经济学人三月份的文章加上这篇文章一共四篇，小编就为大家分享这些，如果大家有时间就可以静下心来好好体会一下这份资料的优点。
一、目录
[2013.03.02] The workshop heroes 美国与二战：车里的英雄
[2013.03.02] Special report: Emerging Africa 崛起的非洲
[2013.03.02]Lexington: The view from Maine streets
[2013.03.02] The penny drops 一美分硬币终将退出市场
[2013.03.02] Obsessions 那些痴狂
[2013.03.02] Cuba’s leaders: The new man 古巴政坛新星
[2013.03.02] A hard pounding, this 军工行业遭受重击
[2013.03.07] Timed out 是时候和《时代》说分手了
[2013.03.09]Net benefits 网络净收益
[2013.03.09] Now for the reckoning 下面，让咱们来算算总账吧
[2013.03.09] Fixing the fat cats 修理肥猫
[2013.03.09] Flights of fancy 从幻想到空中翱翔
[2013.03.13] To a war footing 朝鲜半岛正在走向战争
[2013.03.16] Silicon Spring break 硅谷狂欢
[2013.03.16] Looking for India’s Zuckerberg 寻找印度的扎克伯格
[2013.03.16] Russia after Stalin 斯大林离去后的俄罗斯
[2013.03.16] High, wide or handsome
[2013.03.16]Credit watch 信贷观察
[2013-03-16] The economy 美国竞争力报道 - 经济
[2013.03.16] Immigration: Own goal 移民问题：美国自摆乌龙
[2013.03.23]The Alibaba phenomenon 阿里巴巴现象
[2013.03.23] Vape ’em if you got ’em 拿到手，吸两口
[2013.03.23] The joy of stats 玩转统计学
[2013.03.23] Here comes the cavalry 救兵来也
[2013.03.30]Can India become a great power? 印度能成为大国吗?
[2013.03.23] The price of detachment 退居二线的代价
[2013.03.30]Bottoms up 经济转型：基本面分析
二、文章内容
[2013.03.23]The Alibaba phenomenon 阿里巴巴现象
E-commerce in China
电子商务在中国
The Alibaba phenomenon
阿里巴巴现象
China's e-commerce giant could generate enormous wealth—provided the country's rulers leave it alone
只要管理方不加干涉，中国的电子商务巨头能带来巨大的财富
Mar 23rd 2013 |From the print edition
ON ITS way to becoming the world's biggest economy, China is passing another landmark. Its e-commerce market is overtaking America's. And one giant firm dominates the market: Alibaba, by some measures already the world's largest e-commerce company. Last year two of Alibaba's portals together handled 1.1 trillion yuan ($170 billion) in sales, more than eBay and Amazon combined. Alibaba is on track to become the world's first e-commerce firm to handle $1 trillion a year in transactions (see article). Yet despite such extraordinary success, many people outside China have barely noticed the rise of this privately held behemoth.
在成为世界最大经济体的征途上，中国正在跨越一个新的里程碑。其电子商务市场正在超越美国，主宰这一市场的是一家名叫阿里巴巴的大型公司。从某种程度来说，她早已是世界上最大的电子商务公司。去年，阿里巴巴两大门户网站的营业额合计达到1.1万亿元人民币(合1700亿美元)，已经超过了eBay和亚马逊的总和。阿里巴巴正在朝着世界上第一家年交易额达1万亿美元的电子商务公司进发。不过，尽管阿里巴巴的成就如此巨大，但这家私人控股巨头的崛起几乎没有引起中国之外的多数人的注意。
That is about to change. The firm's founder, a former English teacher called Jack Ma, has just announced that he will hand over the chief-executive job to a trusted insider, Jonathan Lu, in May. Soon afterwards, the firm is expected to announce details of its initial public offering (IPO), sure to be the most trumpeted since Facebook’s listing last year—and possibly even bigger, too. Facebook’s IPO valued the company at $104 billion (its market capitalisation has since slipped back to $63 billion). Estimates of the likely valuation of Alibaba range from $55 billion to more than $120 billion.
这种情况即将发生变化。该公司创始人，曾经当过英语教师的马云不久前刚刚宣布，他将于今年五月把首席执行官的职务交给其信任的公司内部人士陆兆禧。之后不久，该公司将宣布首次公开募股(IPO)的细节。阿里巴巴的IPO肯定会成为脸谱于去年上市以来最为沸沸扬扬的事件，同时，阿里巴巴的市值也可能远远超出脸谱。脸谱IPO的公司市值为1040亿美元(其市值在上市后已经萎缩到630亿美元)。据估计，阿里巴巴的市值约为550亿美元到1200多亿美元之间。
The IPO will turn global attention to Alibaba's remarkable rise. And there are other reasons to watch the company closely. One is its future growth potential: if it avoids a Facebook-like fumble, in a few years’ time it could be among the world’s most valuable companies (the current global leader, Apple, now worth around $420 billion, was only valued at $90 billion in 2009). Another is that, as Alibaba expands and moves into new markets, it has the capacity to change China.
阿里巴巴的IPO将把全世界的注意力都集中在她那令人瞩目的崛起之上，同时，还有其他一些原因值得人们去仔细审视这家公司。其中之一是这家公司的未来增长潜力：如果她能避免像脸谱那样在IPO问题上的笨手笨脚，那么用不了几年她就能跻身世界上最值钱的公司之列(目前世界上市值最大的企业为苹果公司，其当前的市值为4200亿美元，但是在2009年时其市值仅为900亿美元)。值得去认真审视的另外一个原因是，随着阿里巴巴的扩张和开拓新市场，她还有着改变中国的能力。
The crocodile of the Yangzi…
长江中的鳄鱼……
Alibaba's story so far has been one of canny innovation and a clear focus on how to win competitive advantage in China. “EBay may be a shark in the ocean,” Mr Ma once said, “but I am a crocodile in the Yangzi river. If we fight in the ocean, we lose; but if we fight in the river, we win.” The crocodile of the Yangzi, as he became known, started the company in 1999 with Alibaba.com, a business-to-business portal connecting small Chinese manufacturers with buyers overseas. Its next invention, Taobao, a consumer-to-consumer portal not unlike eBay, features nearly a billion products and is one of the 20 most-visited websites globally. Tmall, a newish business-to-consumer portal that is a bit like Amazon, helps global brands such as Disney and Levi's reach China's middle classes.
