本期的文章内容选取的是16号的文章，涉及到的文章较多，所以篇幅较长，大家可以把小编每期分享的内容汇集起来一起看。
一、目录
[2013.03.02] The workshop heroes 美国与二战：车里的英雄
[2013.03.02] Special report: Emerging Africa 崛起的非洲
[2013.03.02]Lexington: The view from Maine streets
[2013.03.02] The penny drops 一美分硬币终将退出市场
[2013.03.02] Obsessions 那些痴狂
[2013.03.02] Cuba’s leaders: The new man 古巴政坛新星
[2013.03.02] A hard pounding, this 军工行业遭受重击
[2013.03.07] Timed out 是时候和《时代》说分手了
[2013.03.09]Net benefits 网络净收益
[2013.03.09] Now for the reckoning 下面，让咱们来算算总账吧
[2013.03.09] Fixing the fat cats 修理肥猫
[2013.03.09] Flights of fancy 从幻想到空中翱翔
[2013.03.13] To a war footing 朝鲜半岛正在走向战争
[2013.03.16] Silicon Spring break 硅谷狂欢
[2013.03.16] Looking for India’s Zuckerberg 寻找印度的扎克伯格
[2013.03.16] Russia after Stalin 斯大林离去后的俄罗斯
[2013.03.16] High, wide or handsome
[2013.03.16]Credit watch 信贷观察
[2013-03-16] The economy 美国竞争力报道 - 经济
[2013.03.16] Immigration: Own goal 移民问题：美国自摆乌龙
[2013.03.23]The Alibaba phenomenon 阿里巴巴现象
[2013.03.23] Vape ’em if you got ’em 拿到手，吸两口
[2013.03.23] The joy of stats 玩转统计学
[2013.03.23] Here comes the cavalry 救兵来也
[2013.03.30]Can India become a great power? 印度能成为大国吗?
[2013.03.23] The price of detachment 退居二线的代价
[2013.03.30]Bottoms up 经济转型：基本面分析
二、文章内容
[2013.03.13] To a war footing 朝鲜半岛正在走向战争
The Koreas
朝鲜半岛
To a war footing
走向战争状态
Mar 13th 2013, 8:25 by D.T. | SEOUL
NORTH KOREAN invective has always been colourful. But the old threats to turn Seoul into a bulbada—“sea of fire”—suddenly look bland compared with the new rhetoric. Having peered out through binoculars at the South Korean border island of Baengnyeong on March 11th, the North’s supreme leader, Kim Jong Un, was quoted as telling his troops to “break the waists of the crazy enemies” and “cut their windpipes”, to show them “what real war is like”. Baengnyeong is home to almost 5,000 civilians, as well as South Korean military units, which makes the bluster more alarming. Mr Kim went so far as to point out priority targets, including radar posts and rocket sites, said KCNA, the North Korean news agency.
北朝鲜的抨击言论一贯非常生动。但与该国新近使用的辞藻相比，以往屡屡使用的要将首尔变成“一片火海”的威胁话语突然显得有些平庸了。3月11日，朝鲜最高领导人金正恩用双筒望远镜观察了韩国边界岛屿白翎岛，随后对人民军官兵发表了讲话。据报道他在讲话中命令官兵们“折断疯狂敌人的腰”和“割断他们的喉咙”，让他们瞧瞧“真正的战争是什么样子”。白翎岛上住着大约5千平民和一些韩国军队，因而他的这番咆哮让人顿生寒意。据朝鲜中央通讯社报道，金正恩甚至明确指出了要重点打击的目标，其中包括雷达站与火箭炮阵地。
These are not normal times. The North Korean leadership has reacted bitterly to the latest round of UN sanctions, imposed after its third nuclear test of February 12th. China’s support of the sanctions, which target financial transactions suspected of supporting the North’s nuclear programme, may have increased Pyongyang’s sense of isolation. This week, America singled out North Korea’s Foreign Trade Bank for sanctions, because of its suspected role in nuclear armament.
而眼下是一个非常时期。在今年2月12日朝鲜进行了第三次核试验后，联合国对其进行了新的制裁。朝鲜领导层对此作出了愤怒的反应。此次制裁针对疑似资助朝鲜核试验的金融交易，而中国支持制裁的立场也许使朝鲜感到更加孤立。本周，美国又将朝鲜外贸银行列入制裁名单，理由是该银行在朝鲜的核武开发中扮演着可疑的角色。
To add to the tensions, annual joint military exercises between America and South Korea, known as Key Resolve, started on March 11th, involving troop manoeuvres near the demilitarised zone that divides the two countries. North Korea has said it plans to hold its own drills. It has also unilaterally disavowed the 1953 armistice that halted the Korean war, and refused to answer a military hotline set up between the North and South. Reportedly, the regime has also begun camouflaging civilian vehicles and sheltering some ordinary citizens into tunnels, sending a message to its own population that it is now on a war footing.
而3月11日开始的被称为“关键决心”的韩美联合军演使局面更加紧张。这个军演每年举行一次，部分演习地靠近分割南北朝鲜的非军事区。朝鲜声称也要举行军演，而且单方废除了朝鲜战争的停战协定，拒绝接听南北军事热线电话。据报道，朝鲜已经开始对民用车辆进行伪装，让部分普通市民进入防空洞，向国内民众传递出一种朝鲜现在已经进入战争状态的信息。
This is not the first time the North has threatened war—though its recent nuclear test and rocket launch appear to have added to its swagger. In American policy circles, where the intensity of the latest North Korean tirades has raised some alarm, there still appears to be a prevailing belief that the regime is not sufficiently suicidal to enter a full-scale conflict. The danger of unplanned escalation, however, has increased. One former negotiator for the South notes that Mr Kim “does not have much experience”, but may be emboldened by the perceived “edge” he derives from his nuclear-weapons programme. Mr Kim also may feel the need to earn some credibility with his armed forces, given that lack of experience.
这已经不是朝鲜第一次发出战争威胁了。然而朝鲜最近进行的核试验与火箭发射还是增添了其底气。在美国决策层中，尽管朝鲜最近言语抨击的频率与强度引起了一些警觉，但大多数人似乎仍然认为朝鲜当局不会挑起一场全面战争，认为这无异于自杀。然而这增加了一旦局面失控而事前准备不足的危险。一位曾代表韩国与朝鲜打过交道的人士指出：金正恩经验不多，但自感从其核武项目中拥有了“优势”地位，因而胆子也许会变大起来。由于缺乏资历，金正恩也许会感到更需要赢得军队的信任。
Complicating the situation is the fact of new leadership in South Korea, which threatens to raise the stakes if there is an attack. A spokesman for the defence ministry said on March 12th that any provocation would be met with a response that ensured the North will “suffer far more”. The former president, Lee Myung-bak, faced criticism for failing to order vigorous punishment of the North in November 2010, following a deadly attack on Yeonpyeong, another border island held by the South. The new president, Park Geun-hye, will want to be careful to avoid making a similar impression of weakness.
