前程百利2015-10-30更新GMAT作文机经
16.organic food station
>>> 考古
V1. 下面的XX出现在一个下属给上级汇报的memo里：某个城市有chain gym 3个，最近对gym customer (就是在gym锻炼的人群)做了一个调查，发现customers 开始重视饮食健康 eat healthier，然后说一种提高饮食健康的办法是吃有机食品。现在city没有organic grocery store(我估计是说没有专门买organic的shop，比如像wholefood那样的)，现在city有一些retailer(大概是这个意思)想要开organic food的店。Gym觉得自己应该在它们之前下手，在每个gym里增加一个专门卖有机食品的unit，这样可以增加gym的profit。
V2. 一个gym公司最近对其顾客调查显示customers都对eating healthier感兴趣。然后说eating healthier的一个方式就是eating organic food，而且这座城市里现在还没有organic food grocery，所以这公司打算在他的每个gym location旁开一个organic food grocery 说肯定能对公司盈利有帮助，而且这个公司的profit已经好几年没怎么变动了。
V3
gym 经理说 大家的健康意识提高了 提议在每个Corner 放置organic food station 这样就可以提高盈利以及在一年内保持不变。
>>> 参考思路
1. 样本不足：只调查了在gym锻炼的人，这些人有良好的生活习惯，一般都更重视吃得健康。而且这种风尚可能只限于在gym锻炼的人之间流行。【考古说调查的是gym锻炼的人群，原狗主未提】
2. 无根据假设：拓展经营领域开Grocery Store不一定就能增加利润，开几家店的cost会很大，revenue能cover the cost么?况且这家做Health and fitness的公司几年都没涨利润，通过拓展经营领域能否赚到钱?几年未盈利可能是因为公司里的管理体制有问题，营销手段不得当等等。
3. 因果关系：人们越来越倾向吃健康食品并不意味着人们会越来越倾向于去有机食品店购买。
17.老板以前是star
>>> 考古
V1一个金融分析师的报告：说某个服装公司过去五年业绩很高，现在打算转化模式，从retail outlet到自己开retail，然后说因为这个公司的管理层大刀阔斧地改革并且由于这个公司的CEO是个former rock star，所以预测这个公司股票会涨，建议客户赶紧买进!
V2 JJ里有;讲的是某公司卖衣服，原来是through various retail stors销售，根据近五年销售情况看，打算改变市场策略，建立自己销售网络，全国100多家。再就是根据很强“管理”团队，CEO很成功，曾经是rock star,所以相信他的名声会有助于产品销售。
V3某financial analyst推荐自己的客户购买一家青年服装品牌的股票，提供了3个理由(每个都可攻击)
1. 该公司sales growth已经持续5年
2. 该公司管理层aggressively pursue expansion. 现在在outlet卖衣服，未来要扩张到125 retail stores in shopping malls all over the country.
3. 该公司CEO是former rock star.所以她的知名度name recognition and star fame一定可以吸引到消费者。
V4作文是说有一个financial analyst wrote a memo to the Investment Director. 因为一个公司叫Crow Brand manufactures t-shirts, jeans which has become a hot trend in youth apparel. Right now, this company sells most of their products through various outlets. Moreover, its management team has very aggressive plan to open 125 stores in shopping malls. The financial analyst strongly recommend his clients buy Crow Brand's stock. Its CEO, who is a previous rock star, will also make this company a fashion.
>>> 参考思路
1.时地全等：该公司sale growth已经持续了5年不能表示今年以及将来它会继续增长。
2.错误类比：outlets和shopping malls的销售模式和strategies不一样，Crow Brand 通过various outlets去销售它们的产品，而如果它们open 125 stores在shopping malls就不一定能保证它们的产品能给投资者带来更好的收益了。
3.无端假设：CEO是Former rock star不代表她的products可以吸引众多的消费者来购买。因为消费者不会关心她曾经是不是rock star。
18.Restway hotel (more details required)
>>> 本月原始
V1: Restway hotel的经理认为自己的hotel对于complimentary service 如wifi什么的， 对每个客户都收费，这很不合理，因为有的客户根本没有这个需求。并且提到一家 more luxurious hotel Ambassodor Inn采用了charge separately policy,因为它的complimentary service fee 很贵 ，这样的政策使它的客人很多(这个具体忘了 )，所以结论是follow the policy ,这样的话，就会吸引到很多的客人和提高profit margin.
V2: 一个叫...的Motel 的经理说：它们提供很多附带性的服务，这些服务的成本都要在所有顾客关上平摊。另外有一个more luxurious A Inn 分别charge这些服务，而且价格相对高一些，然后这个A does better business. 所以我们要学习A的policy to bill seperately.
我写的一个是两个hotel不相似，A 更luxurious，而且对这些服务charge的价格高一些
第二是不能说A的成功就是因为它的那个policy
19.健身中心建游泳池
>>> 考古原题
The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center.
“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.”
>>> 参考思路
1. 因果关系：不能因为先建了游泳池然后使用率增加了就认为是游泳池导致了使用率增加，也许是有节假日或者天气适合锻炼，或者马上要夏天了大家要减肥，所以锻炼的人增加。
2. 无根据假设：认为增加游乐项目就能增加会员和利润没有根据。顾客除了要求更多新颖的游乐设施，对服务的要求和会员fee也很重要，其他游乐场所降低会员费，提供coupon，bonus，price advantage之类的同样也有竞争力。
3. 建立这么多新的设施必然会有很多新的投入，这样不一定可以增加收益和竞争优势。
>>> 参考范文
Because Take Heart Fitness Center experienced a 12 percent increase in member usage as a result of opening a new swimming pool last summer, the author recommends the addition of new recreational facilities in subsequent years as a means of increasing membership in Take Heart. The author’s recommendation is problematic for several reasons.
First, and foremost, the author assumes that an increase in member usage portends an increase in membership. This assumption may hold true in some cases. However, it is unlikely to hold true in the case at hand, because it is reasonable to expect that members would visit the fitness center to inspect and try out the new swimming pool. This would account for the increase in usage. However, since the author provides no evidence that this new rate of usage was sustained, the abrupt increase in usage provides little evidence that the addition of facilities such as the pool will attract new members.
Second, the author assumes that the addition of the swimming pool was responsible for the increase in member usage. However, the only evidence for this claim is insufficient to establish the causal claim in question. While temporal precedence is one of the conditions required to establish a causal relationship between two events, by itself it is not a sufficient condition. Consequently, it is possible that the addition of the pool was unrelated to the increase in usage in the manner required by the author’s argument.
Finally, the author has provided no evidence to support the contention that Take Heart will be the only center in the area to offer a wide range of activities to its members and thus have a competitive advantage in the fitness market.
In conclusion, the author’s belief that adding additional recreational facilities will increase Take Heart’s membership is ill-founded. To strengthen the argument the author would have to provide evidence that member usage is reliable indicator of new membership. Additionally, it would be necessary to show that the cause of the increase in usage was the opening of the new pool.
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