到目前为止，阿里巴巴的成功是一个锐意创新的故事，同时也是一个明确定位于如何在中国国内赢得竞争优势的故事。马云曾经这样说过："EBay可能是汪洋大海中的一条鲨鱼，相比之下我是长江中的一条鳄鱼。如果我们两个在大海中搏斗，输的是我;如果我们在江河湖海中搏斗，那么我就是赢家。"这位被称为长江之鳄的马云于1999年创建了这家公司，其注册名称为Alibaba.com，这是一家将中国小型企业与国外买家联系起来的B2B门户网站。随后，公司推出了另一项创新——淘宝，这是一个类似eBay的C2C门户网站，其特点在于拥有近10亿种的商品，并且还是全球访问量最大的20个网站之一。天猫有点类似于亚马逊的，她是一种新潮的B2C门户网站，在天猫的帮助下，迪斯尼和李维斯等全球性品牌开始为中国中产阶层所接受。
Alibaba could grow even faster. By 2020 China's e-commerce market is forecast to be bigger than the existing markets in America, Britain, Japan, Germany and France combined. And although it is not about to challenge Amazon in America, Alibaba is expanding globally by capturing the spending of Chinese overseas and by moving into emerging economies. In this the firm is helped by Alipay, its novel online-payments system that relies on escrow (releasing money to sellers only once their buyers are happy with the goods received). This builds trust in societies where the rule of law is weak.
阿里巴巴可能会以更快的速度发展。据预测，到2020年时，中国的电子商务市场将将大大超过美国、英国、日本、德国和法国等国现有规模的总和。虽然阿里巴巴不会挑战亚马逊在美国的地位，但是该公司正在通过吸引海外中国人消费和进军新型经济体等手段在全球进行扩张。为公司扩张提供支持的是被称为支付宝的创新性在线支付系统，这是一种第三方支付系统(只有在买家对他们收到的商品感到满意时，系统才给卖家支付款项)。在一个法制尚不健全的社会中，这种系统建立了人们之间的信任。
Perhaps Alibaba's greatest untapped resource is its customer data. Its sites account for over 60% of the parcels delivered in China. It knows more than anyone about the spending habits and creditworthiness of the Chinese middle class, plus millions of Chinese merchants. Alifinance is already a big microlender to small firms; it now plans to expand lending to ordinary consumers. In effect, it is helping liberalise Chinese finance. China’s big state banks, which channel cheap capital to state-owned enterprises, have long neglected everyone else. The firm is using its online platforms to deliver insurance products too, and more such innovations are on the way.
阿里巴巴最大的资源在于其手中尚未得到开发的客户数据。其网站处理的包裹数量超过了中国国内投递量的60%，她不仅最了解人们的消费习惯，而且还清楚中国中产阶层以及数百万生意人的信誉程度。阿里巴巴财务公司早已成为一个巨大的小额贷款方;如今它又在谋划着将业务扩展到给普通消费者提供贷款。实际上，它正为中国人的财政自由化而添砖加瓦，而作为中国国有企业低息贷款渠道的大型国有银行，长期以来一直忽视这方面的业务。同时，该公司还正利用其网络平台销售保险产品，并且还会陆续推出更多的此类创新。
Alibaba thus sits at the heart of “bamboo capitalism”—the sprawling tangle of private-sector firms that are more efficient than China’s state-owned enterprises. Some 6m vendors are listed with its sites. The firm's efforts are boosting productivity in China's woefully inefficient retail and logistics sectors. And, more than any other company, it is speeding up the country’s much-needed shift away from an investment-heavy model of growth towards one that is driven by consumption.
由于以上种种原因，阿里巴巴就成为了“竹节资本主义”的领军人物。所谓“竹节资本主义”指的是遍布于中国各地的私营企业，相比国有企业，这些私企效率更高。目前，阿里巴巴网站的注册商户已接近600万家。公司正努力提升中国效率严重低下的零售行业和物流部门的生产率，同时，该公司还正在加速中国增长模式从以投资为主向以消费为动力的转变。
… is now in dangerous waters
……目前仍处于危险水域
All very promising but like the Yangzi alligator, which is now endangered, there is nothing inevitable about Alibaba’s future fortunes. Three things could yet throw the firm off-course.
尽管所有这一切都令人振奋，但是，就像目前正濒临灭绝的扬子鳄一样，阿里巴巴的未来前景存在着不确定性。目前还有三件事可能让公司的发展偏离正轨。
The most obvious is that it could overreach—and stumble. Coping with the stepping aside of a formidable founder is rarely easy. By China's low standards, Alibaba generally gets good marks for governance, with one caveat: observers have doubts about the murky way in which Mr Ma spun out Alipay from the parent company a few years ago. It will not be able to get away with that as a public company. The same transparency is needed with its products. By Chinese standards it has done a lot to fight fakes, so much so that the American government recently gave Taobao its official blessing. Yet it is still too easy to find knock-offs on that site.
最显而易见的一件事是公司可能过度扩张，从而导致一失足成千古恨。处理好公司杰出创始人的离开从来就不是一件容易的事情。以中国低标准来说，阿里巴巴通常因其管理而获得好评，但也存在着一个令人诟病之处：观察家一直都对马云在前几年将支付宝从母公司中分离出来的含混做法表示怀疑。作为一家上市公司，不应对这类存在侥幸心理。另外，该公司的产品也同样需要的透明度。以中国的标准来衡量，该公司已经在打假方面做了许多工作，甚至美国政府也在前段时间对淘宝给予了官方的认可。不过，目前仍可以轻易地在其网站上发现山寨产品。
Tidying up these things is not just good management. It ties into the second risk—that foreign governments will clamp down on Alibaba. China's companies are viewed with suspicion abroad: its resource-hungry state enterprises have suffered a backlash in Africa (see article); its firms listed on North American stock exchanges have been punished in the wake of accounting scandals; and Huawei, a telecoms giant, has been branded an enemy of the state by American congressmen. It would be sad if Alibaba, which seems to have far fewer ties to the Chinese state, was tarred with the same brush.
清除理顺这些事情不仅仅是良好的管理，同时它还同第二个风险有着紧密的联系。所谓第二个风险是指阿里巴巴将来可能遭遇外国政府的抵制。外国人一般都以怀疑的眼光来看待中国公司。例如，在非洲，急于获得资源的中国公司招来了强烈的抗议;在北美，中国的上市公司在会计丑闻爆发后遭到了惩罚;电信巨头华为公司被美国国会议员贴上了国家公敌的商标。如果似乎同中国政府几乎没有关联的阿里巴巴也染上此类污点，那么这无疑是一件悲哀的事情。
But the greatest threat to the company's future will be at home. Like Amazon or eBay, Alibaba needs to be monitored by antitrust regulators. But the politics of China pose a particular risk. Big banks are already lobbying against its financial arm. The Communist Party is bound to be jealous of an outfit that has so much data on Chinese citizens. For the government to clip Alibaba’s wings without a good cause would be wrong. Alibaba has the potential to become the world’s most valuable company, and in the process help create a better China.