使局面更加复杂的是，韩国新政府威胁如果韩国受到攻击将加倍还击。3月12日一位韩国国防部的发言人称，南方遭到任何挑衅都会回击，要让北方受到“加倍的损失”。2010年11月延坪岛(韩国占据的另一个边界岛屿)遭到了猛烈的炮火攻击，而前总统李明博没有下令对北方进行有力的惩罚，因而陷入指责声中。新总统朴槿惠将小心翼翼地避免给人留下类似的软弱印象。
Ms Park has her own problems, too. Bipartisan wrangling over her ministerial appointees, and her contested decision to create a new “super-ministry” that would usurp some of the responsibility for online and cable media from the Korean Communications Commission, have effectively frustrated her first weeks in office. Opponents have taken to calling hers a “vegetable government”; it is incapable of doing anything, they imply. North Korean leaders are no doubt watching this with interest.
朴槿惠自身也面临着难题。在她的内阁组成人选上两党出现了激烈的争吵;她要设立一个新的“大部”的决定也引起了争议，使她就任总统后的第一个星期就遇到了挫折。根据她的设想，这个“大部”将接管韩国放送通信委员会(Korean Communications Commission)在网络媒体和有线电视这两个领域的职责。反对派人士已经开始将她领导的政府称之为“植物人政府”，意指政府完全失能。北朝鲜的领导人们无疑会饶有兴趣地关注这件事。
Meanwhile, others in Ms Park’s conservative Saenuri party are creating waves. A member of the national assembly, Chung Mong-joon, a former presidential candidate himself, has called for South Korea to consider developing its own nuclear deterrent. He also said this week that the planned transfer of operational control of South Korean forces from America by 2015 should be abandoned.
与此同时，朴槿惠所在的保守的新国家党内部也有人正在掀起波澜。郑梦准(Chung Mong-joon)是一位韩国国会议员，也曾是一名总统候选人。他呼吁南朝鲜也要考虑发展自己的核威慑能力。他本周还说，原定在2015年将韩国军队的战时作战指挥权由美国移交给韩国的协定应该废止。
What will Mr Kim’s regime do next? The talk is of a localised provocation (in the manner of the Yeonpyeong incident), or perhaps some sort of creative, “asymmetrical” attack. He may choose to wait until the ten-day military drills are completed on March 21st. A further nuclear test or rocket launch cannot be ruled out. He appears to have raised the rhetoric, especially at home, to such a pitch that it may become very hard to sit still and do nothing.
金正恩当局下一步会怎样做?人们猜测他可能会进行一次局部挑衅(如同延坪岛事件那样)，也许会发动某种有创意的“非对称”攻击。他可能会等到这场为期十天的韩美军事演习于3月21日结束后再行动。也不排除他继续进行核试验或火箭发射的可能。他声嘶力竭地发出了高调的战争威胁(当然主要是喊给朝鲜国内人听)，但如此一来他想要罢手恐怕也很难。
[2013.03.16] Silicon Spring break 硅谷狂欢
SXSW interactive
西南偏南
Silicon Spring break
硅谷狂欢
Geeks go wild in Texas
德州技术宅的欢乐派对
Mar 16th 2013 | AUSTIN |From the print edition
Pet me and I’ll scratch you
敢摸我，我抓你呦!
THE queue to meet Grumpy Cat stretched round the block. The frowning feline (pictured) is an online sensation, with over 1.5m unique visitors a month to her website. She has a “meme agent”, of course, which she shares with Scumbag Steve, a young man who can’t put his cap on straight. Such are the delights of South By South West (SXSW), an annual festival in Austin, Texas.
来看“不爽猫”的队伍，从街头排到街尾。这只爱皱眉头的猫咪(见上图)在网络上爆红，它网站的月访问量超过了150万。和“不爽猫”一样，“痞子史蒂夫”这个帽子歪歪的年轻人也有着类似的“模因特质”。而这些，都是西南偏南(South By South West , SXSW)——德州奥斯汀年度艺术节的冰山一角。
Among the visitors was Dennis Crowley, who four years ago stole the show with his new geo-locational start-up, Foursquare, which now has over 30m members. Two years earlier Twitter made its first headlines at SXSW, a gathering that has become as important to tech start-ups as the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas is to gizmo-makers. For a few days Austin welcomes a throng of entrepreneurs and venture capitalists from Silicon Valley, Silicon Alley and, increasingly, other tech hubs around the world. Is it a triumph or a tragedy, some wondered, to go from Twitter to kitty litter in just six years?
丹尼斯-克劳利(Dennis Crowley)也来参加了这一盛会。四年前，刚刚创业的丹尼斯凭借其地理定位产品Foursquare，在西南偏南上大放异彩。如今，Foursquare的用户已超过3000万。而两年前，Twitter也是在西南偏南上首次亮相。正如科技产品制造商们对拉斯维加斯的国际消费类电子产品展览会心驰神往一样，高新科技创业者对西南偏南艺术节也是魂牵梦萦。几天之内，奥斯汀就迎来了无数创业者和风投家们——他们多来自硅谷和硅巷，而且越来越多的人来自世界各地的其他科技中心。有人担心，在仅仅六年之内，西南偏南的舞台从Twitter一枝独秀，变为百花齐放，是喜是忧?
Investors, start-ups, ad agencies and media firms battled for attention with free booze and barbecue. Path, a social network, co-hosted a bash with Ashton Kutcher, an actor. Sean Parker, a sociable billionaire tech investor, was heard complaining that bouncers had turned him away from his own party.
艺术节上，投资商、创业者、代理商和媒体公司们竞相用免费酒水和烧烤来吸引众人目光。社交媒体Path携手演员阿什顿·库彻(Ashton Kutcher)，开起了派对。热衷社交的亿万富翁，科技投资者肖恩·帕克(Sean Parker)甚至抱怨，他自己派对的门卫竟然把他拒之门外。
But no tech start-up out-hyped the cat. Did that reflect a lack of quality among the hundreds of firms that turned up hoping to score some fame and capital? Old hands grumbled that the newcomers this year included too many amateur “wantrapreneurs” and too few real ones. Lots of dumb money in the market this year, they agreed.
然而所有创业者收到的关注，都比不上那只“不爽猫”。这是否反映出，众多出现在艺术节上渴望赢得喝彩与资金的企业，其实质量不高呢?科技老人们都在抱怨，今年的新人里，“梦想家”太多，有真才实干的太少。今年市场上的投资者脑子都挺迷糊——这点他们倒是都同意。
Still, there were bright spots. Leap Motion, a start-up from San Francisco, touted an $80 motion sensor that, when plugged into a computer, allows users to manipulate items on a screen just by waving their hands. First Warning Systems of Reno, Nevada, displayed a “smart bra” that detects breast cancer.
