy more than one cup of coffee every time they go to the cafe, thus, it is highly possible that179complaints and 21 suggestion accounts for a large part of the customers who bought the coffee. Without the information about how many customers indeed bought coffee in the last 6 months, I have good reason to doubt that whether almost all the customers are satisfied with the coffee and service.
Finally, even if the customers who are unsatisfied with the cafe do accounts for a small part of all customers, itis unfairly for the author to claim that the last 6 month's service and product will remain satisfies customers in the future, it is very likely other coffee cafes near the hot cup cafe are keep developing their products and services, if hot cafe doesn't have improvement, their will lose their customers in the long run.
To sum up, this argument is logically flawed and therefore unwarranted as it stands, to strengthen the argument, the author would have to provide evidence that all the customers who not submit to the website are all satisfied with the cafe, .to better assess the argument, I would also need to know more information about other cafes and whether they are improving.
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以上就是百利天下出国考试向大家介绍的2016-05-27更新GMAT作文机经，正在准备GMAT作文的学生可以一起来看看上面的介绍，希望能给大家的GMAT备考带来帮助。
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