不过，该公司未来的最大威胁还是来自中国国内。就像eBay和亚马逊那样，阿里巴巴必须接受反垄断的监管。但是，中国的政治形成了一种特别的风险。大型银行早就在四处游说，力图缴除阿里巴巴的金融武器。中共必然会对这样一个掌握了如此之多的中国公民数据的公司感到妒忌。对于政府来说，没有好的原因就折掉阿里巴巴的翅膀可能是一个错误。阿里巴巴有成为世界最值钱公司的潜力，而在这个过程当中，她还有助于创建一个更加美好的中国。
[2013.03.23] Vape ’em if you got ’em 拿到手，吸两口
E-cigarettes
电子香烟
Vape ’em if you got ’em
拿到手，吸两口
A challenge to Big Tobacco
烟草巨头面临挑战
Mar 23rd 2013 | WASHINGTON, DC |From the print edition
The latest wheeze 新式吸烟法
BETTING against an industry with addicts for customers carries obvious risks. But these are uncertain times for Big Tobacco. Electronic cigarettes, once dismissed as a novelty, now pose a serious threat. E-cigarettes work by turning nicotine-infused liquid into vapour, which is then inhaled. A user is therefore said to be “vaping”, not smoking. More important, he or she is not inhaling all the noxious substances found in ordinary smokes.
与一个受众都已上瘾的行业对着干显然是有风险的。但是这次，大型烟草公司也并非把握十足。电子香烟一度被他们视为不值一提的小玩意，现在却产生了实实在在的威胁。电子香烟的工作原理是把混入尼古丁的液体汽化，然后供吸烟者吸入。因此应该说这不是吸烟，而是在“吸雾”。更重要的是，吸烟者吸入的有害物质比传统香烟要少。
In 2012 sales of e-cigarettes in America were between $300m and $500m, say analysts. That is paltry compared with the $80 billion-plus market for conventional cigarettes in the country. But e-cigarette sales doubled last year, and are expected to double again in 2013. Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo, a bank, believes sales of e-cigarettes could overtake sales of the normal sort within a decade.
有分析家指出，2012年美国的电子香烟销售额为3亿到5亿美元。与传统香烟800多亿美元的市场相比这显得微不足道，但是电子香烟去年的销售额已经翻了一番，而且预计2013年还会再次翻番。美国富国银行的邦妮·赫尔佐克认为，10年之内电子香烟的销售额就会超过传统香烟。
That may depend on how governments react. E-cigarettes are probably not good for you. One study showed that vaping decreased lung capacity. Yet a switch from smoking to vaping could improve public health, some say. E-cigarettes may help smokers quit more efficiently than nicotine patches or gum. This notion has not been thoroughly tested, however, so governments are wary.
这大概要看美国政府作何反应。电子香烟对身体也没什么好处。一份研究显示，吸入蒸汽会导致肺活量下降。但也有人说，从吸烟转为吸雾对公共健康是有好处的。与尼古丁贴片或口香糖相比，电子香烟还能帮助吸烟者更有效的戒烟。这一点尚未得到充分验证，所以政府对此还十分谨慎。
America has warned e-cigarette manufacturers not to make health claims. New tobacco guidelines in Europe would either tightly limit the nicotine content of e-cigarettes or force them to undergo clinical trials, as pharmaceutical products do. Elsewhere a patchwork of regulation exists, including outright bans in some countries.
美国政府已经告知电子香烟生产商，不许做出健康声明。欧洲新推出的烟草标准要么对电子香烟中的尼古丁成分严加限制，要么要求他们像医药产品一样，必须接受临床试验。其他地区也有各式各样的相关规定，有的国家干脆完全将其禁止。
None of this has stopped companies from pitching to consumers. In America and Britain advertisements for e-cigarettes have appeared on television—forbidden territory for standard cigarettes. Craig Weiss, the head of NJOY, America’s top-selling brand of e-cigarettes, vows to make traditional ones obsolete. His ads crow: “Cigarettes, you’ve met your match.”
但是以上种种都不能阻挡电子香烟企业向消费者进军的脚步。在美国和英国，香烟广告是禁止登上电视荧幕的，可电子香烟却堂而皇之的出现在了荧屏上。美国最畅销的电子香烟品牌是NJOY，公司总裁克雷格·维斯誓言要将传统香烟淘汰出局。该公司在广告中不无得意的宣称：“香烟，你的对手来了。”
America’s tobacco giants do not think he is blowing smoke. Last year Lorillard (the maker of brands such as Newport and Kent) bought Blu, an e-cigarette maker, for $135m. NJOY is rumoured to be facing a takeover, perhaps by Altria (the maker of Marlboro). Foreign cigarette makers, such as British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco International, also have stakes in the industry, while other firms are working on their own vaporous offerings.
美国的烟草巨头们很清楚他不是在信口开河。去年罗瑞拉德(纽波特和肯特等品牌的香烟制造商)以1.35亿美元收购了电子香烟生产商Blu。有传言NJOY也面临收购，买家可能是奥驰亚(万宝路制造商)。其他国家的香烟厂商，比如英美烟草集团和日本烟草国际公司，也有涉足电子香烟行业，还有些公司正在开发自己的电子香烟产品。
E-cigarette executives dream of relegating traditional cigarettes to the ashtray of history. But as they struggle with taxes, patents and red tape, they may come to envy Big Tobacco’s deep pockets. More deals are likely, thrashed out no doubt in vapour-filled rooms.
电子香烟企业的高管们梦想着把传统香烟丢进历史的烟灰缸里。但当他们疲于应付税收、专利和政府官僚时，大概又要羡慕烟草巨头们丰厚的家底了。更多交易大概还在研讨中，毫无疑问，他们的会议室里一定会雾气缭绕。
[2013.03.23] The joy of stats 玩转统计学
Statistics and probability
统计和概率
The joy of stats
玩转统计学
An accessible primer on number-crunching
数据处理入门指南
Mar 23rd 2013 |From the print edition
Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread From the Data. By Charles Wheelan. Norton; 282 pages; $26.95. Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk
书名：《赤裸裸的统计学：剥开数据枯燥的外壳(Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread From the Data)》
作者：Charles Wheelan
出版社：Norton，页数：282页，价格：26.95美元
Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk 有售
DATA are everywhere these days; the problem is making sense of them. That is the role of statistics, the university course that so many people dodge or forget. Charles Wheelan, a professor at Dartmouth College (and a former Chicago correspondent for The Economist), does something unique here: he makes statistics interesting and fun. His book strips the subject of its complexity to expose the sexy stuff underneath.
当今世界，数据到处都是，然而要读懂数据却是个难题。于是就有了统计学，大学里这门课有不少人有意无意地翘过。达特茅斯大学教授Charles Wheelan(曾任《经济学人》驻芝加哥通讯员)做了一件别出心裁的事情，把统计学变得有趣又好玩。他以一本新书层层剥开繁复的外壳，让这个学科魅力毕现。
Statistics and probability are important intellectual tools. Statistics allow the compression of a massive amount of information to a few meaningful numbers. Probability enables people to make reasonable decisions with imperfect information by quantifying their uncertainty. They are the bedrock of modern society, from putting rockets into orbit to managing spam filters. People from all walks of life are finding that they need a familiarity with figures and statistics.