然而，亮点也不是没有。来自旧金山的创业公司Leap Motion兜售起了一款价值80美元的运动感应器。只要把感应器插到电脑上，用户挥挥手，就能操控屏幕上的图标。来自内华达州里诺市的First Warning Systems，展出了能探测乳腺癌的“智能胸罩”。
And start-ups found new opportunities to strike deals with big firms. From Unilever to General Electric, multinationals turned up in record numbers. They sought bright ideas with open cheque books, putting smiles on the faces of several entrepreneurs, if not on that of a certain household pet.
创业者们也发现了吸引大企业的新契机。从联合利华到通用电气，出现在西南偏南的跨国公司数量创下了新高。这些公司出手阔绰，四下寻找值得投资的创意，让众多创业者喜笑颜开——要么就让那只不爽猫也爽一回。
译者注：
[1] 不爽猫(Grumpy Cat)是在美国网络上的一只猫咪红人，因其表情总是很“不爽”而得名。
[2] 模因(meme)meme这个词最初源自英国著名科学家理查德-道金斯(Richard Dawkins)所著的《自私的基因》(The Selfish Gene)一书，其含义是指“在诸如语言、观念、信仰、行为方式等的传递过程中与基因在生物进化过程中所起的作用相类似的那个东西。” 为了读上去与gene一词相似，道金斯去掉希腊字根mimeme(原意是模仿的意思)的词头mi，把它变为meme。Meme的涵义主要可以通过两个方面来理解：meme是复制因子;模仿是meme的主要传递方式。在互联网文化理论中，模因理论受到广泛应用，包括网络红人、网络歌曲等都可以作为模因理论的诠释。
[3] 痞子史蒂夫(Scumbag Steve)也是网络红人之一，他帽子带歪的照片被网友恶搞。(同一图片不同字幕的流传也是模因传递的表现形式之一)。
[4] 西南偏南(SXSW/South by Southwest)是每年在美国得克萨斯州奥斯汀举行的一系列电影、交互式多媒体和音乐的艺术节。首届西南偏南始于1987年。联合创始人路易斯·布莱克因希区柯克的电影《西北偏北》而起名叫西南偏南。
[5] Foursquare是一家基于用户地理位置信息的手机服务网站，并鼓励手机用户同他人分享自己当前所在地理位置等信息。与其他老式网站不同，Foursquare用户界面主要针对手机而设计，以方便手机用户使用。
[6] 国际消费类电子产品展览会(英语：International Consumer Electronics Show，简称国际消费电子展，CES)，该展从1967年6月于美国纽约举行至今，现已是全球最大规模的消费科技产品交易会之一，每年1月在美国内华达州拉斯维加斯举行，由消费电子协会赞助。在展览期间，会有许多产品的预览或宣布新产品。
[7] 硅巷(Silicon Alley)是位于纽约城区特别是曼哈顿城的不断增长的互联网和计算机企业群，这些企业主要是新开的公司。
[8] 猫砂kitty litter(或cat litter)是饲主为其饲养的猫用来掩埋排泄物的沙状物。这里应该是指西南偏南从原来以单一产品为焦点的舞台转变为没有焦点的，多产品竞争的地方。
[9] 阿什顿·库彻(Ashton Kutcher)在《乔布斯传》(jOBS)中扮演乔布斯。
[10] 西恩·帕克(英语：Sean Parker，1979年12月3日-)出生于美国弗吉尼亚州，是一名美国互联网创业家，曾创立Napster, Plaxo，是知名的社交网站Facebook的首任总裁。他也是 Plaxo, Causes, and Airtime.的联合创始人。 2012年3月, 他的财产估值达 21亿美元
[11] 截至目前，市面上最佳的体感控制器是微软用于电子游戏的Kinect。感知器通常都会架设在电视上或靠近电视的地方，玩家必须站在至少距离感应器六英尺的距离，Kinect才能充分捕捉到玩家的一举一动。Kinect内建的摄像机会追踪使用者的动作，并将捕捉到的资料传回给电脑。而Leap Motion呈现的是立体化、精确度极高的体感操控(误差度只有1%毫米)。Leap Motion的技术可以察觉手的动作，像挥手、捏、抹去等手势，不用触摸，3D感知器就可以追踪手指的移动，能精确到1%厘米。通过精确的认知手势，绘图工作者不再需要额外的绘图笔，玩家也不再需要遥控器才能玩游戏。
[12] 联合利华集团是全球第二大消费用品制造商， 年营业额超过美金400亿元，是全世界获利最佳的公司之一。
通用电气公司 (英语：General Electric Company, GE，NYSE：GE)，台译奇异，是美国一家提供技术和服务业务的跨国公司。据2007年统计，GE的销售收入是1727.38亿美元，是世界上拥有市场资产第二多的公司，并且在过去4年销售收入一直位于世界第一或第二
[2013.03.16] Looking for India’s Zuckerberg 寻找印度的扎克伯格
Indian technology firms
印度的科技公司
Looking for India’s Zuckerberg
寻找印度的扎克伯格
A pioneer in outsourcing but a laggard in the internet era, can India become a leader in mobile technology?
外包产业的先锋，互联网时代的落后者，印度能引领移动科技吗?
Mar 16th 2013 |From the print edition
INFORMATION technology has been a mighty force for good in India. Its first tech revolution began 30 years ago, when a few engineers came up with the unlikely idea of doing back-office IT work for far-off Western firms. Today that outsourcing industry is a capitalist marvel. It has annual sales of $100 billion, mostly from abroad, and these export earnings have been vital in a country with a weak balance of payments. Millions of good jobs in India have been created. Young Indians have seen that globalisation creates winners. India’s reputation in the world has changed, too: Bangalore’s shining IT campuses have become as famous as the Ganges and the Gandhis.
信息科技已经成为印度良好发展的一股强大动力。印度的第一次科技革命始于30年前，当时，几位工程师突发奇想，希望为遥远的西方公司做后台的IT工作。今天这样的外包产业已经成为了一个资本主义奇迹。它创造了1000亿美元的年销售额(大部分来自国外)，而这些出口收入对于收支平衡不佳的印度来讲是至关重要的。它为印度带来了上百万的好工作。年轻的印度人见证了全球化创造的赢家。印度在国际上的名誉也提升了：班加罗尔灯火通明的IT园区已经和恒河与甘地一样著名。
Yet India has been a comparative failure in terms of innovation over the past decade. You might have expected India’s many advantages (the English language, abundant engineers and a thriving diaspora in Silicon Valley) to pay off spectacularly on the internet. But only a few start-ups have made clever technical innovations that have been sold abroad. And at home e-commerce is in its infancy, with sales only 6% of China’s. Thanks to lousy infrastructure, useless regulation and a famously corrupt telecoms sector, the web is available to only 10% of Indians, many of them squinting at screens in cafés.