The problem is that the subject is typically taught by people who like statistics, rather than those who simply care about putting them to use. “Naked Statistics” is interesting because it focuses on the purpose of stats, not their inner elegance. And it relies on Mr Wheelan’s trademark silly humour (introduced in an earlier book, “Naked Economics”) to keep the reader at ease and engaged.
统计和概率学是处理信息的重要工具。利用统计学，能够将大量信息压缩成几个有意义的数字。利用概率学，人们就能量化不确定性，在信息不完整的情况下合理决策。不管是送卫星上天还是拦截垃圾邮件，都离不开这两个工具，它们可以说是现代社会的基石。人们发现，各行各业都越来越需要用上数据、统计方面的知识。可问题是，教这门课的大多是热爱统计学的人，而不是就只想了解、应用这个工具的人。“赤裸裸的统计学”有趣就有趣在它重点关注的是统计学的用途，而不是其内在的美感。此外，Wheelan先生特别的冷幽默风格(在他上一本书《赤裸裸的经济学》中有所介绍)，让这本书更加轻松易读。
The results work wonderfully. After starting with concepts like mean, standard deviation and correlation, the reader ploughs into the central-limit theorem. This says that, properly drawn, sample means follow a normal distribution. In so doing, they should not differ markedly from the overall population or other samples. What is the point of that? Mr Wheelan explains it in terms of looking for a missing bus of marathon runners (who would be expected to weigh less than the average) and finding one filled with overweight people (who are heading to a sausage festival, it is later disclosed). Though one or two hefty runners might be on a bus which is going to a marathon, it is unlikely that every seat would be filled with a chunky person. The central-limit theorem lets commuters quantify the prediction that they may have found the wrong bus.
这本书指导效果非常好。读者从平均数、标准差和相关等概念开始学习，渐渐深入到中心极限定理这样的程度。中心极限定理说的是： 如果适当抽样，那么某抽样所得样本的均值应当遵循正态分布。正因为如此，该样本均值不应当与总体或者其他样本差别太大。 这有什么意义呢?Wheelan先生是这样解释的。假设有一辆载满马拉松运动员(体重想必比一般人轻)的公交车不见了，结果找到一辆载满胖子(后来发现他们正要去参加吃烤肠比赛)的公交车。马拉松选手里面可能也有一两个略重的，但是满车都是胖子不大可能。利用中心极限定理，乘客们就可以从数据中发现端倪，知道他们可能找错了车子。
And so it goes. The reader learns why insurance for low-cost items is worthless and why playing the lottery is a quick way to become poor. More seriously, the book explains the basic statistical approaches used in a 2011 study showing a link between a child’s brain size and autism. And it teems with interesting statistical facts, such as that there may have been an extra 1,000 deaths in the three months after September 11th 2001 because more people chose to drive rather than fly.
就这样，读者明白了为什么给不值钱的玩意投保是不值当的，又为什么买彩票是脱富致贫的捷径。此外，作者还解释了2001年的一项研究如何利用基本的统计学方法找到了儿童大脑体积与自闭症之间的关系。这本书里到处都是妙趣横生的统计实例。比如，2011年9月11日之后，不愿乘飞机、改乘汽车的人增多了，所以在之后的三个月中，有一千人因此丧生。
At every step Mr Wheelan explains statistical concepts as they relate to natural intuitions about how the world works. (He also shows that where intuition fails, statistics are needed to inform decisions.) He sticks to the big picture, leaving the nettlesome details and maths formulae to short appendices after the chapter.
每讲一步，Wheelan先生都会解释一下统计学概念与人们对世间现象的直觉感知有何关联。(有时他也会告诉读者如何用统计结果来弥补直觉的差错，合理做出决策。)书的主体部分提纲挈领，盘根错节的细部信息和数学方程式都在章节末尾的附录中做了补充。
Mr Wheelan is wary of “big data” (supersized data sets) since the abundance of information may lead to spurious correlations—associations that seem to be related but happen just by chance. (Nate Silver, the boy-wonder of stats, shares that unease in his recent book, “The Signal and the Noise”.) Sadly, “Naked Statistics” is mute on what to do about this, even though big data is a reality.
Wheelan先生对“大数据”(超大型数据库)心存疑虑，因为大量的信息往往会导致伪相关——有些关联看似蹊跷，其实纯属巧合。(统计学界的神童Nate Silver在他的新书《信号和噪音》中也谈到了这种担心。)不过遗憾的是，虽然大数据问题已经实实在在地摆在了我们的面前，《赤裸裸的统计学》一书中对这个问题的解决之道却语焉不详。
The book ends by delving a little too much into specific quandaries rather than stepping back and making broader points about, say, the limitations of number-crunching in a world that is becoming more dependent on these techniques. But that is a quibble. “Naked Statistics” is a revealing look at statistics’ bare essentials.
该书结尾对具体困境阐释略多，没有高屋建瓴地讨论统计数据处理技术的局限性、反思人类对这些技术日益严重的依赖。不过这属于笔者吹毛求疵了。《赤裸裸的统计学》深入浅出地揭示了统计学最基础、核心的知识。
[2013.03.23] Here comes the cavalry 救兵来也
The Los Angeles Times
《洛杉矶时报》
Here comes the cavalry
救兵来也
Glimmers of hope for a long-suffering newspaper
困顿已久的《洛杉矶时报》终见一丝希望的曙光
Mar 23rd 2013 | LOS ANGELES |From the print edition
IN 1910 trade unionists aggrieved by the anti-labour stance of the Los Angeles Times bombed the newspaper’s offices, killing 21 workers. It is rare for today’s Times to ignite similar passions. But an impressive slate of possible buyers for the newspaper, the fourth-most widely read in the United States, suggests that it still carries some heft.
1910年，工会成员对《洛杉矶时报》的反劳工立场愤愤不平，对报社进行炸弹袭击，造成21名报社员工死亡。而以其今时今日的地位，《洛杉矶时报》难以再激起这样的怒潮。不过最近有不少大腕争相收购《洛杉矶时报》，可见这份全美销量第四的报纸还是有一定影响力的。
For decades the Times was one of the few institutions capable of knitting together the disparate neighbourhoods of its sprawling city. Older generations of the Chandler family used it as a mouthpiece for their largely right-wing interests. Otis Chandler, who took over in 1960, sought to create a rival to the east-coast giants; he invested generously, opening bureaus at home and abroad and earning profits and Pulitzers. The paper often outsold theNew York Times until the early 1990s.
数十年来，能维系无序扩张的洛杉机和周边与其格格不入的地区之间联系的机构屈指可数，而《洛杉矶时报》是其中之一。钱德勒家族的老一辈曾把这份报纸当作喉舌来维护他们(基本上属于)右翼党派的利益。1960年，奥帝森•钱德勒(Otis Chandler)接管报社，用心经营，立志要与东海岸的报业巨头旗鼓相当;为此他大举投资，在国内外开设分社，《洛杉矶时报》不但赚取了利润，还获得普利策奖。直到二十世纪九十年代初期，这份报纸的销量仍常在《纽约时报》之上。
But the Los Angeles Times has suffered more than most over the past two decades. In 2000, with circulation and advertising revenue plummeting, the Chandlers offloaded it to the Tribune Company, owner of the Chicago Tribune. Sackings and cuts followed, and worse was to come. In December 2007 a leveraged buy-out of Tribune by Sam Zell, a brash property mogul, saddled the firm with $8 billion in new debt. A year later Tribune slid into America’s largest-ever media bankruptcy.
但过去二十年里，《洛杉矶时报》经历的困境实非一般报社可比。2000年，由于发行量和广告收入暴跌，钱德勒家族将《洛杉矶时报》卖给了论坛报业集团，《芝加哥论坛报》亦属该集团所有。裁员和削减预算紧接而至，很快《洛杉矶时报》便跌入谷底。2007年12月，不可一世的地产大亨山姆兹尔(Sam Zell)通过杠杆式收购买下论坛报业集团，令该公司平添了80亿新债务。1年之后，论坛报业集团申请破产，成为美国申请破产的媒体公司中有史以来规模最大的一家。
Today the mood may at last be lifting among the Times’s 500-odd editorial staff (down from a peak of 1,300 or so). The Tribune Company has emerged from bankruptcy and wants to sell the Times (which still turns a profit), the Tribune and six smaller newspapers, leaving it to focus on its lucrative television assets. Several potential buyers for Tinseltown’s favourite newspaper have emerged.
如今，《洛杉矶时报》的500多名(顶峰时期曾有约1300名)编辑人员大概终于可以展颜一笑了。现在论坛报业集团已走出破产阴影，东山再起，意欲卖掉(如今仍然盈利的)《洛杉矶时报》、《芝加哥论坛报》及其他6份较小的报纸，一心经营利润丰厚的电视台业务。现在已有好几个买家打算收购这份最受浮华城喜爱的报纸。
For those who want the Times back in local hands, the best prospect may be a rumoured alliance of Eli Broad, a billionaire philanthropist, and Austin Beutner, a former investment banker and deputy mayor. Both have a record of backing civic projects in a city not overburdened with them. Other possible buyers include Aaron Kushner, who has poured money into the nearby Orange County Register; the new publishing arm of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation; and the multibillionaire Koch brothers, whose tea-party politics would fit a Democratic city awkwardly. Some buyers might be put off by the reported wish of Tribune’s hedge-fund owners to sell all eight papers to one buyer.
传闻亿万富翁慈善家埃利•布罗德(Eli Broad)和曾任投资银行家及副市长的奥斯汀•布特纳(Austin Beutner)将联手收购《洛杉矶时报》，这对于那些希望由本地人重新接手《洛杉矶时报》的人而言，可能是最理想的情况。二人都曾投资过洛杉机一些成功的市政工程。其他竞争收购者包括： 亚伦•卡什纳(Aaron Kushner)和身家数十亿的科赫(Koch)兄弟;前者投资了邻近地区的鲁伯特•默多克报业集团旗下的新出版机构《橘郡纪事报》，而后者二人奉行的茶党政治会与这个民主党城市格格不入。据报道，论坛报业集团的对冲基金股东有意将8份报纸卖给同一位买家，这个消息可能令部分买家望而却步。
The Times’s circulation has lately stabilised, albeit after a huge decline. But the new owner will face challenges that go beyond the drops in readership and advertising familiar to all print-media moguls. Chief among these is that it must decide whether it is a local or a national paper. Many expect the next owner to focus on city and state coverage; Mr Beutner has indicated that he would do so. The glory days of the Times are probably behind it, but at least it may now have a future.
近日，《洛杉矶时报》的发行量稳定了下来，尽管相比之前大幅下降。不过，除了销量和广告量下降这些所有印刷媒体巨头司空见惯的困难外，《洛杉矶时报》的新老板还面临着更加艰巨的挑战。其中最重要的是定位：办地方性报纸还是全国性报纸。很多人期望下一位老板能注重报道自己城市及本州的新闻，奥斯汀•布特纳也表示他会在这方面做出努力。《洛杉矶时报》的光辉岁月也许已经逝去，但至少尚有前途可言。
[2013.03.30]Can India become a great power? 印度能成为大国吗?
India
印度
Can India become a great power?
印度能成为大国吗?
India's lack of a strategic culture hobbles its ambition to be a force in the world
印度在战略文化方面的匮乏束缚了她成为世界性大国的野心
Mar 30th 2013 |From the print edition
NOBODY doubts that China has joined the ranks of the great powers: the idea of a G2 with America is mooted, albeit prematurely. India is often spoken of in the same breath as China because of its billion-plus population, economic promise, value as a trading partner and growing military capabilities. All five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council support—however grudgingly—India's claim to join them. But whereas China's rise is a given, India is still widely seen as a nearly-power that cannot quite get its act together.
中国已经加入世界大国行列是一个不争的事实：尽管时机尚未成熟，但是中美形成G2的观念已经成为人们的讨论话题。由于其十几亿的人口、经济发展的前景、作为贸易伙伴的价值以及日益增长的军事实力，人们常以谈论中国的口吻来谈论印度。尽管心里极不不情愿，联合国安理会五大常任理事国还是支持印度要求加入其中的主张。但是，相比中国崛起这一既成事实，印度在多数人眼中依旧只是一个无法完全做到与其他大国步调一致的准大国。
That is a pity, for as a great power, India would have much to offer. Although poorer and less economically dynamic than China, India has soft power in abundance. It is committed to democratic institutions, the rule of law and human rights. As a victim of jihadist violence, it is in the front rank of the fight against terrorism. It has a huge and talented diaspora. It may not want to be co-opted by the West but it shares many Western values. It is confident and culturally rich. If it had a permanent Security Council seat (which it has earned by being one of the most consistent contributors to UN peacekeeping operations) it would not instinctively excuse and defend brutal regimes. Unlike China and Russia, it has few skeletons in its cupboard. With its enormous coastline and respected navy (rated by its American counterpart, with which it often holds exercises, as up to NATO standard) India is well-placed to provide security in a critical part of the global commons.