然而在过去的十年，印度在创新方面相对来讲是失败的。你可能会认为，印度拥有很多优势(英语环境，众多的工程师，在硅谷发展蒸蒸日上的海外印度人)，可以在互联网上获得巨大的投资回报。但是仅有一些初创公司有聪明的技术创新，并远销海外。在国内，电子商务还处于婴儿阶段，销售额仅及中国的6%。由于基础设施不健全，监管无效加之电信行业的腐败臭名昭著，仅有10%的印度人能上网，许多印度人在酒馆观看电视打发时光。
India boasts no big internet firms to compare with Chinese giants such as Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent, nor start-up stars like Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg. Instead, it has seen a succession of false dawns, from its version of the dotcom bubble in 1998-2002 to more recent hype over deal-of-the-day websites and text-based cricket updates. In 2010-11 lots of start-ups raised cash, but they have struggled since. Venture capitalists grumble that their returns have been poor. The original emerging-market tech pioneer has fallen behind in the internet era.
印度没有一个大型的互联网公司可以和中国的同行巨头如阿里巴巴，百度，腾讯相媲美，也没有一个像脸谱网站创始人马克-扎克伯格一样的创业明星。相反，假象接连不断，从1998-2002年的印度版本互联网泡沫到最近大肆宣传的限时网站和板球文本消息更新网站。2010-2011年很多初创公司筹得了现金，但从那以后它们就艰难度日。风险投资家抱怨投资回报糟糕。新兴市场最初的科技先锋在网络时代已经落后了。
Feeling luckier
感觉更幸运
Catching up should be a priority for India—not least because its outsourcing champions are now reaching middle age. As the wages of India’s engineers rise, its IT industry cannot rely for ever on doing straightforward work cheaply for foreigners. The good news is that India now has a chance to lead again; the bad news is that this opportunity relies in part on Delhi’s bureaucrats not messing it up.
奋起直追应该成为印度的重点——尤其是它一流的外包产业已到中年。由于印度工程师的工资上涨，IT产业不能永远依靠为外国公司提供廉价的简单服务。好消息是印度现在有机会再次成为引领者，而坏消息是这样的机会部分取决于新德里的官僚们不要搞砸。
Optimism springs, first, from a healthy stock of young entrepreneurs (see article). Many have gained valuable experience working in America or for multinational firms. Many are battle-hardened through previous ventures that flopped, from dairy farms to bowling alleys. As in California, failure is no longer frowned upon in India. New firms such as Flipkart and Redbus are adapting Western e-commerce models to deal with India’s rickety logistics and cash-based economy. They are transforming mundane areas such as bus tickets, and opening up scores of smaller cities to modern retailing. Tens of millions of people are benefiting as a result.
情况还是乐观的，首先，印度有着充足的年轻企业家，他们中很多已经有在美国或是跨国公司工作的宝贵经验。很多是久经沙场的企业家，之前做合资公司，从奶牛厂到保龄球馆，但是以失败告终。诚如加利福尼亚，印度亦不再受失败的困扰。新一代的公司如Flipkart 和 Redbus借鉴西方电子商务的模式应对印度不稳定的物流和基于现金的经济。它们正转变着一些传统的领域如巴士车票，将现代零售业引入大量的小城市。上千万的人因此受益。
The second change is the mobile internet. India’s fixed-line system may be abysmal, but cheap smartphones and fast wireless networks are rapidly spreading. India is poised to leapfrog the era of the personal computer and go straight to the mobile-internet age. Already a quarter of internet traffic is from phones, compared with a seventh worldwide. E-commerce sites are getting a surge in activity from phone-users.
第二个变化是移动互联网。印度的有线系统可能很糟糕，但是便宜的智能电话和快速的无线网络正在迅速发展。印度正沉着的跨越个人电脑的时代而直奔移动因特网时代。印度已经有1/4的因特网流量是来自于手机，相比之下，世界的平均水平为1/7。手机用户让电子商务网站的访问量大增。
But this budding revolution needs clever regulation. Outsourcing boomed in part because it avoided government: the product was exported through global networks. The mobile internet needs capital, payment systems and wireless capacity. In all three areas the government is in the way.
但是这种萌芽中的革命需要聪明的监管。外包产业的繁荣，部分是因为它避开了政府：产品通过全球网络出口。移动互联网需要资金，支付系统和无线容量，而在这三方面都有政府碍手碍脚。
The e-commerce industry appears stymied by the same restrictive rules on foreign investment that have bedevilled bricks-and-mortar retailing. Only a fifth of Indians have credit or debit cards—and using them online is a nightmare, again thanks to regulations (India could learn a lot from Africa’s use of mobile money). And India needs more and better wireless networks; some big players such as Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest man, have been tempted in, but the telecoms regime is a tangle of overcomplicated rules and graft.
电子商务产业看起来和外国投资一样受到了同样的限制条款的阻碍，这也困扰着实体零售业。仅有1/5的印度人有信用卡或借记卡——而在网上使用更是一场恶梦，再一次，因为监管(印度可以从非洲移动支付学习很多)。印度需要更多和更好的无线网络，一些有实力的竞争者如印度首富安巴尼已在跃跃欲试，但印度电信体制内过于复杂的条例和贪污陋象盘根错节，难以厘清。
India has the talent to lead in the mobile internet, as it did in outsourcing. But so long as Indians struggle to get a signal or to make payments, the revolution will be held back.
印度有天才引领移动因特网，就像在外包产业中的一样。但只要印度在无线网络和支付体系上的问题依然存在，这场革命就会受阻。
[2013.03.16] Russia after Stalin 斯大林离去后的俄罗斯
Russia after Stalin
斯大林离去后的俄罗斯
Do and die
苟且亦不得偷生
The pervasive pain of Russia's past
俄罗斯人过去遭受的极度痛苦
Mar 16th 2013 |From the print edition
《经济学人》杂志2013年 3月16日文章
Warped Mourning: Stories of the Undead in the Land of the Unburied. By Alexander Etkind. Stanford University Press; 328 pages; $85 and £77.50 (hardback); $25.95 (paperback) . Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk
《扭曲的哀伤：冤魂国度里幸存者们的故事》。作者：亚历山大•艾特坎德(Alexander Etkind);斯坦福大学出版社出版;全书328页;精装版售价85美元(77.5英镑);平装版售价25.95美元;亚马逊网站代理出售。
GHOSTS of the unburied dead are not only a supernatural phenomenon. As Alexander Etkind’s superb study of Russian cultural memory makes all too clear, they affect literature, art, public life and mental health too.
含冤而死的人阴魂不散，这不仅仅是一种超自然现象。亚历山大•艾特坎德对俄罗斯文化记忆的卓越研究清晰地揭示出，冤魂也影响到文学、艺术、社会生活及人们的心理健康。
Mr Etkind—shortly to leave Cambridge University for a post in Italy—won acclaim for his previous book, “Internal Colonisation: Russia’s Imperial Experience” (2011), which showed how the country’s rulers in past centuries treated their own people as badly as other empires have treated their colonies. His new book, “Warped Mourning”, looks at the memory of the Stalinist terror: different from the Holocaust, he argues, because of its suicidal and random nature. Those persecuted by Adolf Hitler typically knew the reason, however hateful and twisted, for their suffering. Most of Josef Stalin’s victims had no idea. They included the hapless victims of the authorities’ requirement for quotas of subversives, those named in random denunciations, and loyal communists; even those who until recently had been implementing the purges.