这是印度的悲哀。因为，作为一个大国，印度本应做出更多的贡献。尽管财力不如中国，经济也不像中国那样具有活力，但印度的软实力还是相当强大的。她致力于民主、法治和人权;作为圣战的受害者，她身处反恐战争的前沿;她拥有一大批有天分的海外留学人员;她虽然不想被西方同化，却与西方共同享有众多的价值观。这是一个自信并且文化丰富多彩的国家。如果她获得了安理会的永久席位(她可以作为联合国维和行动最积极参与者之一而获得这一席位)，她不会本能地去宽恕残暴政权，也不会为他们提供庇护。印度不同于俄罗斯和中国，她几乎没有什么不可告人的秘密。由于其广阔的领海和实力相当的海军(按照经常与其进行演习的美国同行的评定，印度的海军实力已经接近北约的水平)，印度正好处于为这块关键的公海提供安全保障的有利位置。
The modest power
没有脾气的大国
Yet India's huge potential to be a force for stability and an upholder of the rules-based international system is far from being realised. One big reason is that the country lacks the culture to pursue an active security policy. Despite a rapidly rising defence budget, forecast to be the world's fourth-largest by 2020, India's politicians and bureaucrats show little interest in grand strategy (see article). The foreign service is ridiculously feeble—India's 1.2 billion people are represented by about the same number of diplomats as Singapore's 5m. The leadership of the armed forces and the political-bureaucratic establishment operate in different worlds. The defence ministry is chronically short of military expertise.
然而，印度不仅远未认识到其成为稳定力量的巨大潜力，同时也离国际法律秩序维护者的地位有相当一段距离。其中一个重要的原因在于，这个国家缺乏一种追求积极主动的安全政策的文化。尽管国防预算增长迅速(有预测认为，到2020年时，印度将成为世界上第四大军事大国)，但印度的政客和官僚对国家大战略几乎没有什么兴趣。其外事服务之薄弱已经到了荒唐可笑的地步——代表印度12亿人口的外交官人数竟同只有500万人口的新加坡一样多。印度武装部队的指挥系统与官僚机构各行其是，而国防部也长时间缺乏军事指挥才能。
These weaknesses partly reflect a pragmatic desire to make economic development at home the priority. India has also wisely kept generals out of politics (a lesson ignored elsewhere in Asia, not least by Pakistan, with usually parlous results). But Nehruvian ideology also plays a role. At home, India mercifully gave up Fabian economics in the 1990s (and reaped the rewards). But diplomatically, 66 years after the British left, it still clings to the post-independence creeds of semi-pacifism and “non-alignment”: the West is not to be trusted.
这些弱点部分地反映了印度以国内经济发展为首要任务的务实需求。印度还明智地把军人排除在政治体系之外(这是一个被亚洲其他国家，尤其是被巴基斯坦所忽视的经验教训)。但是，尼赫鲁主义的意识形态也在发挥着作用。在国内事务方面，印度早在上世纪90年代就放弃了费边主义经济学(并且从中得到了回报)。但是，在外交方面，该国在英国已经离开66年之后仍在固守着后独立时期的平衡政策与“不结盟”信条不放。因为在他们看来，西方是不可依赖的。
India's tradition of strategic restraint has in some ways served the country well. Having little to show for several limited wars with Pakistan and one with China, India tends to respond to provocations with caution. It has long-running territorial disputes with both its big neighbours, but it usually tries not to inflame them (although it censors any maps which accurately depict where the border lies, something its press shamefully tolerates). India does not go looking for trouble, and that has generally been to its advantage.
印度在战略上的克制传统以某些方式为国家带来了一定的利益。除了同巴基斯坦有过几次有限度的战争，并且还同中国发生过一场战争之外，印度往往以谨慎的态度来应对挑衅。她同周边的几个大国历来存在边界纠纷，但印度通常不主动去激怒这些国家(尽管印度对地图是否准确地标注了边界要进行审查。但可耻的是，印度的媒体对政府的审查行为表现出容忍的态度)。印度一般不会主动去找麻烦，而这一点通常能让她处于有利的位置。
Indispensable India
不可或缺的大国
But the lack of a strategic culture comes at a cost. Pakistan is dangerous and unstable, bristling with nuclear weapons, torn apart by jihadist violence and vulnerable to an army command threatened by radical junior officers. Yet India does not think coherently about how to cope. The government hopes that increased trade will improve relations, even as the army plans for a blitzkrieg-style attack across the border. It needs to work harder at healing the running sore of Kashmir and supporting Pakistan's civilian government. Right now, for instance, Pakistan is going through what should be its first transition from one elected civilian government to the next. India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, should support this process by arranging to visit the country's next leader.
但是，战略文化的缺乏必然要付出一定的代价。巴基斯坦局势动荡，手中又拥有核武器，圣战使该国四分五裂，同时这个国家在面对受激进基层军官胁迫的军方将领时又显得非常脆弱。然而，在如何应对的问题上，印度国内却拿不出一个统一的方案。甚至就在军方计划越过边界发动闪电战的同时，政府方面还在希望以增进贸易的方式来改善两国关系。印度有必要拿出更多的努力来愈合克什米尔这个脓疮，同时还有必要支持巴基斯坦的民选政府。例如，巴基斯坦目前正在进行文官政府的首次交接，印度总理曼莫汉·辛格应安排一次对这个国家下任领导人的拜访以示对这一的支持。
China, which is increasingly willing and able to project military power, including in the Indian Ocean, poses a threat of a different kind. Nobody can be sure how China will use its military and economic clout to further its own interests and, perhaps, put India's at risk. But India, like China's other near neighbours, has every reason to be nervous. The country is particularly vulnerable to any interruption in energy supplies (India has 17% of the world's population but just 0.8% of its known oil and gas reserves).
至于意愿日渐增强并且也有能力在印度洋等地投送军事力量的中国，她对印度形成了另一种形式的威胁。没有人能确切地了解，中国将如何利用其军事和经济的影响力来增进其利益。同时，也没有人能确切地了解，中国这样做是否有可能将印度至于危险之中。但是，就像中国的其他邻国那样，印度完全有理由对此表示不安。这个国家在任何的能源供应中断面前都非常脆弱(印度的人口占世界总人口的17%，而其已探明的油气储备之战世界总量的0.8%)。
India should start to shape its own destiny and the fate of its region. It needs to take strategy more seriously and build a foreign service that is fitting for a great power—one that is at least three times bigger. It needs a more professional defence ministry and a unified defence staff that can work with the country's political leadership. It needs to let private and foreign firms into its moribund state-run defence industry. And it needs a well-funded navy that can become both a provider of maritime security along some of the world's busiest sea-lanes and an expression of India's willingness to shoulder the responsibilities of a great power.
印度既要改变自己的前途，也应去影响整个地区的命运。她需要以更加严肃的态度来对待国家战略;并且要建立一个与其大国地位相适应的外事服务体系——规模至少要是目前的3倍;她还需要一个更加专业化的国防部和一支更加统一的军官队伍，并使这支队伍能同该国的政治体系进行合作;她需要让私营企业与外国公司进入已经奄奄一息的国营军工行业;她需要一支资金充足的海军，同时还要使这支海军既能够成为世界上某些最繁忙海上航路的战时安全保障者，也能够成为印度准备承担起大国责任这一意愿的表露。
Most of all, though, India needs to give up its outdated philosophy of non-alignment. Since the nuclear deal with America in 2005, it has shifted towards the west—it tends to vote America's way in the UN, it has cut its purchases of Iranian oil, it collaborates with NATO in Afghanistan and co-ordinates with the West in dealing with regional problems such as repression in Sri Lanka and transition in Myanmar—but has done so surreptitiously. Making its shift more explicit, by signing up with Western-backed security alliances, would be good for the region, and the world. It would promote democracy in Asia and help bind China into international norms. That might not be in India's short-term interest, for it would risk antagonising China. But looking beyond short-term self-interest is the kind of thing a great power does.
然而，重中之重的是，印度需要放弃她那已经过时的不结盟政策。自2005年与美国达成核协议之后，印度已经转向西方——她往往会在联合国投票支持美国的议案，她已经不再从伊朗购买石油，她在阿富汗与北约合作，并且还在处理斯里兰卡的镇压行为和缅甸的转变等地区性问题上同西方进行合作——但是，这个国家的上述行为都过于遮遮掩掩。印度应以同西方支持的安全盟友签署盟约的方式来更明确地表明自己的这种转变。这样做不仅对地区有好处，对世界也有好处。它能促进亚洲的民主，并且有助于中国遵守世界的规范。因为这样做有可能要冒着激怒中国的风险，因此可能并不符合印度的短期利益。但是，放弃短期的自身利益正是一个大国该做的事情。
That India can become a great power is not in doubt. The real question is whether it wants to.
这样的印度毫无疑问能成为一个大国，但真正的问题在于：印度是否想这样做。
[2013.03.23] The price of detachment 退居二线的代价
Lexington
列克星敦
The price of detachment
退居二线的代价
By shunning foreign entanglements, does Barack Obama risk losing his global bully pulpit?
拒绝卷入外部纷争——这是巴拉克•奥巴马在冒着失去世界天字第一号讲坛的风险么?
Mar 23rd 2013 |From the print edition
IF AMERICA grows unwilling to carry a big stick, will speaking softly work? The question remains somewhat theoretical. Even in its post-Iraq, sequester-pinched state America’s armed forces have no global rivals. But tests may come, and soon.
如果美国开始变得不愿意挥动警棍，那么不愠不火的言辞能起到效果吗?问题的提出在理论上还是有一定依据的。甚至是在后伊拉克战争时期，孤立目标实施打击的美国军队放眼世界仍找不到对手。不过，试炼终究会进行的，而且会很快。
Under Barack Obama, American foreign policy has become ever warier of security entanglements with foes and friends alike. Mr Obama does not just want to save resources for nation-building back home (though that is certainly part of it). Officials and diplomats say he also wants other powers to step up and take on more responsibilities, rather than assume that America will always be the security guarantor of last resort.
无论是敌人还是盟友，奥巴马政府的外交政策在国家安全介入的问题上做得尤为谨慎。奥巴马想要做的并不仅仅是节省资源，以供国家建设实施“回到家来”政策(尽管这的的确确是目标之一)。办公室官员或者外交官称奥巴马还希望其他大国势力能够发挥效能，承担更多的责任，而不是猜测美国应该会一如既往的做最后那根安全保卫工作的救命稻草。
Yet Mr Obama’s caution co-exists with an abundant willingness to advise others about their own best interests. That is a tricky combination to pull off. Get it wrong, and America risks being seen as unwilling to play global policeman, while still being happy to play global scold.
对待他国，在谨慎的基础上，奥巴马还会谈及如何使得对方利益最大化，并且干劲十足地去提供良策。这套政策的组合拳打得很巧妙，也很艰难。一步出现失误，美国就会让世人感觉到它并不愿意去扮演“世界警察”的角色，而美国还是得乐此不疲的挥动警棍。
To be fair, when Mr Obama finds himself nagging foreigners to be more sensible, he is often acting at the urging of alarmed neighbours or allies. Indeed, nagging foreigners has been part of an American president’s job description for a century or more. What is new is that the nagging is now being done by a post-cold war, globalisation-buffeted ex-hyperpower whose president believes that American intervention often causes as many problems as it solves. Alas for Mr Obama, a dilemma looms: in foreign affairs the ability to scold effectively requires some underpinning by a willingness to engage.
公公道道的讲，奥巴马发现自己叨扰的结果是让他国变得更为理智时，他会时不时以居安思危的邻国或者盟友身份充当一股鞭策的力量。的确一个多世纪以来，对着其他国家“絮叨”一直是美国总统们的份内之职。而如今不同的地方在于“絮絮叨叨”的是一个冷战之后的美国，一个进行全球打击的美国，一个原超级大国的美国;眼下这个美国的总统认为美国介入留下的后遗症会和它解决的麻烦一样多。奥巴马真是可怜，两难境地赫然耸现：外交事务上面，如果试图更具效率的解决问题，那么还是要避免不情不愿的心理作祟。
Take the Middle East, scene of the first overseas trip of Mr Obama’s second term, due to take in Israel, the Palestinian-controlled West Bank and Jordan from March 20th to 23rd. Officials could scarcely have done more to lower expectations for the journey, Mr Obama’s first to Israel since becoming president. Expect no grand plan for peace between Israel and the Palestinians, Mr Obama told American-Jewish leaders before his departure. A White House spokesman, pondering planned meetings with regional leaders, predicted discussions about how America might “affect the trajectory” of political movements sweeping the Arab world, while leaving final outcomes for locals to determine. Pressed on the bloodletting in Syria, the White House talked of funds for refugees and fell back on assurances that America has a strong stake in seeing that the violence “is ended”.
就拿中东为例。3月20日到23日，奥巴马第二任期海外的第一站，包括以色列、巴勒斯坦控制下的约旦河西岸以及约旦。官员也不敢对这次海外之行抱有一丝一毫的期待，这是奥巴马总统第一次到以色列来。对于巴以冲突没有什么灵丹妙药，奥巴马临行前这样和在美国政府工作的犹太高层说。白宫一位发言人考虑计划与地方关于举行会谈，预计谈话内容是关于美国使出怎样的政治手段才能在整理扫清阿拉伯世界，从而“影响轨道发射轨迹”，当然最终“导弹”目标要留给阿拉伯人来决定。由于叙利亚流血事件而受到责问，白宫声称会对难民拨款安置，然后转而自信满满的说美国有足够的筹码预算暴力冲突“结束了”。
For all their caution, Obama aides could not conceal one big ambition for the trip: to use the president’s powers of persuasion to mend frayed ties of trust with the Israeli public. That means convincing ordinary Israelis that Mr Obama will do what it takes to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon—and that this guarantee transcends otherwise dreadful relations with Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu. American officials also stressed the importance of a speech to Israeli students scheduled for March 21st, described as a chance to speak directly to the Israeli public and ask them to consider what true security for their country might mean. That sounded like an appeal to consider whether Israel’s future is really served by politicians promoting an unyielding line on coexistence with the Palestinians.