艾特坎德先生即将短期内离开剑桥大学，在意大利的一个新岗位上工作。他在2011年出版的前一本著作《内部殖民：俄罗斯帝国的体验》曾赢得了读者的赞誉。他在这本书中向读者展示了过去数百年间俄罗斯统治者们对待本国人民的残暴。他们对待本国人民的做法与其它帝国对待其殖民地如出一辙。而他的新作《扭曲的哀伤》则分析了斯大林的暴政留给俄国人的记忆。他认为发生在俄国的恐怖中出现了众多的自杀现象，而且具有随机性，这一点与发生在纳粹德国的大屠杀不同。受到希特勒迫害的人一般都知道加在自己头上的“罪名”是什么(尽管有些“罪名”极其变态，令人痛恨)。而大多数斯大林暴政下的牺牲者却死的不明不白。他们有的是在当局定下“破坏份子”的数额时不幸成了凑人头的牺牲品;有的是在胡乱告发中被人点了名;有些人是忠诚的共产党人;而有些人直至被捕前还在执行清洗任务。
The result, Mr Etkind argues, is a double mourning: for lost lives and years on the one hand, and, for many, lost ideals too. Uncertainty compounds suffering. Many loved ones simply disappeared. Their relatives did not know why they had been taken, whether they would return, who would follow them, and who might be taken next.
艾特坎德先生认为其结果导致了双重的悲哀：一方面是为无辜的生命和迷失的年代而悲哀，另一方面是为许多人丧失了理想而悲哀。那时人们是痛苦中夹杂着不安。许多亲人如同人间蒸发一样就不见了。其亲属不知道他们被逮捕的缘由，也不知道他们是否还能被放回来。谁会是下一个失踪者?又该轮上谁被抓了?
Mr Etkind ranges expertly through cultural theory, finding in film, literary criticism, linguistics, art and philosophy the effect of the Stalinist trauma on later Soviet and now Russian generations. He sees a taste for grotesque magical realism as one of the consequences: vampires and walking beefsteaks, or, to take an example from Alexander Solzhenitsyn, a giant frozen salamander discovered in the tundra, roasted and devoured by starving prisoners. Another strand is absurd pseudo-historical encounters—magical historicism—epitomised by Alexei German’s 1998 film “Khrustalyov, My Car!”, where a doctor, the victim of gang-rape in one of the gulag prisons, is summoned to attend to a dying Stalin.
艾特坎德先生从文化理论、电影故事、文学评论、语言学、艺术和哲学等方面进行了内容广泛的专业探索，分析了斯大林时期的暴政对后苏联时期至现在的俄罗斯这数代人产生了何种影响。他发现其后果之一就是这几代人喜爱荒诞的魔幻现实主义作品：如吸血鬼与行走的僵尸，或者如亚历山大•索尔仁尼琴(Alexander Solzhenitsyn)的作品中讲述的一个故事。故事描述了一群饥饿的囚犯在北极的荒原中发现了一头巨大的火蜥蜴，他们立即将这头冰冻的神兽烤熟后狼吞虎咽地吃掉。他发现这几代人还迷恋上了荒诞不经的伪历史加魔幻历史主义的作品。阿列克谢•日尔曼(Alexei German)1998年导演的电影《哈鲁斯坦洛夫，开车!》，就是这类作品的典型代表。在这部电影中，一位医生被抓进一所古拉格集中营，在狱中惨遭轮奸。但她却受命去照料影片中临终的斯大林。
Excursions into high theory (readers who know the work of Walter Benjamin, a German-Jewish critic, will feel quite at home here), are punctuated with searing personal testimonies, some from Mr Etkind’s own family. When his grandfather returned from the gulag, his own son pushed past him, not recognising the shabby old man sitting on the stairs.
瓦尔特•本雅明(Walter Benjamin)是德籍犹太人，他是一位文学批评家。凡读过他的作品的读者如果再来读艾特坎德先生的这本充满了高深理论的著作，那一定会感到非常亲切。您会不时在这本书中读到亲历者们痛苦的个人回忆。而有些回忆就来自作者的家庭成员。当他的祖父从古尔格集中营中被释放回家后，他的亲生儿子从这个坐在楼梯口的老人身旁擦身而过，但却没有认出这个衣衫褴褛的人是谁。
The author highlights some extraordinary attempts by gulag inmates to make psychological and moral sense of their fate. Yulian Oksman, for example, was a prominent historian (a risky profession in the Stalin era) who spent nine years in some of the harshest camps. After he was released he devoted himself to the detailed textual analysis of an obscure document: a letter from a 19th-century critic, Vissarion Belinsky, to the novelist, Nikolai Gogol, criticising his “sermons” in a country where serfdom was tantamount to slavery. What Russia needed, said Belinsky, was “the awakening in the people of a sense of their human dignity lost for so many centuries amid dirt and unfreedom.”
本书作者着重描述了一些古拉格集中营内被囚者们很普通的尝试，目的是要从心理与道德层面厘清他们的命运。例如，于连•奥克斯曼(Yulian Oksman)是一位杰出的历史学家(斯大林统治时期一种高风险的职业)，他在几所最严酷的集中营内被囚禁了9年。获释后他全身心地投入到一份晦涩难懂的原始文件的仔细研究中。这是一篇19世纪的文学批判文章，是维萨里昂•别林斯基(Vissarion Belinsky)写给小说家尼古拉•果戈理(Nikolai Gogol)的一封信。他在信中批判果戈理是在一个农奴等同于奴隶的国家里“布道”。别林斯基在信中说，俄国真正需要的是“唤醒民众做人的尊严。他们的这种意识在经历了这么多世纪的禁锢后已经被埋在厚厚的泥土中了。”
Mr Etkind describes it as an “astonishing letter…one of the strongest appeals for freedom that has been written in Russian.” After surmounting multiple obstacles over many years, Oksman’s monograph proving the letter’s authenticity (and sharpening its meaning) was published in the Soviet Union: a small victory, but a heroic one.
艾特坎德先生称这封信“读来令人吃惊，……这是迄今为止俄罗斯人对自由最强烈的呼唤。”历经多年，克服了许多障碍后，奥克斯曼的专著终于出版了。该书不仅对这封信提供了权威的证明，而且进一步阐明了其思想。在苏维埃时代这样一本书能够出版发行虽然只是一次小小的胜利，但却闪耀着英勇无畏的光芒。
But the lingering impression of Mr Etkind’s book is absence. Germans pick over their Nazi past remorsefully and remorselessly. Nothing like this happens in Russia. The “work” of mourning started in the Khrushchev years, and again in the late Soviet era, but then fizzled out. Little effort is made now, within what Mr Etkind calls Vladimir Putin’s “oily grip”. Memorials to the victims of Stalinism are rare and typically low-key and cryptic. It is hard to make sense of something so painful and pervasive, and all the harder when so few want to talk about it.