就其所有的小心谨慎而言，不难看出奥巴马的助手对于此次中东之行还是有一个很大的期许的：利用总统言语的权威性来修补以色列公众对两国磨损关系的不信任。也就是要让以色列普通百姓确信奥巴马先生会做他所能做到的任何事来防止伊朗拥有核武——这项承诺超出范围，不过也是为了不与以色列总理本雅明•内塔尼亚胡闹僵。定于3月21日针对以色列学生的一次演讲，美国方面也是相当重视，他们认为在演讲中有机会与以色列公众直接沟通以及问询他们所认为自己国家安全的真正定义是什么。这就像是在呼吁民众考虑是否以色列的将来会真正的建立在政客们努力划出的与巴勒斯坦的停战线上。
To some in Mr Obama’s administration, Israel is a prime example of a country which mistakes its own interests, in part because it takes for granted American support. But seen from Washington, other alarming examples abound. To list just some, officials talk of urging the Palestinian Authority to see that its interests lie in the unpromising slog of talks with Israel, and not in a tempting rupture with the status quo, for instance by trying to haul Israel before the International Criminal Court. America’s strategy of nuclear diplomacy with Iran, backed by sanctions, rests on convincing ayatollahs that, in dreaming of a sprint to a bomb, they are misjudging their national interest. In Syria, even as Mr Obama resists calls for American intervention, his envoys have worked hard to persuade the Russians that they are hurting themselves in sticking by the Assad regime.
奥巴马政府一些官员表示以色列就是一个误判自身利益国家的绝佳例证，一部分原因是以色列把美国的帮助看作理所应当。但是华府表示这样的国家不胜枚举。此处只列出几个，美方敦促巴勒斯坦当局将其利益着眼点还是要放在与以色列进行毫无希望的而且熬人的谈判上，不要试着与实际情况划清界限，比如强迫以色列上国际犯罪法庭。对于伊朗核计划，美国策略是依靠说服伊朗穆斯林什叶派领袖阿亚拉图，告诉他们伊朗将信仰寄托于一颗炸弹上绝对是在把国家利益比如绝境。叙利亚问题，即便奥巴马拒绝参与其中，他的特使还是不辞辛劳的在说服俄罗斯，不与阿萨德政权撇开关系，到最后势必会受到牵连。
In Asia, America’s relations with Pakistan and with the Afghan government of Hamid Karzai are one long argument about overlapping interests, differently perceived. Further east Mr Obama’s envoys have told Chinese leaders that if they dislike America’s more robust presence in their back yard, then China’s self-interest lies in reining in North Korea, avoiding territorial rows that alarm neighbours, and generally signing up to great-power rules and norms. At the Lilliputian end of the scale, American envoys nag European governments, for their own sakes, to fix their union (and nag Britain to resist the urge to leave it).
亚洲情况则不同，美国与巴基斯坦和阿富汗哈米德•卡尔扎伊政府的关系一直被看作是利益的重叠区。远东，奥巴马特使与中国领导人谈话时表示如果中国对于美国在自己的后花园势力过于庞大而感到不满的话，那么中国就要明白自己的利益也在于朝鲜，在于周边草木皆兵的邻国，在于一般意义上大国所要遵循的规则与标准。这一圈行将结束，奥巴马特使对于欧洲情况只是一笔带过，表示之于其自身利益欧洲还是要修补好欧盟(并且还叨叨英国不要那么着急的脱离欧盟)
Drone strikes don’t count as carrying a big stick
在一旁“叽叽喳喳”可不能和抡着警棍相比
Is all this nagging sustainable, especially if Mr Obama’s critics are right that he is somehow embarrassed by American leadership, and so is deliberately leaving a “vacuum” that lets foes flourish?
那么，所有这些“唠叨”能否持久?尤其是如果批评奥巴马的人士说对了——奥巴马对于美国的领导地位感到尴尬，所以才急于留下一个“真空”世界供敌人肆意发展。
The vacuum-avoidance theory of leadership, beloved of Republican hawks in Congress, is too crude. Not every problem is solved by America noisily taking charge. A sharper critique, as advanced in a new national-security strategy from the Project for a United and Strong America, a bipartisan group of ex-envoys and senior officials, compares the emerging world order to a fiercely competitive marketplace, in which America must invest, via engagement, to defend the open, rules-based international order vital to American interests.
国会上共和党鹰派提出要避免领导权力处于“真空”的理论，也太过简略。不是所有的问题都要美国大张旗鼓的出面处理。一篇言辞犀利的评论文章中写道美国要提出一个新的国家安全策略以保证自身的统一与强大，前特使与资深官员组成的双派组织也曾这样说到过。文章中还将新兴世界的秩序与竞争异常激烈的市场机制相比，建议美国必须要通过介入进行投资，从而建立一个开放的、有秩序的，最重要是之于美国的国际秩序。
Speaking softly suits Mr Obama. His desire to see other powers stop free-riding on American security guarantees is understandable. In a world of shifting power balances, it is sensible to appeal to the self-interests of others, especially after the overreach of the Bush era. But he is taking a risk. Step back too far from big sticks, and when America speaks, it may not be heard.
不愠不火的言辞适合奥巴马。他渴望看到其他大国不再免费搭乘“美国安全保卫”的班车，这也是可以理解的。权利制衡的世界，劝说他国的注意其自身利益是合理的，尤其是在经常指手画脚的布什政府之后。不过，奥巴马此招近乎是在赌博。把警棍远远的扔在一边，那么再当美国喊话的时候，还会有人听吗?
[2013.03.30]Bottoms up 经济转型：基本面分析
【导读：“拉动内需，经济转型”的口号喊了那么多年，或许内需老早就被拉起来了——只不过官方老是用“估计”代替“统计”，低估了我国实际消费量。】
Rebalancing the economy
经济转型
Bottoms up
基本面分析
Consumption in China may be much higher than official statistics suggest
官方数据或许大大低估了国内需求
Mar 30th 2013 | HONG KONG |From the print edition
AT HONG KONG airport, a couple hold an animated discussion about whether to buy a $350 polo shirt from Hugo Boss. Their conversation, like many in luxury shops across the city, is in Manda