但艾特坎德先生的这本书尚无法给读者留下挥之不去的印象。德国人始终以反省的心情不断提及纳粹德国那段历史，而俄罗斯却全无这种现象。在赫鲁晓夫时代出现了“伤痕文学”与“反思文学”作品，在苏联后期这类作品又兴盛一时，但随后就销声匿迹了。而在普京统治下的俄罗斯，现在几乎没有人去触碰这类作品。艾特坎德将普京的统治称为“圆滑的专治”。现在很少有追忆斯大林时代受害者的作品面世。个别作品即使提到，也都非常低调和隐晦。现在要将当年某件极端痛苦的事情查个水落石出真是太难了，而在很少有人愿意谈及这件事的情况下就更是难上加难。
[2013.03.16] High, wide or handsome?
Free exchange
自由交流
通货膨胀率预期高乎?准确乎?经济形势明朗乎?
Inflation expectations remain low on average. But their dispersion is troubling
通货膨胀预期依然保持在较低的平均水平，但是预期之间的差异却令人担忧。
Mar 16th 2013 |From the print edition
INFLATION hawks watch measures of inflation expectations for signs that money-printing central banks are weakening price stability. Central bankers study inflation expectations just as closely: if there is little evidence of rising expectations, they can argue that the inflation genie will stay safely corked. But expectations matter not just because they show how high people assume inflation will go. They also provide a window on how unsure people are about the future path of price rises. And increasing uncertainty can inflict damage of its own.
通货膨胀的“鹰派”紧盯通胀预期指标，搜寻开动印钞机的央行削弱价格稳定性的迹象。央行高官对通胀的研究也非常细致：若没有证据证明通胀预期正处于上升趋势，那么他们就认定通胀这只恶魔依然被封存在瓶子里。通胀预期的重要性体现在两方面：首先，它不仅仅表明人们对通胀高低所作的预测。其次，它们还提供了一个窗口，从这里能够得知人们对未来价格升高方向是如何的不确定。而与日俱增的不确定性终会让市场自食恶果。
No one denies the harm that high inflation can do. After a bout of rapid price rises, a self-fulfilling process can take hold. Expecting further price rises, workers demand higher pay. As wages rise, so do firms’ prices. When big pay rises become the norm, it can be hard to squeeze inflation out of the system without a period of high unemployment.
高企的通胀对经济造成的危害早已成为共识。市场经历一轮价格迅速上涨之后，一种自我实现机制便开始强力运作起来。劳动者们认为价格会进一步上涨，于是他们会要求更高的薪水。薪资水平的上升带动企业产品价格的上涨。当薪水大幅上升成为常态之后，若不经历一段时间的高失业率，要想控制住通货膨胀绝非易事。
Even at lower levels, however, inflation can still be costly if there is uncertainty about its rate. If expectations turn out to be wrong, the resulting inflation shock creates winners and losers. Because wages are set annually, but the price of goods is more fluid, workers’ buying power can change after contracts have been signed. Either the employee or the firm loses out. Bonds and loans that are fixed in nominal terms become less attractive to investors than assets like commodities and buildings whose prices move with inflation. Lenders may demand a premium, increasing borrowers’ funding costs. Investment and growth suffer.
如果通胀比率不确定，即便是通胀处于较低水平，造成的代价依然不菲。如果通胀预期被证明出是错误的，由此产生的通胀冲击便会立判市场主体的输赢。由于薪资水平是一年为计时单位来制定的，商品价格却具有更强的流动性，在合同签订之后劳动者的购买力会有所变化。要么是企业，要么是员工，总有一方因为对通胀率估算不准而蒙受损失。对于投资者来说，以固定票面价格标价的债券和贷款与价格随通胀浮动的大宗商品和建筑类资产相比，前者的吸引力变的越来越弱。贷款方或许会收取溢价金额，增加借款方的融资成本。投资和经济增长便会遭受重创。
There are several ways of measuring inflation expectations. They suggest that people do not think there will be a surge in rich-world inflation. But they also reveal mounting levels of disagreement as to where inflation will end up. One method is to survey consumers about where they think prices will go. Britain is a natural place to look for ingrained expectations of high inflation: price rises have been above the Bank of England’s 2% target for 54 of the past 60 months. Yet surveys* conducted by GfK NOP, a consultancy, show that median inflation expectations rose in 2008 but fell back when inflation dropped in 2009 (see left-hand chart). American surveys tell a similar story. Based on public polls, there seems little risk of a 1970s-style wage-price ratchet.
衡量通胀预期的方式并不单一。这些方式表明人们认为发达国家不会出现通胀激升的局面。可是它们同样也说明了在通胀将来会止于何处这一问题上存在的分歧实在是霄壤之别。一个方法是就价格趋势做消费者调查。英国对高通胀的预测根深蒂固，这使得它成为开展此项调查的不二之选：过去60个月中，英国有54个月的价格涨幅高于英格兰银行2%的控制目标。可是市场调研公司GfK NOP开展的研究表明，2008年通胀预期中位数有所上升，可是当2009年通胀率降低之后又有所回落(见左表)。在美国展开的调研得出了与此类似的结果。从民调结果看来，1970年代薪资-价格水平步步激化的局面现在出现的几率似乎为零。
But surveys do point to greater uncertainty. Expectations were tightly packed in the mid-2000s. By the end of 2008 views were wildly divergent: one in five Britons thought inflation would be above 5%, another fifth expected deflation. Deflation fears have since abated, but a group expecting high inflation remains.
但是这些调研却意味着更大的不确定性。2000年代中期，对通胀的预测值密集地集中在一个区段。但是2008年末，各路观点出现了巨大的分歧：1/5的英国人认为通货膨胀率高达5%以上，而另1/5的人预测会出现通货紧缩。对通缩的担忧已经减弱，可预测会出现高通胀率的人却大有人在。
Another way to judge expectations is to study the prices of assets that provide inflation protection. Inflation-linked government bonds pay interest just like a regular (nominal) bond. But the final pay-off is adjusted up if prices rise, guaranteeing a real return. So if a nominal bond has a yield of 4% and a real one a yield of 1%, investors in the nominal bond are being paid 3% as compensation for the risk of inflation.
另一个判断通胀预期准确与否的方法是研究资产价格，这些资产提供保险以免遭由于通胀带来成资产缩水的风险。与通胀挂钩的政府债券和一般(票面价格计价)债券支付的利息相同。如果价格上升，为了确保实际的投资回报，最终支付的金额会有所调整。因此，如果票面价格计价债券的收益率为4%而实际价格计价债券的收益率是1%，中间3%的差额就会作为票面价格计价债券投资者的通胀风险补偿。
This “break-even” inflation rate—the difference between the yields on normal and inflation-protected bonds—is actually a product of three main factors. One is liquidity: since nominal bonds are easier to sell, this tends to reduce the premium that nominal bondholders demand. Two inflation-related factors offset this. First, if investors expect rapid price rises, nominal bonds will need a big extra pay-off. Second, nominal bonds must pay an “inflation-risk premium” to compensate holders for the fact that its real return is uncertain. In a 2010 paper Refet Gürkaynak of Bilkent University, Brian Sack of the Federal Reserve and Jonathan Wright of Johns Hopkins University teased out these three factors. They found that investors’ expectations of what American inflation would be echoed the consumer surveys, shooting up in 2008 then quickly dropping back. But the inflation-risk premium painted a different picture. It increased over time, suggesting that investors were less certain about the likely path for prices.
这种损益平衡的通胀率——票面价格计价债券收益率和通胀保险债券收益率之间的差异——实际上是三个因素共同作用下的产物。其一是流动性：由于交易以票面价格结算的债券变得越来越便利，这降低了此类债券持有人收取的溢价金额。其它两个与通胀有关联的因素对此起到了抵消的作用。首先，如果投资者预计价格会迅速上涨，票面价格计价债券交易就会产生大量的额外支付。其次，票面价格计价债券必须支付“通胀风险金”来补偿持有人，因为票此类债券的实际投资回报率是不确定的。在2011年发表的一篇论文中，土耳其Bilkent大学教授Refet Gürkaynak，美国联邦储蓄储蓄委员会(Federal Reserve，简称美联储)高管布莱恩•萨克(Brian Sack)和约翰•霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University)教授约翰森•莱特(Jonathan Wright)对上述三个因素做了深入的研究。他们发现投资者对美国通胀所作的预期与消费者调查两相呼应，二者均在2008年大幅升高接着又迅速回落。但是通胀风险溢价却描绘出另一番景象。通胀风险溢价随时间的上升表明投资者对价格走势可能性趋向的确定性越来越低。
Checking the options
期权风向标
New derivatives—inflation caps and floors—provide an even richer gauge of expectations. These options help insure against extreme inflation outcomes. An investor seeking to protect the return on a nominal bond buys a cap from a seller, paying an agreed price. In exchange, the seller agrees to pay out whenever inflation is above an agreed rate. This payment offsets the loss to the investor, providing insurance against inflation above the agreed rate. Inflation floors are the mirror image of this contract.
新型金融衍生工具——通胀上限和下限——提供了更为丰富的预测技术。期权有助于投资者投保以避免通胀带来极端的后果。想要保住票面价格计价债券投资回报率的投资者以协议价格从债券出售人手中购买通胀上限保险。作为回报，出售人同意无论在任何时候只要通胀率高于协定比率就会对投资者做出补偿。这一部分支付金额冲销了投资者的亏损，为投资者提供了保险以免遭通胀高于协议比率而造成的亏损。而通胀下限完全是该合同的镜像，道理相同，方向相反。
The information embedded in these contracts shows how much investors will pay to avoid a range of future inflation rates, and how much sellers will charge to insure against these outcomes. In a 2012 paper Yuriy Kitsul of the Federal Reserve and Mr Wright use these data to derive a full distribution of options-implied inflation expectations. This allows them to calculate daily probabilities of American inflation being above or below a chosen rate, and to test how these probabilities react to news. When the Federal Reserve announced a second bout of quantitative easing in November 2010, the probability of deflation slid.
涵盖在此类合同中的信息显示了投资者需要支付多少金额才能避免一定范围内未的未来通货膨胀率，以及出售者为确保投资者免受损失所要收取的金额。美联储经济学家尤里•契苏尔(Yuriy Kitsul )和莱特教授利用这些数据导出了隐含期权的通胀预期概率函数。这一函数使得他们能够计算每天美国通胀率高于或低于一个既定比率的概率，而且还能测试这些概率如何随着新闻作出相应的变化。2010年11月美联储宣布第二轮量化宽松之时，通缩概率有所降低。
Such methods also allow inflation-watchers to test whether expectations are tightly anchored or spread out. A 2012 paper by Tom Smith of the Bank of England tracks options-implied expectations for Britain over time. At the start of 2008 the average expectation was close to 3%; it was still close to this in the summer of 2012. Although the average was little changed, four years of volatile inflation had changed the spread a lot. In 2008 options pointed to a 90% chance that inflation in 2017 would lie between 1.8% and 5.0%; by July 2012 that range was -2.2% and 7.7% (see right-hand chart). The average investor may not be more concerned about inflation than four years ago, but there is less certainty about where prices are heading. That is worrying in itself.
这些方法同样能够使通胀观察家们测试通胀预期是持续不变还是有扩大的趋势。2012年英格兰银行经济学家汤姆•史密斯(Tom Smith)发表了一篇论文，他跟踪分析了英国的隐含期权通胀预期随时间推移所发生的变化。2008年初，英国平均通胀预期接近3%;直到2012年夏天依然维持在这一水平左右。虽然均值未变，但四年来起伏不定的通胀率改变了预期之间的差额。2008年，期权数据表明2017年通胀率在1.8%到5.0%之间的概率为90%;到2012年7月这一范围变成了-2.2%到7.7%之间(见右表)。一般投资者对通胀的关注与四年前相比或许所差无几，但他们对价格的走向却越来越不确定。而这本身就是一个令人担忧的问题。
Sources
资料来源
Inflation Attitudes Survey, Bank of England/GfK NOP (November 2012)
The Financial Crisis and Inflation Expectations, by Bharat Trehan and Oskar Zorrilla (2012), Federal Reserve Bank of San Fansisco
The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation, by Refet Gurkaynak, Brian Sack and Jonathan Wright (2010), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions, by Yuriy Kitsul and Jonathan Wright (2012), Working Paper 18195
Option-implied probability distributions for future inflation, by Tom Smith (2012), Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 2012 Q3
Economist.com/blogs/freeexchange
[2013.03.16]Credit watch 信贷观察
Buttonwood
梧桐树
Credit watch
信贷观察
A new book argues that investors should focus on the credit cycle, not economic growth
一本新书指出：投资者应当关注信贷周期，而不是经济增长
Mar 16th 2013 |From the print edition
WHEN this millennium began, investors were confident that an era of high stockmarket returns was here to stay. Not only were American share prices at record-high valuations but books like “Dow 36,000” and “Dow 100,000” promised much more to come.
千禧年开始之际，投资者信心满满，认为股票市场高回报的时代已经来临并将永远存在下去。不仅美国的股票价格处于估值的历史高点，而且一些出版物，如《道指36000点》、《道指100000点》等书籍也在向投资者鼓吹：没有最高只有更高。
Alas, the first decade of the 21st century proved a great disappointment. There were two big equity downturns, in 2000-02 and 2007-08; the average pension plan in the OECD achieved a miserly return of just 0.1% a year.
唉!可是事实证明，21世纪头十年是让投资者极度失望的十年。在此期间发生了两次重大股灾，一次是在2000年-2002年间，另一次是在2007年-2008年;在经合组织成员国中，养老金计划的年均收益率仅为可怜的0.1%。
In a new book Thomas Aubrey, a credit analyst, argues that investors have been led astray by the belief that economic growth drives asset-market returns. Not only is it difficult to forecast the economy, studies show there is little relationship between GDP growth and equity returns. First, many quoted companies are multinationals. Second, economic growth is often accompanied by new equity issuance, so the full benefits of growth do not accrue to existing shareholders. And third, it is quite possible for profits to rise much more rapidly when GDP is sluggish, as has indeed been the case in recent years.
信贷分析师托马斯·奥布里在其新书中指出，投资者一直都因“经济增长推高投资收益”这一信条而误入歧途。但相关研究显示，不仅经济难以预测，而且GDP增长与投资回报之间也几乎没有任何关系。其原因有三：第一，多数上市公司都是跨国公司;第二，经济增长常常伴随着新股的发行，因此增长的收益不可能全都落实到现有股东身上;第三，正如近几年的情况那样，当GDP萎靡不振时，利润的增长确确实实有可能比以前更快。
Instead, investors should focus on the credit cycle. The idea derives from Knut Wicksell, a Swedish economist, whose book “Interest and Prices” was published way back in 1898. The basic concept, later taken up by the Austrian economic school, is as follows. When things are in equilibrium, the return on capital (the profits of businesses) should equal the cost of capital (their borrowing costs). If the return on capital is higher than the cost, there will be great demand for credit and an economic boom will ensue. If the return on capital is lower than the cost, there will be a slump as companies go out of business.
相反，投资者应当关注信贷周期。奥布里的分析脱胎于瑞典经济学家克努特·维克塞尔早在1898年出版的《利息与价格》一书中所提出的思想。后来，该理论又被奥地利学派继承。其具体内容如下：在均衡的条件下，资本的回报(即商业利润)应当等同于资本的成本(即借贷成本)。如果回报高于成本，就会存在大量的信贷需求，随之而来的将是经济过热;如果回报低于成本，随着公司纷纷倒闭，经济会陷入衰退。
Mr Aubrey adds the observation that, although businesses know their funding costs, they cannot know their future return on capital. As a result, “entrepreneurs are continually surprised by the differences between actual returns compared with expected returns, which is the cause of the dynamic nature of the economy.”
奥布里对此又做了一些补充。他认为，尽管企业清楚它们的资金成本，但是它们不知道资本的未来回报是多少。结果，“实际回报与预期回报之间的差异常常让企业家感到惊讶，而这正是经济具有动态特征的原因。”
This analysis prompts him to suggest that investors should monitor the difference between the return and cost of capital, a figure he dubs “the Wicksellian differential”. Should the gap be positive and growing, equity prices will rise and the economy will take on more debt. If the gap is falling, equity prices will decline.
在这种分析的启发下，奥布里建议，投资者应当监控资本回报与资本成本之间的差额，他把这种差额称之为“维克塞尔差异”。如果两者之间的差额存在并且不断扩大，股票价格就会上涨，经济体会承担更多的债务;如果差额持续缩小，股票价格就会下跌。
The tricky bit lies in estimating these two numbers. Mr Aubrey uses the return on the corporate sector's invested capital (both debt and equity) for the return on capital, and the five-year moving average of five-year government-bond yields for the cost of capital. This second measure is hardly ideal: even in times of fiscal crisis few companies can borrow as cheaply as the government. But it is the change in trend that matters, and the government-bond yield is at least a consistent measure.
这种分析方法难在如何估算这两个数字。为此，奥布里用企业已投入资本(既包括债务也包括股票)的回报来代替资本回报，用五年期国债收益率的5年移动平均值来代替资本成本。其中的第二种替代标准很难说是完美。因为，即使在财政危机期间，也很少有企业能以政府那样低的成本筹措到资金。但是，5年移动平均值正是那种起作用的趋势变化，同时国债收益率至少也是一种与其相一致的衡量标准。
Mr Aubrey backtested his model between 1986 and 2011, switching into equities when the gap was widening and into government bonds when it was narrowing. The approach would have earned an 8.7% average real return from American assets between 1986 and 2011, more than either equities or bonds would have earned on their own.
奥布里把他的模型放到1986年-2011年之间进行了回归验证，当资本回报与资本成本之间的差额扩大时，就将资金投入到股票市场;当差额缩小时，就转战政府债券。按照这个模型所提供的方法，如果在1986年-2011年间投资于美国资本市场，扣除通胀因素后，其年均收益率为8.7%，比分别投资于股票和债券的收益都要高。
This outperformance occurred even though the model would have switched investors into government bonds from 1996 to 1999, missing the dotcom boom. The model performed far better in the recent crisis, switching investors into government bonds in 2007 and 2008 and back into equities in time for the strong stockmarket rally of 2009 and 2010.
即便投资者按照该模型在1996年-1999年间转投国债，从而错过科技类股票的大幅上涨，该模型依旧会有杰出的表现。在最近的这场危机，该模型表现得更为出色：如果投资者按照该模型在2007年和2008年转投国债，就会躲过当时的股灾;如果投资者随后又因2009年和2010年的大涨而及时撤回到股票市场的话，就能大赚一笔。
At this point, a note of caution is needed. Analyse the data for long enough and it will always be possible to find a model that, in the past, would have delivered outsize returns. All too often, however, such models fail to perform when investors try to use them in practice. For the current year Mr Aubrey says his model favours American equities; the British market is less promising.
关于这一点，投资者有必要保持一丝谨慎。只要接受分析的数据的时间跨度足够长，那么就总有可能找到一种能够在过去的时间里提供超额回报的模型。然而，事实一再告诉我们：当投资者试图将此类模型应用于实践时，模型总是失灵。至于今年，奥布里称他的模型看好美国股票。相比之下，英国市场则没有多少前途。
Even if that turns out to be wrong, at least he is looking in the right direction. His thesis echoes “Manias, Panics and Crashes”, the classic study of bubbles by Charles Kindleberger, which suggested that “the cycle of manias and panics results from the procyclical changes in the supply of credit” as optimistic businesses and consumers take on more debt during booms, only for banks to stop lending in the busts. Anyone who read Kindleberger's book in 1978 was at least forewarned about the past two decades.
即便奥布里的模型最终被证实是错误的，那么这至少也说明他的方向还是正确的。他的理论契合了由查尔斯·金德伯格提出的“疯狂、恐慌和崩溃”的经典泡沫理论，该理论认为，由于乐观的企业和消费者在繁荣期间承担了更多的债务，唯一没有想到的是银行会停止放贷，因此“疯狂和恐慌的周期是信贷供应顺周期
